Monday, March 28, 2011

Prior convictions. Mon Mar 28

The rebound continued apace overnight and it has had no impact on the Aussie market so far. In fact, the Asx 200 is lower by 7 points after an hour. Base metals, oil and gold were little changed and the AUD was firmer.
With the onset of a new trading week, any convictions I had about my positions have evaporated and my instinct is to get out of everything and wait for inspiration to strike.
So, out of Aax at 345 (v 340), Kzl at 64.5 (v 57.5)  Pdn at 374 (v 381) as they suffer from continued problems in Fukishima, and some of the Mcr at 144. I bought back the short in Ozl at 154.5 (v 157.5) as they were sold down at the open but have actually added slightly to the small shorts in Fmg, Osh and Wsa with mixed results so far.
Lynas is quite well bid in a slipping market and Sek is holding its own too.

I can see myself potentially buying back into Aax and Pdn as Aax has just announced another contract win and is holding the small gains while Pdn, along with the other main uranium stocks Era and Ext, is recovering from an early 3% dip.
The race looks run in Mincor, they slipped to 138 on light volume, and I might get the last few long stock away on a retracement.














There's decent momentum in the Asx 200's rebound and this Thursday marks the last day of the quarter. It still looks too early to put on shorts but the easy gains are gone on the long side. The short positions I do have are just small trading positions and their purpose is partly psychological, to keep me balanced between bullishness and bearishness.
2.25 The market isn't doing much and neither am I. Lynas is up to 217 and Sek is unchanged at 639.
I've jobbed some Fmg, Osh and Wsa for a few dollars my way and I'm holding onto a couple of small short balances in Fmg (ok) and Wsa (underwater).
I also got out of the last of my Ost position, near the open, at 250 (v 244).
Regarding Aax and Pdn. I got back into Aax at 347 but only for a small position and I've left Paladin alone because it hasn't managed to recover and I expect it may weaken further, potentially providing a better entry.

4.13 The index ground lower for most of the afternoon before recovering to a 9 point loss on the day.
A flat day for me with some minor jobbing paying for a hit in Pdn.
Bought a handful of All on the close at 325. I'm sceptical about the story and the valuation of this stock but the market isn't. It's the first close above the previous day's high for 13 bars which might imply a very weak stock but the fall has been minor especially in the context of the broader market's performance.


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