It's still difficult to get a clear idea of what's happening in Japan; another fire might have broken out. I'd know more if my cable supplier Foxtel hadn't had a supply outage, so no financial news channels today.
I'm working with ABC's new 24 hour CNN equivalent.
The SPI firmed up about 13 points overnight on large but contained falls in the Northern Hemisphere although, at 9.54 am, it's down 30. Presumably that's based on further bad news in Japan. Actually, it's plunging - down 60 now - 1 minute later.
9.58 Back to down 19. SPI expiry this morning too.
Steel, copper, potash firm overnight.
10.30 What was I thinking? SPI expiry is tomorrow, I was fooled by the large blocks at odd prices which were lined up ahead of the open. Market is up 13.
Good bounces in Ipl, Ost and Ozl. I punted a few golds that were sold on the match on the basis of an overnight gold price fall. However, US gold stocks were bought and that lead has been followed here.
10.47 If the bounce is on, up 26 points now, then it could gather strength, especially if the Japanese index rebounds. I'm holding longs in Bsl, Ipl, Ost and Ozl.
Two new longs. Awc as focus turns to the rebuilding. Long at 221.
Lnc, where the chart is less complete looking, but the story is compelling in a world where nuclear has slipped down the pecking order but there is a desire for a limit on carbon emissions. Long at 254.
Bought back the last of a short in Lynas at 168 on the open. I was expecting to reshort it a bit later but the stock has surged to 188. Similarly, hard hit Paladin has had the biggest bounce, up 13% to 369.
11.15 The Topix is up over 5% although the rally here has paused and the Asx 200 is up 32 points. The trap when you've bought too early, as I did, is to cut quickly in relief. And I am buying and selling, prepared to chop if things turn sour, but I'm trying to give the market the opportunity to have a decent recovery rally.
12.43 The market reached a high at 4582, up 54 and is now higher by 31 points as early gains in Japan have slipped. Mind you, the Topix is still up over 5%.
I'm not doing too much now that it's settled down but had a bit of success earlier with some jobbing.
1.25 The market is slipping back but still in the black. The rally this morning overlapped a previous swing low. I'm anticipating a higher low with this pullback and another run up. If that happens, the test will be whether there's any strength in that or if it just forms a kind of pennant before another kick lower. Here's the Xjo 30 minute.
2.42 Big bounce from almost back to square to up 28 in about 10 minutes as Japanese markets re-open after lunch to hold and slightly extend gains. At least, I think so. I can see the Topix but only a delayed feed of the Nikkei or HSI. Thanks Foxtel.
3.06 Just thought to look at the Australian uranium investing website and there's a good summary of the situation at Fukushima.
On another note, it's very sad for the nuclear power industry; inspired by the uranium investing website to look at a technology I'd always assumed was too dangerous, I read a little about the latest power plants. They're far safer, for example, they'd typically have 7 layers of passive containment. Most of the fuel is now recycled so the waste is vastly reduced. All in all, the dangers and risk are much more acceptable but it's going to be pretty difficult to regain public confidence.
4.15 Up 30 at 4558 despite a reduction in the Japanese gain to 4.4% (Topix).
Linc did well, closing up 19 at 263.
I think there'll be a second swing up.
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