Passing the time. Fri Apr 15

With no significant lead from the US indices, the Aussie market is waiting for the Chinese figures which come out at noon. Gold recovered overnight and rallied up to a new high so that's the sector that is moving.
I sold some Sbm stock at 226 and finished selling Intrepid at 222 this morning as early promise has faded. I still have Resolute but exitted Regis on strength yesterday.
My short in Lynas has edged up to 258 but I'm reasonably happy because Molycorp was strong in the US overnight but Lyc (and Aru) are showing signs of disengaging from that particular train.
I've shorted some Fmg at 661 as they also push up on rumours that Chinese growth will surprise to the upside. I'm looking for a lower high here.

I want to buy some One Steel but the stock is going nowhere so I don't need to chase it. When a chart is as weak as this, I do go and look at the numbers and the stock is very cheap with a hedged earnings stream, so I don't expect nasty surprises.

I plan to use 225 as a stop and hope to get set around 230. I'm hoping for another leg up and given the value in the stock, a move above 260 is easily possible.

11.37 Approaching noon but the market has shown its hand and has fallen by 23 points. Sold a few more Lynas at 256 as they started to slip.

12.12 As you were, the market is square again after the figures - roughly as expected with the tightening bias to continue.
I sold out of Sbm at 225 and bought a few One Steel at 234 as they're slightly sought after and it's not a bad place to start buying.

3.00 The recovery at noon was fleeting and the index has slipped again to be just off its lows at 4856, down 28. Fmg has come back - I added a few more to the short at midday and have bought that back at 655 and 651. I did much the same in Bld and Lyc and that's helped to get the day on track because they're falling gently while the longs are hanging in there.
Ipl is down another 9 at 408. I could have shorted a few this morning on a little recovery up to 421 but I was hoping for something in the mid 420s. I'm irrationally tempted to buy some but won't. I suppose that if it had a quick plunge to 400, I'd have some sort of justification.

4.10 No lasting bounces and the index is closing at the lows, down 32.

It was a minor up day for me but I'm pretty happy with my positions, I've worn some pain on a couple of the shorts but the rallies didn't last and time is running out for them on the long side. The only problem position is a long in Karoon which rallied a bit yesterday but is back close to support again at 704. I did sell a few in the high teens.

Sneaking up. Thu Apr 14

Almost an hour in and the Asx 200 is 20 points lower and it looks like yesterday was a pause before more weakness. European indices recovered but the US didn't do much. Oil and gold have muted recoveries while base metals sank again. The large miners are down around a percent and the top 20 generally is a bit weaker than the overall market. Some of the smaller caps are having a sneaky rally. Regis (gold) is up on a positive quarterly cash flow although I haven't got much left; I've just been feeding my last stock into the buying this morning. Rsg and Sbm are showing signs of turning and Iau is up.
My energy longs are a bit softer. Karoon is the problem position. It's fairly choppy so I've got a wide stop, below the last swing low. I was hoping yesterday's late recovery would feed into today but there's been no joy yet.
The key here is that the rally has broken through resistance but it's only just holding a little trend channel.

Otherwise Boral has bounced 10 to 507 and is just below the sell signal. I'd bought about half of my position back in the 490s so I've reshorted at 507.

11.04 Yesterday, I got Lynas wrong early and recovered later. I sold out the long stock this morning and I've shorted it at 256. I'm anticipating a lower high and it may be that the stock can get a bit closer to the recent high at 270 before falling over, if I'm right. At least, the fill is better than yesterday where I was chasing the trade.

2.04 Back in the office after a couple of hours away to find the market down by 35 but off the lows. Not a lot of change.

I bought back the last of my Ipl short in the low 420s and it has fallen further to confirm a sell signal. The chart is much clearer now and I'll be looking to re-short into rallies or flat consolidations.

4.14 The final result was a 27 point loss as the Asx 200 fell below 4900 to close at 4884.

I reduced my longs in Iau, Kar, Lnc, Rsg and Sbm but added a small new position in Toll. I'm assuming that this will make a higher low because the downtrend has lost all momentum. It has retraced about two thirds of the recent swing so I'm to start nibbling at a long here.

Otherwise, Boral fell back a little to 505.

I'm not quite in synch yet, 2 days up then 2 days down for a very minor gain so far this week.

Not so fast....Wed Apr 13

The market isn't ready for more of the same unidirectional action. The early sell off was quickly reversed with a 23 point drop turning into a 12 point gain in quick time. The lead overnight was more of a catch up to action in Asian and Australian markets and gold recovered Asian losses before matching them in the end. Oil fell solidly though as it continued its reversal.
So far, I've got the intraday stuff fairly right. I've closed out my short in Awe at 162.5, bought back the short stock in Fmg at 647 (still have puts), closed out the Tol short at 572 and nibbled at Ipl at 431.My gold longs are showing signs of recovering today and US gold major Newmont actually gained last night. Aussie gold behemoth Ncm has also rallied from early lows although it's still fractionally lower.
There seems to be support for Linc so I picked up a few at 284. I still like the short in Bld and sold a few more at 500.
The rare earths stock were largely unscathed in the US so after dabbling with a short in Lynas early on, I've cut it and reversed for an intraday squeeze.
My overall view is that oil and gold are just having a breather so I'm trying to hold on until proven wrong.
Here's the spot gold chart; it was a clear breakout above 1440 and the trend looks solid enough.

11.15 No new trades although there is always the one that got away. Today's example is Qantas. I was thinking about buying this yesterday for the same reason that I didn't expect Tol to fall much more ie big users of oil and oil is having a nice reversal. I had to be quick though and I couldn't quite bring myself to pay 215 when I could have pre-empted yesterday for 210, 211. Should have done though, it's raced up to 221.

12.11 Or maybe not not so fast...another reversal and the market has just been almost back down to the lows. I'm punting support is close but it could go either way and the HSI has opened and drifted down about half of one percent.

2.05 Support held and the market is square now. I suspect the Asx 200 has topped and it's just a question of how far it retraces.

2.47 Bought back into Intrepid at 223 a little while ago. The stock held support this morning and there's a chance of a quick reversal above 240. Stop is at 210.

The index is firmly positive again with a rise of 18 points.

4.20 The gains held; 12 points up to 4911.
A funny day, I traded ok intraday but lost overall because the small cap gold and oils are still struggling to find their feet while the larger caps had minor bounces. If the tiddlers can recover, I'll be in good shape because the bounce will probably be strong.

Go, go, Gagarin. Tue Apr 12

Sputnik might be coming back down to earth as it looks as if we've had a blow off top. The index is down just 17 but it was a night when USD strength reasserted itself at the expense of oil, gold etc. Base metals were steady but Alcoa is down after market following a disappointing result and that has set the tone here.
My smallish cap longs were smacked early, especially as they're largely oil and gold, but they're steadying now while the larger cap shorts are gradually capitulating.
I've had some May 650 puts in Fmg which have been ebbing away but they're bouncing back today and I shorted some stock at 674 too.
I've also added a short in Awe at 170. There was a reversal yesterday and a pullback is probably in order.

I'm nearly out of my short in Sek for a small profit as they're holding up today and there's more good news for them relating to their Brazilian offshoot. I've also cut the Aru long - maybe just temporarily - as the stock isn't responding to overnight sector strength and a rare earths conference in Australia.
Tol is slightly weaker and I've bought a few back because the oil price drop is a plus for them.
Ipl looks ok now. The lower high I was punting may have eventuated. Added a few more at 443.

11.06 The second mini bounce of the session has faded and it's a day when the beaten up short players might start to gather confidence. It's in the balance now but the possibility is definitely there of a snowball effect.

11.53 Short again in Boral. Wasn't patient enough with the previous short, partly because the entry was poor. This is a better entry because there was an a-b-c retracement which failed to overlap previous support in the mid 520s. There's a good chance this is heading into the 480's. Short at 510 and the stock is down at 502 now.

The fall in the index is gathering momentum. Down 40 points now.

12.09 Got out of the Intrepid long on the open at 236, it was the only gold that opened firmer.

Also sold a third of my Linc long at 293. I decided to keep the rest as there was some support but the stock is down to 288 now that the index has fallen harder. I'm hoping that 280 support will hold but I'm debating whether the risk is too high that there'll be a c wave down. In fact, I've just convinced myself and have sold the last 2/3 of the position at 288. Entry was at 292.

I'm a little bit in love with this stock but if it does hold 280 and rally again then I won't mind chasing an entry too much because the picture would then be very bullish.

1.35 It's a pretty big snowball now with the market down 70 points; colloquially known as a Ricketson.

I've added a trading short in Lynas but have been nibbling away at things. Bought back a few Awe at 165, Bld at 500, Fmg at 660, Ipl at 434 and Tol at 575.

4.18 The index kept grinding lower but managed a small late bounce to finish down 72 at 4899.

It wasn't a bad day in the end, the small caps didn't really recover but the large caps fell through the day. I did buy back some Linc at around 288 as the buying returned.

Out of the trading short in Lynas but it looks like one to play from the short side again tomorrow.

New high and a reversal....although not incredibly stretched.

Better start. Mon Apr 11

Well, it's a better start for me as I begin to get in step with the market's current rhythm. The gold longs are doing pretty well, as is the energy long in Linc in a minor way. Shorts in Tol and Tls are weak or flat and I'm also short Ipl and Sek now.
Not really sure about Ipl because the strength is in resources but it's a strange choppy chart and as a hedge for the rest of my book, it works ok, with a tight stop just above the last swing high. Short at 440.
Actually, it looks like the sort of thing where I could be stopping out by this afternoon....I hope not.

Sek looks a lot like Tol, with a five wave swing which looks complete. Short at 667 with a stop above the recent high.

I'm long another energy play now, Karoon. I was watching it this morning and there was a lot of stock offered just below the recent high so I was tossing up whether to buy into it when a large buyer hoovered up the lot at 730, 731. I chased it up and got set at an average of 735 as the vacuum sucked it quickly up to 750. It's at 745 now. It's a nice breakout, once more breaking back into the consolidation band which held through mid November into mid February. I think it can acclerate from here. Stop is around 715, 720.

11.38 I got my knickers in a twist over a few stocks last week, one of them was Intrepid where I cut a long on a minor technical break without giving it time and a couple of extra cents to consolidate. Iau recovered and has shot up today. I got a few shares in the low 220s after just missing out on the opening match. The stock is well bid and up 8% now at 231.

2.36 It's the ultimate V bounce; the Asx 200 is now clearly above February's high, just before the tsunami.

4.10 I managed to hang on to the gains as the day unfolded although the positions didn't really get on a roll. I'm still balancing longs and shorts so the net dollar exposure is flat.

The Asx 200 is closing on 5000 after a 30 point up day left the index at 4971.