Not with a bang. Mon Jun 28

The financial year is stumbling towards the finishing line with another weak performance so far. The news from the G20 appears to be that the US want to continue with stimulus measures but the Europeans are for austerity (not sure about everyone else) and the general view is of a country by country approach rather than a co-ordinated strategy.

The market is down 0.5% at 11.40 am and my performance has been dragged down by Mml which is defying strength in gold to sell off further. The chart looked shabby on Friday afternoon and I would have been better off to sell the lot rather than just under a half. The stock is quite whippy and I get the feeling that there's a big seller overhanging the market. My inclination is to hang on now because it's quite possible that the seller will disappear after June 30th and the stock will whip back, and if not, the stock is close enough to levels where natural buyers will step in.

I've sold out of Telstra for a minor profit. I timed my buying quite well, getting in after the sell off from the initial euphoric rise on a deal with the government. If there was any enthusiasm for the stock, it should have been driving up and it wasn't, so because it wasn't behaving as I'd hoped, I got out rather than waiting for a stop. I also sold out more Challenger on some early strength. It's back down with the broad market now but I'd like to rebuild my position if it shapes up again.

My trade for the day is a short in Asciano. I'm assuming that this has run its race having bounced solidly in 3 waves since a low in May. I'm short at 167.5 with a stop just above last week's high of 173.

1.43 The market has been making an attempt to bottom and I've bought back shorts in Fmg at 437 and Ost at 309.

3.32 I'm beginning to think we're making a short term low. Fortescue has held quite well and is now up 7 at 443. It's probably a good indicator for the smaller resource sector. I don't think there's anything to buy right now but I'm hopeful that tomorrow morning might offer an opportunity or two.

Bought back a few Bsl at 217.

4.12 No further action, but the market edged up. Mml got smashed though, down at 415 and missed my chance to cut early.

Not much of a honeymoon. Fri Jun 25

The honeymoon rally for Julia Gillard lasted about 2 hours before the selling resumed yesterday. Another double dip inspired fall overnight has left us down a further 1.1% after an hour. It's the fourth day down and the third big one, so it would often be a good day for some buying but on an intraday basis, the Spi looks as if it hasn't found a low yet.

I've bought back the last of my Stockland short at 371 and 373 for a tiny profit after having to cover an 11 c dividend and having gone too early with my position, I'm happy to have got something out of it.

I've got my obsessive compulsive World Cup watching under control. Last night I went to bed early, got a decent night's sleep at last and watched the recorded games this morning. Great result for Japan, beautiful football and excellent news, along with S Korea's progression, for the Asian Confederation of which Australia is now a part - and nice for the arguments with my European friends who always claim that their qualification groups are far superior than the Asian ones. 

Anyway, enough about South Africa 2010, the point is that I've got enough energy to focus on my work. Two new trades to feature today, one long and one short.

The long is in Challenger. The rejection of the low yesterday was impressive and there is nice overlap with the previous congestion zone, suggesting that short term selling momentum has dissipated. There have also been a string of upgrades overnight - the stock is on a forward PE of 7.5 - and it's a much cleaner company to analyse, no longer the dodgy boom time vehicle that it was considered to be. Long at 338 and it has already started to reverse quite strongly.

The other featured trade is a short position in Fmg. This might be a sell on fact situation after the driving force behind the company, Andrew Forrest, was heavily involved in the mining industry's campaign against the RSPT and indirectly, the deposal of Kevin Rudd. There's still going to be a deal on the tax, it's probably factored in, but the plan is certainly not going to be dropped. Short at 446 with a stop above yesterday's high at around 465. I'm half expecting a quick tumble here because it's a nice trading vehicle for hot money in the resources sector.

3 pm The market is just bouncing off recent lows and may have done enough for the day. The two featured trades are doing well so far, Cgf is at 359 and Fmg at 437.

Broadly, it's a switch out of resources into defensives sort of day, with gold being the exception as most of the golds in the Xjo are up. I suppose gold is often a defensive but sometimes it moves with the cyclicals. Seems like it's a win-win situation for gold stocks at the moment, although sadly not Mml which is stalled just below 450.

4.10 pm There was more slippage to leave the market down 1.5%. I'm out of a third of my Cgf position at 360 and a few Mml at 440 as they disappoint.

Ruddy hell! Thu Jun 24

Australia's PM, Kevin Rudd, has stood down after his popularity had plummeted over the last few months, not helped at all by the proposed resources super tax. His (former) deputy, Julia Gillard, is the new leader and although she is a much more down to earth character, she is also part of the inner circle which has been controlling policy so it's quite a gamble that the electorate was tired of Rudd for personal reasons only.
I'm tired for personal World Cup reasons as our brave Socceroos went down fighting with a victory not quite enough to see them through to the knockout stages.
There was a "thanks goodness for that" rally early on, despite a flat night, but at 12.42 pm the Xjo index is up just 12 points. The big gainers have been the miners, particularly the iron ore stocks, although the picture is muddied with end of year movements and bounces from oversold lows in stocks like Cgf and Tse.
I got out of my Cgf at 347, which was roughly a reversal of yesterdays 5% fall. I even managed to buy and sell a few extra on the way.
I've put on a new position, a short in Bluescope Steel, which has had a much less pronounced retracement over the last month, more typical of a correction before a resumption of a downtrend. I'm short at 228 with a stop around 242.

4.11 The Gillard surge faded and the Xjo finished down 6 points. Macquarie was sold down nearly 5% after announcing a cautious outlook. The double dip recession - globally at least - is still a strong possibility. I'm happy to have a pretty neutral book.

Rejection. Wed Jun 22

An earlier start than usual for me because I have a few visitors coming today which will leave me no time for comments. The US indices fell in the afternoon session again and there's some decent short term momentum in the sell off. Here's the DJIA daily chart.

The rally to 10600 was about 50% of the fall from the April high. The rally in the Xjo has been very whippy, so I'm not keen to chase any shorts, but I'd be inclined to sell any recoveries in the next few days. No point worrying about that now, the Spi is down 45 points so we'll open weak, at least. Base metals held up and so did gold, so there are a few bright spots.

The risk/reward of being long has changed with the Dow weakness and given that we've sold after after getting close to the 4650 level, it's likely that the short term upside is more limited now.

10.20 Out of a few longs which I'm less confident about, like Ozl at 104 and the last of my Mre at 68. I've pulled the trigger and bought some Telstra at 328 as it seems like the short term profit taking is over and with the resources having tired, it's possible that attention will turn to this one. It's easier to see the logic with a look at the 60 minute chart. Emergency stop is at around 312, just below the last swing low.

2.51 With June 30th approaching and a fairly small set of positions on board, I'm in end of term mood. My visitors today were social and I've been playing table tennis. Even managed to win a game against a friend who's a bit of a champion but I suspect that after winning about 8 straight, he might have taken pity on me.

One thing I've noticed about table tennis is that I go a lot better if I don't try to hit winners but concentrate on staying in the game. I mentioned this to my skillful friend and he agreed - he used to play with an elderly Chinese gentleman at Easts Leagues Club in Bondi Junction and was usually beaten by the patient style of the old master. There are obviously parallels to be drawn with trading; stay in the game, manage risk, don't worry about winners, they'll come without you trying and don't take on old, frail looking Chinese guys.

3.06 I sold out of half my Cgf yesterday at 350, thinking that they were outperforming in a soft market and they did indeed reverse back down. They're now at 328 and I need to stop out of the rest as they're through the recent low of 334. I'm hoping for a small rally to get a better price.

Telstra is up to 330 though and my short in Sgp is going well. The other two positions are gold related and although they're down, it's not by much and most of the stocks in the sector are firmer.

4.10 We've outperformed on the downside again, with the market closing on its lows with a loss of 1.6%. The Hang Seng is down by less than 0.5% and US overnight futures are mildly firmer.

I've held the last of the Cgf as 5% seems overdone and I'm already only carrying a half position size.

I'd like to do some bargain hunting but might try to pick up a cheapie early tomorrow if there's a bounce and one of my stocks gets left behind.

Quite resolute. Tue Jun 22

The early action is quite resolute, just a 0.5% fall despite the US selling off to close flat after strong early gains. I'm not too sure what to make of it as I'm dazed with fatigue after another night of World Cup action.

The Xjo is getting close to the swing high at 4653 in mid May before the last drive down. It's a reason to be cautious.

2.21 The rally petered out around 11.30 am and we've slipped to a 42 point loss. Mml is up though, which is encouraging because gold fell overnight.

Otherwise I'm not adding any new shorts because the rallies are far enough extended that I don't want to short without the suggestion of a lower high. Once a trend sets in, it can be quite stubborn so while I'm comfortable enough shorting a choppy overlapping correction, I need a bit more evidence of weakness now.

On the long side, I'm interested in Telstra which surged yesterday on a deal with the government but has quickly retraced much of that move. The move through 329 was quite significant and if 320 becomes support then I'd like to pick some up around there. Here's the daily.

4.10 An afternoon of water torture for the market as we edged ever lower to finish down 1.2%. Just about the worst in this time zone and perhaps, a little too gloomy given that we rallied much less than most Asian markets yesterday.