More of the same. Fri Apr 8

The Asx 200 keeps making new highs although it's a game of inches. On Monday the high was 4902 which has been followed by 4905, 4913, 4924 and so far today, 4929.
Like most traders, I'm pretty bored with it and always looking for the next thing.
So far this morning, I've stopped out of Osh at 734 and added to my short in Tol at 594 only to see it rally back to 598.
The golds are hanging in there, Mincor is firm and Tls is down a couple so my overall book is ok.
US listed rare earths stock, Molycorp, is driving the sector globally. It was up over 10% last night and while Lynas has gapped too far for my liking, I've picked up some stock in Aru at 132. I sold my longs at around 137,138 earlier this week and I didn't think the swing was over, so it's nice to get another chance.

2.19 It's turning into a solid up day with the index a tick below the intraday peak of 4942. I bought some Linc at 292 before lunch. They've had a fairly shallow a-b-c pullback and look ready to go again. The resistance at 3 bucks is significant but the set up is excellent as this has the potential to be a 3rd wave.

4.18 The Asx 200 finished higher by 32 points at 4941. It's a difficult market to trade and I've been chopped around this week, small dollars but the opportunities to have gone the other way look pretty obvious in hindsight. It's a chart of a short squeeze; you generally get a series of tight range days with few little pullbacks to allow you to cover or reverse at good levels. The range today was a bit larger and the last two Fridays have been solid which is another indicator of Friday covering.

Stalling. Thu Apr 7

Another gain eked out despite the bail out in Portugal and a potential impasse with the US budget. The Aussie market has peeled off from some early gains to be just above breakeven after an hour.
Base metals were firm last night with nickel bouncing 4% and copper 3%.
I haven't really put on any new trades this morning, just traded around existing positions.
I stopped out of Iau at 205. It was a risky buy at the top of the range and unlike the other golds, it seems to be under some selling pressure.

11.23 I had to stop out of Wsa at 700 as it took a lead from the nickel price. Also in the nickel space, I've gone long Mcr at 144. It's in retracement mode but has just announced a "spectacular" nickel find (their words) and given it had been sold down because of the early closure of an older mine, there may be a few shorts around. Stop is at about 134 and if there's a squeeze, it could move fast.

Also out of the short in Ipl at 425 and 426. I'm undecided about this so I took it off for a small profit.

11.51 I've been caught out in Iau as it has reversed back to be down just 1 at 210. Frustrating but an occupational hazard.

I've replaced it with a long in fellow gold stock Sbm which is gathering strength after making a higher low in mid March.

11.58 Earlier on, I also stopped out of Bsl at 204 and Ost at 247 for a small profit and a small loss respectively. They're both failing to accelerate.

It has been a frustrating period for me and I'm trading skittishly.

12.39 The rally is not going to give up without a fight but there are increasing signs of exhaustion. I've just bought May 290 puts in Telstra at 10 because there's a sharp swing higher in 5 waves which was followed yesterday by a break of the previous day's low. There's no serious weakness yet but a run of the mill retracement might take the stock down to the low 270s while the options would still retain 4 or 5 cents of premium if the rally were to keep going into the 290s.

2.23 Also short Toll at 593.5 as it also has a swing up from the lows which subdivided into 5 waves. It's always going to struggle when fuel prices are surging and may be due a quick trip to 560 something.

4.10 Paladin sold off steadily all day and I probably could have cut earlier. Out at 371 (v 378) although some sales at 392 meant it was breakeven.

The Asx 200 closed down 5 but it's the first down day for a while.

Start a new game. Wed Apr 6

Gold broke above recent highs last night with a strong 1.5% move. Australian gold stocks have tended to underperform the price of the underlying in recent months notwithstanding a recent rebound. As the broad market looks increasingly weary, I've added a new short in Ipl and a couple more gold longs.
Ipl had a surprising reversal day yesterday. I'm in two minds about this one but I got a reasonable fill at 437 on a higher open and I'm going with short term momentum. Stop could be above yesterday's highs although now that I'm in the black here, I think I'll just use my entry level.

The first gold long is Regis. I bought the open at 226 and stop is around 217. It has made a breakout now and, like the Intrepid chart, it's had a tight correction near the top of the range which may signal bullish action ahead.

The other one is Resolute. Another correction and then pushing on. Long at 129.5 with stop around 120 and now that it has regained the breakdown level, there isn't too much resistance until the old highs.

I think there could be a new game starting along the lines of buy gold and sell everything else. Or else I'm on my own here...

I sold a few Pdn at 392 early on and they've dipped to 385. Sold half the Bsl at 202.5 and a few Ost at 247 as they heartily rejected a new high yesterday.

12.56 The index is mildly weaker and has been for most of the day. My gold stocks haven't moved much after their early gap openings but Newcrest might be a pointer for the sector. It has kept running and looks like a stock that has further to go.

1.43 The force is strong with this one. The index is back in the black, albeit by 1 point.

4.13 The now customary late rally and the Asx 200 closed at 4913, rising by 13 points.
Most of my positions went ok, the shorts squeezed up towards the close. I presume that half the market is short them. Ipl and Osh were the best of the shorts. Ipl closed at 429 and I bought back a few Osh at 719; they finished at 721.

Mustn't grumble. Tue Apr 5

A change in fortunes for me after I stopped fighting the tape. The best of my 3 new longs is Paladin which has risen 14 to 393. The new short in Osh has performed ok as it made a marginal new high at 730 but is now lower by 6 at 721.
Wsa has edged up some more but the market is finally looking tired and the European and US leads were dull. Oil was the outperformer, with Brent rising to USD 120, which is supposed to be a level where economic growth starts to become impacted. The oil plays here are not so hot today though with Santos and Woodside also lower.
Gold keeps surprising to the upside: it didn't have a large rise but I think that people have been looking for a sell off. I've bought Intrepid at 210, although it's a tad lower now at 208. There was a breakout the other day which I didn't take and I've put on the trade hoping for another push up. I've got a stop at 200.
I'm buying near the top of the range but I like the higher low last month and the way that the stock is starting to move in large swings.

The expression "mustn't grumble" is usually the preface to a whinge and mine is that I've completely butchered Lynas. I was so bullish after the 200 breakout but stupidly tried to put on an intraday trading short one day and completely missed the move. I also didn't pull the trigger to buy the early pullback on Friday even though I'd written about doing just that if it were to happen.

One thing to remember is that great opportunities turn up on a regular basis so just shrug your shoulders, laugh at yourself, and move on.

Maybe Paladin is the next good one for me. Unlike Lynas, it looks like a retracement and not a breakout, but it has that lovely parabolic shape. Fingers crossed for a quick move to 420 or 440.

11.59 The gains are gently evaporating. Here's the Asx 200.

I was looking at images of parabolas. Here's the path of a dropped golf ball courtesy of intmath.com.

2.34 No change from the RBA.

The market is making a minor sell signal on the 30 minute chart after a new high. Could be a weak finish.

4.05 This rally is a Hollywood uber-baddy; it's not going to die easily.

4.11 In the last hour, my longs edged down and my shorts ground higher so the day was flat and a trifle disappointing.

The Asx 200 managed a 13 point gain, finishing at a fraction of a point above 4900.

Battling. Mon Apr 4

Thank goodness I haven't got much of a book because I'm still swimming against the tide. The rally goes on and the market is up 33 at 4895 which is just a tad below the day's high of 4898. The US overnight lead was firm but not outstanding, however the PMI figures which came out showed slowing but growing economic conditions in Europe and the US and although it didn't give a fillip to base metal prices, the growth stocks have had a good kick this morning.
Boral started to recover on Friday and has popped straight through my stop after a weak opening. Because I'm in the wrong mind set, I've watched it without stopping out yet. The correct action would have been to cut and reverse because there's a buy signal now. It's probably too late to chase a long but I do need to get out of the short. It's not a clean chart because of the overlap and there's the possibility that the rally won't go too far but that's neither here nor there for the moment.

11.14 The Chinese PMI bounced back in March and although it was below expectations, the glass half full view is prevalent.

Uranium, priced weekly, also bounced back and I'm buying Paladin again. Last time, I bought a short term peak and stopped out fairly quickly. I was tempted to go long on Friday but because of my bearish bias I missed the chance of a low risk entry and have to use a bigger stop (around 355) now. Long at 377.

I haven't got many so far, it's up 3% and there's usually one dip in the course of a trading day.

1 pm The index is holding the early gains and is sitting at 4895.

I was thinking about buying Bsl and Ost last week but the stocks couldn't gain traction despite the overall strength. It's possible that the search is now on for laggards because performance is better today. In recent days and weeks, the steel stocks have rarely closed strongly so I'm planning to buy just a few here.

Both stocks have leverage to a steel price recovery. One Steel is much better value for an investor because it also makes money from iron ore but it means that leverage to a recovery is held back. Bluescope will be a beneficiary of an expected reduction in iron ore prices in the near term so may be more attractive to traders.

The charts are reasonable, showing choppy rallies that could catch fire and a series of higher lows to provide support and stop levels.

Here's the daily chart for Bsl....

...and Ost.

2.34 Bsl and Ost are quite well bid. I made a start at 201 and 249 respectively. The market is showing signs of coming back although I've bought back most of my short in Boral at around 520. I calculate that the emotional stop cost me an extra 8 cents.

I've put on a new short in Oil Search at 723 as it might be making a double top. I'll give it a touch of room to make a minor new high but the stop will be tight at around 732 which always takes the sting out of having to stop out.

3.03 The rise in the Xjo has been pared to 18 points.

Out of the Aru long at 138 and the last Bld short at 519. Bought more Pdn at 378.5.

3.30 I've put on a few longs today and just one short, while stopping out of another. Wsa is close to a stop too and I've decided to move it above the last major high at 696 in early March because I don't want to be buying too much after a strong rebound and the stop level is more realistic than the 680 that I was originally using.

4.14 A late blip left the Asx 200 at 4887, up 25.

Bsl and Ost closed quite strongly so I added a couple more. Pdn closed near the highs too. Unfortunately, so did my shorts in Osh and Wsa. I also have some May 650 puts n Fmg which are down to about 22, 23 but with plenty of time to go, I'm not too worried about them.