EOQ. Thu Mar 31

It's the final day of the first quarter and I'm relieved since the recovery rally has probably been accentuated as funds are happy to see the market higher. Since, I got out of my longs a couple of days ago, I've missed the latest push.
Over the last couple of years there has been an absence of window dressing on the final day, unsurprising since the authorities watch the action carefully. The focus is turning to the possibility of some minor weakness once April begins and the market is down 6 after 85 minutes of trading.

11.27 I got impatient with my long position in Lynas and put on a trading short without a sell signal. I've paid the price as the stock has resumed trading after a minor raising and announcement of a nice deal with Sojitz. The stock opened at 226 and I cut my short there. It went higher and pulled back but is holding around 227. Planned production is to be doubled and with first mover advantage, the picture looks very rosy for Lynas now. I hope to get a buying opportunity over the next few days.

I'm now short Boral. I was long this for 4 or 5 days and sold out at 505 when it was clear that the stock wasn't sought after. It has been tipping over slowly for a few days and has slipped below the low of the last two days. Short at 499 with a stop at around 510.

12.36 The Asx 200 is drifting around but is now up 6 with some bullish momentum remaining.

This week I've been completely preoccupied with organising an overseas trip for later in the year. When my concentration isn't focussed on the market it's quite easy to put on silly little trades and waste money. I'm paying attention today and can feel the difference which seems to mainly involve the quality of the looking....it's something like a cat hunting a mouse. Watching intently and yet, quite patient. I wish I could bottle it.

3.48 Actually, the concentration didn't last long since I've decided to do nothing much until the new quarter begins. The market has pushed on to a new high at 4846, up 24. I don't think it has a lot to do with window dressing, the intraday charts looked ready to go a little higher. More precisely, the window dressing is probably making itself apparent by a lack of selling into some mild strength.  

4.10 EOQ or end of quarter has arrived and the index has finished at 4838. December's close was 4745 so it's in keeping with the range trading market of the last year.

Wrong but unscathed. Wed Mar 30

I didn't get the lower high I was hoping for after a strong night in the US and a solid one in Europe that has led to gains this morning. The momentum is still strong and the index is up 37 points after 70 minutes.
I have very few positions and they're small size so although I'm net short, the damage is minimal.
Lynas is in a trading halt with the company due to announce details of a capital raising and a strategic agreement, presumably with Japanese company Sojitz.
I'm just waiting on developments before putting on any new trades. The index has just reached a level which could provide resistance. Over the last few days, I kept telling myself (and not quite listening) that it was too early to start shorting things but the Asx 200 is reaching a point where the equation looks better.

12.06 The index is holding on to the gains and is 41 points higher at 4797.

I changed my mind on All and sold out at 322, a couple of cents below my entry level. I was looking for it to take off and it hasn't.

2.08 Both the steel stocks that I follow are looking promising again as if their choppy rallies could get another lease of life. Here's Bsl....

...and One Steel, on a daily basis.

3.14 I'm obviously not the only one who's too clever by half because the index shot up to 4839 - a rise of 83 - before easing back to where it is now, 4822.

Fortescue is a conundrum. It's nudging into the level from which it broke down. I don't really want to cut it though so I've bought some May 650 puts at 32 and I'll buy back the stock. The option premium is discounted for the Easter public holidays and Anzac day which makes them reasonable in my terms. If the rally fails to break through resistance then the stock can drop back to 600 quite quickly.

 4.13 The Asx 200 closed up 66 at 4822.

My book is tiny now. Seek had a good day, rallying 16 to 669; I sold a couple along the way at 664.

Lyc is in a trading halt pending the capital raising and Fmg eased back to close at 639 where I bought back half of my short stock. I also have a very small short position in Ozl which did very little.

I'll keep watching Bsl and Ost. They slipped back from their highs and I'm in two minds about them.

Light duties. Tue Mar 29

The US market mimicked us with a low volume, slightly weaker day....have they no ideas of their own? It's more of the same here today and so far, I've sold the balance of the Lynas position at 213 (v 209). It's now shaping up as a potential trading short. I'd like to see it trade at 209 which would be a break of yesterday's low. However, I've shorted a few at 211 with more on the offer at 212. The stop is 220 and a pull back to around 195 looks plausible.

Otherwise, it's more tinkering. I've shorted more Fmg, bought a couple more All, and once again, put on trading shorts in Osh and Ozl. Wsa was weak early and I bought back most of the short at 647 which took that little trade into the black. I'll probably sell some more on a bounce.
Mincor never rebounded yesterday but there was some minor strength on the open and I sold the last of the position at 137.5 which was a breakeven result.

12.09 The index found some support so I've been scrabbling back into a couple of trading shorts with no harm done. I'm still looking for another minor swing down so I'm trying to reshort where I can.

12.20 There's a shift into defensives. My watchlist is quite high beta and the only stocks up are Bld, Qan, Sek and Tls while most of the resource stocks are down.

3.38 The market has been grinding up for most of the day. I got out of the Osh and Wsa shorts at good levels and some Ozl but Fmg and Lyc have squeezed against me. On the long side, Sek has done well and Aristocrat is doing nothing. All very nondescript.

4.11 The Asx 200 finished up 22 at 4756 which is 7 points below yesterday's high. If there's a weak overnight lead then there's the possibility of another swing down, which is what I'm looking for. Here's a 30 minute chart.

Prior convictions. Mon Mar 28

The rebound continued apace overnight and it has had no impact on the Aussie market so far. In fact, the Asx 200 is lower by 7 points after an hour. Base metals, oil and gold were little changed and the AUD was firmer.
With the onset of a new trading week, any convictions I had about my positions have evaporated and my instinct is to get out of everything and wait for inspiration to strike.
So, out of Aax at 345 (v 340), Kzl at 64.5 (v 57.5)  Pdn at 374 (v 381) as they suffer from continued problems in Fukishima, and some of the Mcr at 144. I bought back the short in Ozl at 154.5 (v 157.5) as they were sold down at the open but have actually added slightly to the small shorts in Fmg, Osh and Wsa with mixed results so far.
Lynas is quite well bid in a slipping market and Sek is holding its own too.

I can see myself potentially buying back into Aax and Pdn as Aax has just announced another contract win and is holding the small gains while Pdn, along with the other main uranium stocks Era and Ext, is recovering from an early 3% dip.
The race looks run in Mincor, they slipped to 138 on light volume, and I might get the last few long stock away on a retracement.

There's decent momentum in the Asx 200's rebound and this Thursday marks the last day of the quarter. It still looks too early to put on shorts but the easy gains are gone on the long side. The short positions I do have are just small trading positions and their purpose is partly psychological, to keep me balanced between bullishness and bearishness.

2.25 The market isn't doing much and neither am I. Lynas is up to 217 and Sek is unchanged at 639.

I've jobbed some Fmg, Osh and Wsa for a few dollars my way and I'm holding onto a couple of small short balances in Fmg (ok) and Wsa (underwater).

I also got out of the last of my Ost position, near the open, at 250 (v 244).

Regarding Aax and Pdn. I got back into Aax at 347 but only for a small position and I've left Paladin alone because it hasn't managed to recover and I expect it may weaken further, potentially providing a better entry.

4.13 The index ground lower for most of the afternoon before recovering to a 9 point loss on the day.

A flat day for me with some minor jobbing paying for a hit in Pdn.

Bought a handful of All on the close at 325. I'm sceptical about the story and the valuation of this stock but the market isn't. It's the first close above the previous day's high for 13 bars which might imply a very weak stock but the fall has been minor especially in the context of the broader market's performance.

Flaky. Fri Mar 25

My trading has felt flaky lately because I've been leaping in and out of positions but it's working so I'll stick with it. This morning is another day when I'm rotating positions fast. There is a logic to it; the index has leapt back from the brink but it's also fast approaching the breakdown level.

On an individual stock basis, some are powering through the breakdown level - if the stock movement was one of the many that tracked the index - and some look as it they will stall. I'm nibbling at a couple of shorts but I'm also concerned that the stocks could charge ever onwards so it's cautious stuff. I'm also easing out of a couple of longs on the back foot as, being a Friday, and having had a strong open after a strong week the market could peel back today.

First though, a couple of straightforward new longs.

Aax made a buy signal on the open after a shallow four day congestion. I got a few stock at 340 before it pushed on.

Online employment agency Seek has been punished lately after an unexpected loss in a relatively small part of the business. I bought a few yesterday at 631 and finished off this morning at 635. A buy signal would be confirmed with sales at 647. I like the shape of the chart; the last leg down from 734 to 606 has a 5 wave pattern. Stop would be at about 610.

My overnight longs have performed well and I've sold a portion in most of them; out of a couple more Kar at 694, some Kzl at 61.5, Lyc at 212 and 213, Mcr at 140.5, Ost at 246 and sold the last Linc at 287 as they've run out of momentum.

I dumped Paladin at my entry level and then bought them back for a cent or two more. I'm not sure if it's wise but the stock has been right up to the breakout level and sold off again. Maybe there'll be a Friday squeeze as there are probably plenty of shorts left in this.

I punted a few short in Awc at 234, hoping that the old support level at 235 would provide resistance. It didn't and now I'm just looking to buy back. I actually shorted a couple more at 238 because it looked exhausted. Here's the chart.

Fmg has pretty serious resistance at about 635-640 and I've shorted a few of them at 622 which is roughly where they are now.

I've done something similar in Ozl and Wsa and in each of these cases the amounts are fairly small because the trades are exploratory.

11.45 The index hasn't peeled back and may have a few more points to go on the upside. I bought back the Awc at 237 but the others are ok for now.

1.08 It's not shaping up as a reversal Friday, the index is now up 41 points. I'm not doing much and I'm happy that the book is more balanced.

Paladin made a new high but hasn't kicked on but I think it could take off soon.

1.12 The market has jumped over 20 points in 4 minutes, not sure if it's on any news.

1.16 Not as far as I can tell and the index which shot to a rise of 63 is back at 4750, up 50.

Seek was sitting at 635 and popped up to 639 so I sold a couple.

2.22 Of the stocks that I was trying to short on the back foot, Awc went through resistance so I stopped out and Wsa has done the same although I'm yet to cut that. Fmg and Ozl are very close but so far they've fallen short. It appears to be too early to try to put on shorts so I'm looking to buy these back into any weakness.

On the long side though, I'm continuing to ease out of positions. I've sold the last of the Kar at 702, some more Kzl at 63 and some Ost at 250.

4.02 The index came back in the last 90 minutes and the gains have been trimmed to 34 points.

Fmg slipped back and I bought back some of the short for close to square. I still have some on at an average of 626. The stock got to 636 earlier but looks like closing at around 626. A similar story with Ozl although Wsa has got away from me and I haven't bought anything back yet. It's a small position but I'm obviously caught in a bit of a Friday squeeze so I'll wait till Monday.

All in all though, a good day with the longs doing well.

4.13 A bump up on the close left the Asx 200 higher by 43.

Once more with feeling. Thu Mar 24

The third consecutive day with a solid open has the Asx 200 up 22 points after 30 minutes or so. I'm hoping that the gains can hold and after a couple of days of consolidation plus very good leads in the resources, I think there's a good chance that the market can creep up further later in the day.
Mincor is a nickel stock that my assistant covers...and bought yesterday. But I decided to throw a few more into the pot with a buy at 140. The stock has had some recent production problems and has been hard hit lately but it may have been overdone. The possibility of a higher low is quite strong and 150-155 looks like an easy target.

Kagara zinc is charting in a similar manner to Mcr and I also bought some of them at 57.5.

To complete the shopping list, I jumped back into Ost at 244. It looks as if the rally could have further to run. Stop is at 235 and my target is 255 or so. Only slightly better than 50/50 but it looks like a high probability move.

Looking at my existing positions, I'm out of the last few Ozl short at 154, I've sold a few Bld at 505 and I'm slightly disappointed to see Lynas chopping only slightly higher at 207, 208. I've got out of Djs at 461 for a tiny gain because I've put on risk elsewhere in what I hope will be faster movers.

11.12 The index has kicked again to be up 43 points.
I'm still in a Karoon long which has been held back by a perceived overhang. It's not an issue today though and the stock has accelerated up to 674 and looks pretty strong. It can be quite illiquid and volatile so I'm hoping this is one of those days where it keeps going.
Earlier today, I sold out the last of some extra stock at 662 but I still have most of the initial position where I'm long at 647.

1.50 Back in the office and the early strength has held. The high was 4699, up 47, and the index is up 39 now.

Kar has been up to 695 and I sold a small amount at 690, Kzl is firm at 59 too although Mincor has slipped back to 137.5.

I sold Bld at an average of 506 (v 500). The book is quite focussed now, with longs in Kar, Kzl, Lyc, Mcr and Ost as I'm playing the rebound in smaller resources (and steel stocks) as attention turns to reconstruction in Japan.

The only short I have is by way of some residual puts in Oil Search.

I found myself writing something stupid yesterday when I noted that I was selling out a long in Resolute even though the chart looked quite good. I almost bought straight back into it when I realised but the stock had already pushed higher. Here's the chart; next time I should buy more rather than convince myself that the position is too small and I should just "tidy" it up.

2.25 Just when I was getting the book tight, I've added another long, this time in Paladin.

I'm a contrarian by nature but I think that some governments might be thinking that an awful combination of circumstances happened and a catastrophe was averted, most of the reports were closer to scaremongering than reporting and the newer plants are much safer than Fukishima. Ie, rather than being put off nuclear energy, they might be thinking that the risks are acceptable.

Personally, it's governance rather than the technology which concerns me - will safety standards be allowed to slip over time?

Regardless, Paladin could well have another leg of its recovery to come. Confirmation of a break would be at 381 and I'm long at 376.

2.52 Just noticed that "boring" stock Djs is up at 471.

4.04 The market has chopped sideways since the late morning high. It's the March exchange traded option expiry today which is partly to blame.

Despite my whingeing about Djs and Rsg, it's been a good day and most positions have moved nicely.

Ok, the match is through and a late burst took us to 4699.6, the day's high, up 47.

Kagara Zinc confirmed the buy signal as the day wore on and I'm hoping for some acceleration to come through tomorrow.

Hanging on to the rail. Wed Mar 23

The mood is different this morning despite the US and Europe following our flat lead. The market is up 18 points after 40 minutes.
I've been punting Lynas from the long side but not generally holding much of a position overnight. However, the major US rare earths stock surged 17% last night as investors move to a view that the supply shortfall, which is driving prices, is here for some time.
Lynas has taken off early and I'm long at a tick under 210. I'm chasing the stock because it's shaping up like a 3rd wave with the prospect of a rapid move to new highs. The extended and quite large range correction did overlap the early December highs but not on a closing basis so the pattern is essentially intact. My stop is in the mid 190s.

11.15 The mood change didn't last long and the Asx 200 is now square. Notwithstanding, I'm comfortable with Lynas and apropos the other positions, I'm mostly winding them down. Out of the last few Ost at 241.

12.35 The broader Topix index in Japan is down about two thirds of a percent after a weaker open, while the Kospi and the HSI are down a little also. The Asx 200 has edged back to be up by 3 and it's low volume stuff after the recent action.

Lynas is digesting plenty of stock at around 209 but the intraday chart seems quite bullish. A gap open after two days of consolidation and a reasonable effort to hold most of the gains on a day where there's little conviction. Here's the 30 minute chart.

1.13 I'm out of Resolute at 113.5 for a small profit. They look ok but I'm in the mood to get out of smaller positions and this is one of them.

3.37 Not a lot to add. The index is up 10 in light volume. I've got a buy signal in Djs but I've decided against taking it because I'm not sure that it's likely to move very far. The signal is in the middle of a large trading range and actual trading conditions are sluggish.

Meanwhile, Lynas continues to chop back but it's still clear of the consolidation around 200 as it trades at 206.

4.13 The index closed up 9 at 4652.

I bought some Djs after all; I'm always reluctant to trade what can seem a boring stock but the signal is better than some I've bought lately. Also, at second look, if the slow retracement is complete then a move back to the top of the range is on the cards. Long at 459.

Bld slipped back to 499 and Lyc closed at 206 so they were the two disappointments on the day. I closed out some of my Ozl short at 151 and I'm out of the small Fmg short from yesterday.

Discriminating. Tue Mar 22

There's a school of thought that markets in our time zone are leading for now and I tend to agree. Strong rises overnight but the local market has opened with a more considered rise of 26 points.
As we recover from the sell off, it's time to be more discriminating about the positions I'm in. For a couple of days, pretty much everything on my list was rallying and my job was to pick which would move fastest.
I'm almost out of Awc; sold some at 228 with the rest on the offer at 229. In my retracement scenario, this stock would rebound as high as 235, so this is a fair chunk of that move and the risk/reward is steadily reducing.

Bsl looks as if it has potential for further gains but the bounce is not robust, so out of that one at 198.

I've sold out the last Ifn at 39.5, half of the Incitec Pivot at 430, a few more Lnc at 286 etc etc.

Much like Awc, Fmg seems to be forming a 4th wave and technically it could get into the high 630's but I'm just starting to put on a small short with a sale at 608.

Karoon underperformed yesterday and I read something this morning about a large line of stock overhanging the market. However, the writer suggested that the stock might not be for sale at these levels and it has had a very minor rebound to 659. Sold a little at 662.

2.35 The market gave back the gains and slipped a few points into the red but is now recovering, up 10.
I wish I'd been more agressive with my cutting but I'm still reasonably happy with things.
Boral followed its recent pattern and sold down early but is now back up, reaching 510.

4.12 It was a flat close on a day when the snap back rally lost its snap. I reduced my net long position by half but missed an opportunity to take the lot off.
Shorter term charts look ok in the US and European indices and retracements can catch out traders who short too early so I may get another chance tomorrow.

Making space. Mon Mar 21

Steady early but slipping away now to be off by 15 points at 10.52 am. I don't see the sell off going too far, it's more of an unwind of Friday's exuberance.
Despite that, I'm easing out of some positions. Sold Resolute at 116, some Awc at 224, Bsl at 196, Lnc at 283, the last of the Oil Search stock at 701, to leave the April 675 puts as some downside cover, and half of the Infigen at 36.
I think there's more in the rally but it's quite patchy now. I bought Boral at 500 as it seems to be turning round and has tended to close back towards the highs of the day over the last 5 days, rejecting closes much below 500. It's not going so well so far, the stock has just slipped to 496, but it's early on.

11.52 Oil and gold are up as the bombing of Gadaffi's forces in Libya continues. I bought back into Rsg and bought some Perseus too, in the gold sector. Oil Search is pushing up again but I'm out of that now. Karoon is a little disappointing, down 10 at 661. I've bought a couple more there.

Overall, the market is 11 points down, chopping around in a 25 point range.

1.02 Japan is closed and with Chinese and Korean markets solidly firmer, the Asx 200 has just gone into the black. The situation at Fukishima is moving slowly but does seem to be progressing. There's a good article on FnArena by William Tucker at http://www.terrestrialenergy.com/ . It's written by a nuclear energy advocate but seems accurate and free of hyperbole. Tucker explains what's going on and makes the argument that the dangers at the reactor have been wildly overstated.

3.30 The market has been holding the gains since 1pm. Boral has found its feet and is up to 504.

Mostly I'm just jobbing; buying dips and selling rallies and not really changing the net position. Well, maybe a net seller overall.

There is one new overnight position, a short in Ozl at 155. The last swing low was at 158 and there's some minor resistance at 160 so I'll use 162ish as a stop. I'm hoping it's had enough of a retracement and a higher low around 144 might be a reasonable target.

4.23 It was nice to have a calm day for a change and the market, being in recovery mode, just kept edging up to finish with a gain of 16 points at 4643.

Most of my positions went well and only Karoon was a disappointment as it fell 16 to 655. It's a choppy mover at the best of times and the position is pretty small. I added to it at an average of 655.

Japanese markets re-open tomorrow.

Fast market. Fri Mar 18

Despite no obvious progress in Fukishima the leads are positive this morning because the situation did not, at least, deteriorate. Much of the rally was built in here yesterday and the market is up just 13 points after 40 minutes but it's a tale of the haves and the have nots. Oil ran hard on the confluence of events in Japan and MENA (Middle East, North Africa) and base metals bounced strongly on reconstruction buying.
The relevant stocks are performing well this morning, including Kar, Lnc and Osh - which I'm now long as I overhedged the puts and let the delta run.
I've sold out some Awc, Bsl and Ozl on gap openings too. Otherwise, I've been punting on the long side in Lynas and Paladin, trying to play the bounce and getting in and out fast.

10.53 Nickel had the best bounce in the base metal sector, rising 4.5%. I've gone long Western Areas at 590 on a break of yesterday's high (with a stop below yesterday's low). It looks like the start of a 4th wave retracement rally.

I've also punted something I haven't traded for a while which is outside my watchlist. Cnbc mentioned talk of Agl and Origin looking at debt crippled wind farm operator Infigen, which was part of the Babcock and Brown empire. The chart looks ok, a potential higher low and a break which has risen above the high of the last 2 bars. Long at 33.

With a news generated trade like this, I generally assume that insiders are already in position but the chart doesn't indicate that so maybe the disillusionment with this stock is too great.

11.13 Out of the trading longs in Lyc and Pdn.

Now also long Resolute gold, again a reversal retracement long. Had a few overnight and bought more at 105.5. Most of the gold stocks are bouncing today.

11.29 I don't know whether it was the US drones but the spent fuel rods have finally been checked. They have cooled substantially and the pool has been almost refilled. The Japanese indices are maintaining their gains, up 3%.

This reduces the risk of one of the biggest wildcards.

Also, electricity may be restored to reactors 1 and 2 by later today with 3 and 4 to be back by Sunday.

12.57 The market has worked its way up steadily and is now at 4595 which is a rise of 39 points. The Japanese indices are up about 2% and most of the other local majors are up less than 1%. US futures are firm and finally, I feel like things have calmed down and I can walk away from the screen for more than 30 seconds.

Ipl has pulled away from the turning point. Unlike most of the other charts, this could be a simple a-b-c pullback with the chance of a new high. The retracement held above the October to December trading range so theoretically, new highs could be in order. Mind you, I find that possibility unlikely and I'm simply hoping for a move to 440ish.

1.10 The Japanese recovery has been assisted by co-ordinated support to weaken the Yen. Here's a 30 minute chart of the USDJPY; nice day to be a currency trader.

And Infigen is finally going into trading suspense. Cnbc has been announcing an impending takeover bid all day.

3.13 The market just keeps running, up 66. Here's a 30 minute Xjo chart.

Infigen has pushed up to 35 despite saying that they have nothing firm that needs to be announced to the market although they are in discussions with different parties.

4.05 I'm looking forward to the weekend. I've had a good week but it has been exhausting. My exposure is only slightly reduced going in to Monday so I'm hoping that the nuclear situation continues to resolve and the Northern Hemisphere markets have some bounce left in them.

4.15 The rise was 71 points. It might be sell on open on Monday if we get another good lead.

Arrivederci!

Culture clash. Thu Mar 17

I was watching the press conferences given by the Japanese authorities and they were so vague that it was easy to understand the lack of confidence of the Japanese public. By contrast, the EU energy minister - and I read on FnArena that he's a tax lawyer - is using the most apocalyptic language he possibly can while the US commentators aren't much better. And now that I have the benefit of cable TV again, I can enjoy the news channels ramping it up for all they're worth.
With deterioration of the situation at Fukishima, the overnight leads are negative and the rollercoaster continues. The SPI is lower by 76 points and it's expiry of the March contract at the open which might amplify some of the moves.
It's a very changeable situation though; the latest is that radiation levels have been dropping steadily for the last 12 hours, there's no immediate threat to human health in the vicinity, and power may be restored to the plant soon which could restart the cooling systems.
Most things came back last night, especially with Moody's driven debt concerns in Europe and poor housing stats in the US. There were pockets of strength in coal and natural gas which is actually quite good for Australia. Our oil and gas sector is increasingly gas focussed.

9.50 Watching CNN, their take is that a US nuclear team is now assisting the Japanese and that the situation is worse than they expected. For example, the US have warned their citizens in the area to move 50 miles away, rather than the 20 or 30 that the Japanese authorities were suggesting.
The overnight sessions seem more spooked, at least it's daylight when we're watching and there's more chance of progress.

10.59 An hour in and the market has recovered from marginal new lows to be down 39. The low was down about 82 at 4477. The Japanese futures contracts is down about 5% so something is built in.
I sold anything that wasn't hit too hard on the match and have generally bought the stocks back at better levels. Have also bought and sold a few Ipl and Lnc which I expected to both perform well after the early sell off. They're going ok now, Ipl is square and Lnc is down 2.

11.37 It's very tricky. Are we going to have a huge reversal day or has the bounced stalled at 65 points from trough to peak?
The news flow from Japan is better, at least.
I've bought Karoon, more an explorer than a producer, but sitting on huge gas reservoirs. It had a long consolidation between 700 and 800, following which it might have had 5 waves down. It's obviously chopping wildly now, along with everything else. I'm long at 646 with a stop around 600. I'm looking for a reversal trade, as all the buys are at the moment.
I've got the stop there but the nature of the market is I'm unlikely to hold much of it overnight if the market tips over.

12.07 Japanese markets have cut the losses in half, down 2%. The Asx 200 is just down 7. I've bought a few Lynas at 184, simply as a high beta stock in case the rally continues.

12.50 The market here is stalled at down 7. It looks quite bullish intraday but it all depends on Fukishima. Helicopters are dropping water and Cnbc are saying that electricity has been connected to the water pumps.

1.21 The market has lost steam, I'm out of the Lyc for a few dollars my way and have sold small amounts of other intraday longs.

2.44 The market is back to square.

2.47 It was short lived but the market is hanging in there, down 3. The number 3 reactor is playing up again so although the pumps are close to getting cooling happening, the situation is fluid.

2.52 I feel like I've dodged a bullet today and I guess I'll be ducking and weaving tomorrow because there are a bunch of potential higher lows forming in the stocks I'm already long.

Here's Bsl.

Awc is similar.

I've been trying to play the bounce for the last couple of days and it's still shaping up to make an a-b-c rally.

4.14 The index had a second attempt to get in the black but couldn't quite make it, down 3. A strong performance given the circumstances and I've held on to most of my positions.

The progress in Fukishima has stalled, they're still using helicopters and fire trucks to spray water and the power restoration has either happened or is about to but I don't think the cooling pumps are back in action. There are plenty of chicken littles willing to say that the sky is falling in but I notice that the more somebody knows about nuclear power and the situation at the plant, the less willing they are to make sweeping statements. The best impression I get is that it's serious and barely under control but the health threat to the general public is minimal for now. What nobody seems to be able to tell us is how bad it could get, ie how much fuel is there to burn?

Nevertheless, as the Europeans look ahead to their trading day, it's probably better than they feared.

Waiting and hoping. Wed Mar 16

It's the morning after the day before and it was wild yesterday. I got a sniff that the market might drop 30 or 40 points around lunchtime, when it was already down 25. Instead it fell 100 in about 15 minutes.
It's still difficult to get a clear idea of what's happening in Japan; another fire might have broken out. I'd know more if my cable supplier Foxtel hadn't had a supply outage, so no financial news channels today.
I'm working with ABC's new 24 hour CNN equivalent.
The SPI firmed up about 13 points overnight on large but contained falls in the Northern Hemisphere although, at 9.54 am, it's down 30. Presumably that's based on further bad news in Japan. Actually, it's plunging - down 60 now - 1 minute later.

9.58 Back to down 19. SPI expiry this morning too.
Steel, copper, potash firm overnight.

10.30 What was I thinking? SPI expiry is tomorrow, I was fooled by the large blocks at odd prices which were lined up ahead of the open. Market is up 13.
Good bounces in Ipl, Ost and Ozl. I punted a few golds that were sold on the match on the basis of an overnight gold price fall. However, US gold stocks were bought and that lead has been followed here.

10.47 If the bounce is on, up 26 points now, then it could gather strength, especially if the Japanese index rebounds. I'm holding longs in Bsl, Ipl, Ost and Ozl.
Two new longs. Awc as focus turns to the rebuilding. Long at 221.

Lnc, where the chart is less complete looking, but the story is compelling in a world where nuclear has slipped down the pecking order but there is a desire for a limit on carbon emissions. Long at 254.

Bought back the last of a short in Lynas at 168 on the open. I was expecting to reshort it a bit later but the stock has surged to 188. Similarly, hard hit Paladin has had the biggest bounce, up 13% to 369.

11.15 The Topix is up over 5% although the rally here has paused and the Asx 200 is up 32 points. The trap when you've bought too early, as I did, is to cut quickly in relief. And I am buying and selling, prepared to chop if things turn sour, but I'm trying to give the market the opportunity to have a decent recovery rally.

12.43 The market reached a high at 4582, up 54 and is now higher by 31 points as early gains in Japan have slipped. Mind you, the Topix is still up over 5%.

I'm not doing too much now that it's settled down but had a bit of success earlier with some jobbing.

1.25 The market is slipping back but still in the black. The rally this morning overlapped a previous swing low. I'm anticipating a higher low with this pullback and another run up. If that happens, the test will be whether there's any strength in that or if it just forms a kind of pennant before another kick lower. Here's the Xjo 30 minute.

2.42 Big bounce from almost back to square to up 28 in about 10 minutes as Japanese markets re-open after lunch to hold and slightly extend gains. At least, I think so. I can see the Topix but only a delayed feed of the Nikkei or HSI. Thanks Foxtel.

3.06 Just thought to look at the Australian uranium investing website and there's a good summary of the situation at Fukushima.

On another note, it's very sad for the nuclear power industry; inspired by the uranium investing website to look at a technology I'd always assumed was too dangerous, I read a little about the latest power plants. They're far safer, for example, they'd typically have 7 layers of passive containment. Most of the fuel is now recycled so the waste is vastly reduced. All in all, the dangers and risk are much more acceptable but it's going to be pretty difficult to regain public confidence. 

4.15 Up 30 at 4558 despite a reduction in the Japanese gain to 4.4% (Topix).

Linc did well, closing up 19 at 263.

I think there'll be a second swing up.

Tentative. Tue Mar 15

The overnight leads were ok, European bourses were down a percent or more but the US recovered to lose just half a percent. The initial reaction in Australia has been a 0.5% drop in the Asx 200 after 45 minutes so the first hurdle has not been passed. That would be the 4630 low from Friday. However, the action is not powerful to the downside and the market may have made a higher low.
I'm running with that scenario and I've added to my small longs on the back foot.
One new trade is a long in Ozl at 146.5. It's a reversal trade in what looks like an incomplete downtrend so it's not vintage. However, the stock has rallied off the days lows in the previous 2 days and has pushed through yesterday's high. A reasonable signal and my stop is in the low 140s. I'm hoping for a quick 7 or 8 cent bounce.

This trade sums up my book at the moment. I've moved my already short time horizon in tighter and I'll sell on targets or on failure to go anywhere.

11.10 Bhp, Cba and Rio are 3 of the biggest stocks in the market. They've all pushed above the previous day's high for the first time in a week or so. Short term bullish, despite continued falls in Japan where the Topix is 4% lower.
Bhp

Cba

Rio

I've followed this lead and bought a few Fortescue around 577 average.

11.48 The Japanese indices are falling further, down 6% or more with news of possible radiation leak. The Aussie market has pushed back to down 0.5%. I sold a few Fmg back out for a few cents and took off a couple of Ozl at 148.5.

12.09 It's not clear what's happening, whether there is or isn't a radiation leak. As China's markets open, I expect us to rally as pragmatism takes over. The Kospi is open and up and the Australian market is showing strong signs that it's due a retracement rally.

12.27 So far, my guess is wrong vis a vis China. The HSI is down 1% early and the Australian market is down 26.

I'm jobbing around fairly agressively. I've gone a bit too hard in Ipl. I had a few left over yesterday at 418 and bought some more at 415. The stock has slipped below short term support and I may need to stop out. I'll wait to see whether it can maintain the low.

1.01 It's clearly not happening as I'd hoped and the Xjo is down 37 points. I'm now thinking that we can (a) go to new lows today around 4560 which would be another 30 points or (b) find a base and then chop around for the afternoon and perhaps the next day or so before slipping lower again.

Here's the 30 minute chart.

Out of some minor longs in Tol at 561 and Wsa at 612.

1.14 A quick capitulation and new lows are in.

1.34 It's very volatile with the Japanese closed for lunch but futures implying a further 2% drop is likely to 8% or more lower. The HSI is more than 3% down and US overnight futures are looking at a drop of close to 2%.

I sold out the last Awc at 222.

1.55 It's been panic selling for an hour and the index has been below 4500. At 4507 now, down 119.

The fall has been on the back of more bad news regarding the nuclear situation in Japan. It's very unclear but the experts wheeled into Cnbc are looking and sounding very worried.

2.27 A sharp rebound, back to 4543. The latest info is that it's not a 3 mile island situation because at the time the power plant was operating up to the time of the accident. In this case, the reactor has been shut down for 2 days and is at 10% of usual heat. As the engineers are able to continue the sea water cooling the situation improves. Not as catastrophic as feared an hour ago.

2.46 That was short lived. The Japanese markets reopened and moved to a loss of 12%. HSI is down 4%.
I got out of some longs on the bounce and despite having a smallish book, I've still lost a bit today.
I'm holding what I've got left. Momentum is terrible but risk/reward looks ok in that stocks had the first leg up (which I bought, sadly) and then have reversed quickly to a new low.

3.25 Still oscillating wildly. Xjo was recently at 4480 and now at 4515, down 112.

3.38 I'm starting to wonder whether we'll get a buying panic into the close. I was expecting some selling but with a short time to go the index is finding support. Suits me.

4.16 At the finish, the index was down 98 at 4529. It was panic selling in Japan today with the action spilling over into every market in this time zone.
It was pretty bad news regarding the radiation leak but the market responded to that and the latest news seems to be that the health risk is not life threatening except to the courageous 50 workers who are working at the plant.
It was a tough afternoon; I jobbed in and out of a few things and managed to limit the losses but didn't have much luck in Ipl where I simply sold out some of the extra stock at 405. Similarly, in Ozl I reduced the average to 145 and didn't increase the long amount but the stock closed at 141.
That was the story for the intraday trades, most of the existing ones are still there and cost me more. I did get something back in the shorts in Aax and Lyc.
I've gone from having a small long book to a small/medium one but it's not so much that I'm trying to catch a falling knife as finding it hard to dump.
I can tell myself that the market is massively oversold but it's usually better to chase it once the turning point is in place. Oh well, it's not so much that I'm terribly worried, it's more that I've been in this situation many times in my trading career and although I've managed it better than before, I've still been too quick to buy.