Loosening the yuan. Mon Jun 21

The Chinese currency leash is going to be loosened so that the yuan can strengthen against the USD in order to take the pressure off exporters everywhere else. This has helped US overnight futures to jump around 1.5% while Japanese and Korean markets lead the way with Australia following. Chinese mainland markets are less convinced though. So we're up to the new retracement high I was looking for but there doesn't seem to be a lot of reason to sell; it seems like the market could continue to grind up.

Gold was firm overnight so Mml has rallied 8 to 453 which makes me more confident about a rally because the stock has overlapped the last swing low which was on June 7th at 448. Here's the daily.

I've got a new long position in Cgf. I bailed out of a Challenger long last week because I became concerned about another new low to complete a short term pattern. This actually happened but the stock has rejected this low - so far - and I'm nibbling at a long position with an average entry price of 347. Stop is below Friday's spike low, while my expectations are for the stock to reverse up to 370ish in the short term.

The World Cup continues and my trading activity has slumped which is apparently a pattern that's being repeated globally. Energy levels are flagging too!

Most impressive teams so far are all South American: Chile, Argentina and Brazil.

4.04 Most impressive sector today is iron ore with Ago, Fmg, Mgx and Mmx all up 5% or more. Fortunately my assistant is long Ago and Mgx because I missed the other two, though I'm hoping that a couple of positions in Mre and Ozl (not iron ore stocks) with similar charts will have their day in the sun tomorrow.

We're approaching the end of day match out and the market is up 1.4%, which is a mild underperformance relative to Asian markets.

Some profit taking, especially in Telstra, which is up 11 at 334 but well off a 346 high, has left the Xjo with a 61 point gain.

Yes, no, maybe? Fri Jun 18

After the US market battled to a small gain overnight and the Europeans had slightly bigger rises of around 0.5%, the Aussie market has risen cautiously so far. Up 0.4% at 11.19 am. I'm still looking for further strength and I'm planning to sell a few longs out if the market can push up above Wednesday's high. At present, the Xjo chart is still favourable but there's precious little momentum with Japanese and Korean markets flat. Here's the updated Xjo 60 minute chart.

Gold is still strong and it's a shame I sold out of my Lgl options, although I understand why. The reason is that it can be quite difficult to trade two different time periods in the same portfolio. In my personal superannuation fund, which is longer term, I've been able to hold on to a long position in a gold stock but in my regular trading book the idea is to get in and out quickly. Sometimes I don't get a second chance to get back in.

Actually, I have found a substitute. I've put on a long position in Medusa Mining, a small Phillipines based gold miner. This has been lagging and is tracing out a pennant style correction, I'm guessing. I'm long at 438 with a tight stop around 427. I'm a bit concerned that it's lagging for a reason and looking at the 60 minute chart, there's a chance that it makes another minor low before the correction is over. However, the gold sector is strong and the stop is close so I'm prepared to buy this. Here is the daily chart.

3.12 Still undecided with the market up as high as 34 points (24 now) but not quite reaching the Wednesday highs. Mml hasn't moved much but a few of the other lagging gold miners are having a run, so I'm hopeful. I'm restricted to trading in the top 200 but Rsg, which is in the top 300, is an example.

I'm also long Pna at 50.5 which I bought two days ago. I didn't feature it because I chased the entry having missed 48-49 cents. Anyway, I've just sold a few at 52 so I've averaged down a fraction. Pna is a copper and gold producer and not a pure play so I was unsure what would happen today with copper down 3% and gold up 1.5%. The answer is that it's stronger but lagging the golds.

4.11 Not much change, up 24.6 points. I'm out of Awc at 161.5 and some Ozl at 105. Added a few Mml at 443 and they've finished at 445.

Famous last words. Thu Jun 17

"Famous last words" is what my assistant said yesterday as he glanced at the blog and noticed that I said we looked set fair for another firm day. It's past midday now and we've had the June Spi expiry with no major fireworks, only a slow descent of 19 points. In mitigation, I mean that the trend is up and looks incomplete, so that down sessions are more about gap filling at the moment. Here is a 60 minute chart of the Xjo index.

We drove up early yesterday and chopped around for the balance of the day. It looks like we're doing some more retracing today but I expect to see yesterday's high beaten before we get much of a pullback in the very short term and even then, the rally is probably incomplete.

Although I'm playing around with a couple of trades, they're generally short term things which I'm late into. So, no featured trade as yet.

3.11  I was altogether too sanguine about today and the market fall gathered steam so that we're down 44 points. I've cut my Ipl position at 306 which looks like a temporary peak and is still short of my target. But I wanted to take something off the table and I think there's a chance I could get another buying opportunity in Ipl. I can't find any interesting short positions yet, except for one I already have in Sgp.

4.12 A slight recovery for a close of down 32 points. Tomorrow will be the test.

Panic early. Wed Jun 16

My short in Cey backfired as the Thai holders, Banpu, lifted their stake to 19.9%, presumably as a prelude to a full bid. I'd been fairly relaxed about them because broker opinion suggested it was a passive stake with potential FIRB approval problems related to a takeover. So I panicked at the open and paid 460 which made it my worst trade for a while as my average short price was around 422. I'm glad I cut when I did, they spiked up to 473 and are sitting at 467.

Otherwise, most of my positions are long and performing ok. I've added a new long position in Awe. This is tricky because it's probably only a retracement rally but it's just made a 4th higher low in the the last few weeks - admittedly without substantially higher highs to go with it - so I think there's a good chance of a squeeze up. Long at 209.

2.08 I'm much less bearish in the short term since my idea of a higher low and a narrowing range for the Xjo index has been blown away. There was a higher low (which I missed) but the market is really extending as it seems like the various crises have eased apart from the Gulf oil spill. I'm pretty confident now of a rally to 4650 and maybe further. On the big picture, I'm still bearish for the year but maybe it doesn't swing down again for a couple of months. Here's the Xjo chart.

4.18 A reasonably strong close although I sold fractions of my long positions. It looks set fair for another firm day.

Polyphasic sleeping. Tue Jun 15

Back after a long weekend which allowed me to stay up and watch Australia's humiliation at the hands of a vibrant, young German team. Sleeping in 2 hours multiples is not that great though and last night I set the recorder, which was much smarter, enabling me to whizz through a couple of typically cagey opening games this morning.

The market is also cagey, with the two overnight US sessions cancelling each other out. Nevertheless, I've got a feature trade already. A long position in Oz Minerals at 102.5. I think that this might have made a higher low after the first leg of a bounce which started on May 21st and rallied from 97 to 110. This time the bounce could have started from 99.5, so my stop is a cent or so below that. I'm looking for something around 110 as a basic target, with the potential of pushing a few cents higher.

Base metals have been recovering well over the last few days and they were helped along on Friday by better than expected EU industrial production for April and upward revisions for March.

11.51 Getting cold feet about Cgf because the last leg down, since a slightly lower high at 380, looks like it might need to make a 5th wave low. Out at 348.

4.13 No further changes as the market finished unchanged. Resources were firmer though at the expense of everything else.