Thursday, March 24, 2011

Once more with feeling. Thu Mar 24

The third consecutive day with a solid open has the Asx 200 up 22 points after 30 minutes or so. I'm hoping that the gains can hold and after a couple of days of consolidation plus very good leads in the resources, I think there's a good chance that the market can creep up further later in the day.
Mincor is a nickel stock that my assistant covers...and bought yesterday. But I decided to throw a few more into the pot with a buy at 140. The stock has had some recent production problems and has been hard hit lately but it may have been overdone. The possibility of a higher low is quite strong and 150-155 looks like an easy target.
Kagara zinc is charting in a similar manner to Mcr and I also bought some of them at 57.5.

To complete the shopping list, I jumped back into Ost at 244. It looks as if the rally could have further to run. Stop is at 235 and my target is 255 or so. Only slightly better than 50/50 but it looks like a high probability move.














Looking at my existing positions, I'm out of the last few Ozl short at 154, I've sold a few Bld at 505 and I'm slightly disappointed to see Lynas chopping only slightly higher at 207, 208. I've got out of Djs at 461 for a tiny gain because I've put on risk elsewhere in what I hope will be faster movers.

11.12 The index has kicked again to be up 43 points.
I'm still in a Karoon long which has been held back by a perceived overhang. It's not an issue today though and the stock has accelerated up to 674 and looks pretty strong. It can be quite illiquid and volatile so I'm hoping this is one of those days where it keeps going.
Earlier today, I sold out the last of some extra stock at 662 but I still have most of the initial position where I'm long at 647.


1.50 Back in the office and the early strength has held. The high was 4699, up 47, and the index is up 39 now.
Kar has been up to 695 and I sold a small amount at 690, Kzl is firm at 59 too although Mincor has slipped back to 137.5.
I sold Bld at an average of 506 (v 500). The book is quite focussed now, with longs in Kar, Kzl, Lyc, Mcr and Ost as I'm playing the rebound in smaller resources (and steel stocks) as attention turns to reconstruction in Japan.
The only short I have is by way of some residual puts in Oil Search.

I found myself writing something stupid yesterday when I noted that I was selling out a long in Resolute even though the chart looked quite good. I almost bought straight back into it when I realised but the stock had already pushed higher. Here's the chart; next time I should buy more rather than convince myself that the position is too small and I should just "tidy" it up.

2.25 Just when I was getting the book tight, I've added another long, this time in Paladin.
I'm a contrarian by nature but I think that some governments might be thinking that an awful combination of circumstances happened and a catastrophe was averted, most of the reports were closer to scaremongering than reporting and the newer plants are much safer than Fukishima. Ie, rather than being put off nuclear energy, they might be thinking that the risks are acceptable.
Personally, it's governance rather than the technology which concerns me - will safety standards be allowed to slip over time?
Regardless, Paladin could well have another leg of its recovery to come. Confirmation of a break would be at 381 and I'm long at 376.

2.52 Just noticed that "boring" stock Djs is up at 471.

4.04 The market has chopped sideways since the late morning high. It's the March exchange traded option expiry today which is partly to blame.
Despite my whingeing about Djs and Rsg, it's been a good day and most positions have moved nicely.

Ok, the match is through and a late burst took us to 4699.6, the day's high, up 47.
Kagara Zinc confirmed the buy signal as the day wore on and I'm hoping for some acceleration to come through tomorrow.



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