Friday, March 25, 2011

Flaky. Fri Mar 25

My trading has felt flaky lately because I've been leaping in and out of positions but it's working so I'll stick with it. This morning is another day when I'm rotating positions fast. There is a logic to it; the index has leapt back from the brink but it's also fast approaching the breakdown level.
On an individual stock basis, some are powering through the breakdown level - if the stock movement was one of the many that tracked the index - and some look as it they will stall. I'm nibbling at a couple of shorts but I'm also concerned that the stocks could charge ever onwards so it's cautious stuff. I'm also easing out of a couple of longs on the back foot as, being a Friday, and having had a strong open after a strong week the market could peel back today.

First though, a couple of straightforward new longs.
Aax made a buy signal on the open after a shallow four day congestion. I got a few stock at 340 before it pushed on.
Online employment agency Seek has been punished lately after an unexpected loss in a relatively small part of the business. I bought a few yesterday at 631 and finished off this morning at 635. A buy signal would be confirmed with sales at 647. I like the shape of the chart; the last leg down from 734 to 606 has a 5 wave pattern. Stop would be at about 610.
My overnight longs have performed well and I've sold a portion in most of them; out of a couple more Kar at 694, some Kzl at 61.5, Lyc at 212 and 213, Mcr at 140.5, Ost at 246 and sold the last Linc at 287 as they've run out of momentum.
I dumped Paladin at my entry level and then bought them back for a cent or two more. I'm not sure if it's wise but the stock has been right up to the breakout level and sold off again. Maybe there'll be a Friday squeeze as there are probably plenty of shorts left in this.
I punted a few short in Awc at 234, hoping that the old support level at 235 would provide resistance. It didn't and now I'm just looking to buy back. I actually shorted a couple more at 238 because it looked exhausted. Here's the chart.
Fmg has pretty serious resistance at about 635-640 and I've shorted a few of them at 622 which is roughly where they are now.
I've done something similar in Ozl and Wsa and in each of these cases the amounts are fairly small because the trades are exploratory.

11.45 The index hasn't peeled back and may have a few more points to go on the upside. I bought back the Awc at 237 but the others are ok for now.

1.08 It's not shaping up as a reversal Friday, the index is now up 41 points. I'm not doing much and I'm happy that the book is more balanced.
Paladin made a new high but hasn't kicked on but I think it could take off soon.

1.12 The market has jumped over 20 points in 4 minutes, not sure if it's on any news.

1.16 Not as far as I can tell and the index which shot to a rise of 63 is back at 4750, up 50.
Seek was sitting at 635 and popped up to 639 so I sold a couple.

2.22 Of the stocks that I was trying to short on the back foot, Awc went through resistance so I stopped out and Wsa has done the same although I'm yet to cut that. Fmg and Ozl are very close but so far they've fallen short. It appears to be too early to try to put on shorts so I'm looking to buy these back into any weakness.
On the long side though, I'm continuing to ease out of positions. I've sold the last of the Kar at 702, some more Kzl at 63 and some Ost at 250.

4.02 The index came back in the last 90 minutes and the gains have been trimmed to 34 points.
Fmg slipped back and I bought back some of the short for close to square. I still have some on at an average of 626. The stock got to 636 earlier but looks like closing at around 626. A similar story with Ozl although Wsa has got away from me and I haven't bought anything back yet. It's a small position but I'm obviously caught in a bit of a Friday squeeze so I'll wait till Monday.
All in all though, a good day with the longs doing well.

4.13 A bump up on the close left the Asx 200 higher by 43.

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