Tentative. Tue Mar 15

The overnight leads were ok, European bourses were down a percent or more but the US recovered to lose just half a percent. The initial reaction in Australia has been a 0.5% drop in the Asx 200 after 45 minutes so the first hurdle has not been passed. That would be the 4630 low from Friday. However, the action is not powerful to the downside and the market may have made a higher low.
I'm running with that scenario and I've added to my small longs on the back foot.
One new trade is a long in Ozl at 146.5. It's a reversal trade in what looks like an incomplete downtrend so it's not vintage. However, the stock has rallied off the days lows in the previous 2 days and has pushed through yesterday's high. A reasonable signal and my stop is in the low 140s. I'm hoping for a quick 7 or 8 cent bounce.

This trade sums up my book at the moment. I've moved my already short time horizon in tighter and I'll sell on targets or on failure to go anywhere.

11.10 Bhp, Cba and Rio are 3 of the biggest stocks in the market. They've all pushed above the previous day's high for the first time in a week or so. Short term bullish, despite continued falls in Japan where the Topix is 4% lower.
Bhp

Cba

Rio

I've followed this lead and bought a few Fortescue around 577 average.

11.48 The Japanese indices are falling further, down 6% or more with news of possible radiation leak. The Aussie market has pushed back to down 0.5%. I sold a few Fmg back out for a few cents and took off a couple of Ozl at 148.5.

12.09 It's not clear what's happening, whether there is or isn't a radiation leak. As China's markets open, I expect us to rally as pragmatism takes over. The Kospi is open and up and the Australian market is showing strong signs that it's due a retracement rally.

12.27 So far, my guess is wrong vis a vis China. The HSI is down 1% early and the Australian market is down 26.

I'm jobbing around fairly agressively. I've gone a bit too hard in Ipl. I had a few left over yesterday at 418 and bought some more at 415. The stock has slipped below short term support and I may need to stop out. I'll wait to see whether it can maintain the low.

1.01 It's clearly not happening as I'd hoped and the Xjo is down 37 points. I'm now thinking that we can (a) go to new lows today around 4560 which would be another 30 points or (b) find a base and then chop around for the afternoon and perhaps the next day or so before slipping lower again.

Here's the 30 minute chart.

Out of some minor longs in Tol at 561 and Wsa at 612.

1.14 A quick capitulation and new lows are in.

1.34 It's very volatile with the Japanese closed for lunch but futures implying a further 2% drop is likely to 8% or more lower. The HSI is more than 3% down and US overnight futures are looking at a drop of close to 2%.

I sold out the last Awc at 222.

1.55 It's been panic selling for an hour and the index has been below 4500. At 4507 now, down 119.

The fall has been on the back of more bad news regarding the nuclear situation in Japan. It's very unclear but the experts wheeled into Cnbc are looking and sounding very worried.

2.27 A sharp rebound, back to 4543. The latest info is that it's not a 3 mile island situation because at the time the power plant was operating up to the time of the accident. In this case, the reactor has been shut down for 2 days and is at 10% of usual heat. As the engineers are able to continue the sea water cooling the situation improves. Not as catastrophic as feared an hour ago.

2.46 That was short lived. The Japanese markets reopened and moved to a loss of 12%. HSI is down 4%.
I got out of some longs on the bounce and despite having a smallish book, I've still lost a bit today.
I'm holding what I've got left. Momentum is terrible but risk/reward looks ok in that stocks had the first leg up (which I bought, sadly) and then have reversed quickly to a new low.

3.25 Still oscillating wildly. Xjo was recently at 4480 and now at 4515, down 112.

3.38 I'm starting to wonder whether we'll get a buying panic into the close. I was expecting some selling but with a short time to go the index is finding support. Suits me.

4.16 At the finish, the index was down 98 at 4529. It was panic selling in Japan today with the action spilling over into every market in this time zone.
It was pretty bad news regarding the radiation leak but the market responded to that and the latest news seems to be that the health risk is not life threatening except to the courageous 50 workers who are working at the plant.
It was a tough afternoon; I jobbed in and out of a few things and managed to limit the losses but didn't have much luck in Ipl where I simply sold out some of the extra stock at 405. Similarly, in Ozl I reduced the average to 145 and didn't increase the long amount but the stock closed at 141.
That was the story for the intraday trades, most of the existing ones are still there and cost me more. I did get something back in the shorts in Aax and Lyc.
I've gone from having a small long book to a small/medium one but it's not so much that I'm trying to catch a falling knife as finding it hard to dump.
I can tell myself that the market is massively oversold but it's usually better to chase it once the turning point is in place. Oh well, it's not so much that I'm terribly worried, it's more that I've been in this situation many times in my trading career and although I've managed it better than before, I've still been too quick to buy.