Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Discriminating. Tue Mar 22

There's a school of thought that markets in our time zone are leading for now and I tend to agree. Strong rises overnight but the local market has opened with a more considered rise of 26 points.
As we recover from the sell off, it's time to be more discriminating about the positions I'm in. For a couple of days, pretty much everything on my list was rallying and my job was to pick which would move fastest.
I'm almost out of Awc; sold some at 228 with the rest on the offer at 229. In my retracement scenario, this stock would rebound as high as 235, so this is a fair chunk of that move and the risk/reward is steadily reducing.













Bsl looks as if it has potential for further gains but the bounce is not robust, so out of that one at 198.













I've sold out the last Ifn at 39.5, half of the Incitec Pivot at 430, a few more Lnc at 286 etc etc.

Much like Awc, Fmg seems to be forming a 4th wave and technically it could get into the high 630's but I'm just starting to put on a small short with a sale at 608.













Karoon underperformed yesterday and I read something this morning about a large line of stock overhanging the market. However, the writer suggested that the stock might not be for sale at these levels and it has had a very minor rebound to 659. Sold a little at 662.

2.35 The market gave back the gains and slipped a few points into the red but is now recovering, up 10.
I wish I'd been more agressive with my cutting but I'm still reasonably happy with things.
Boral followed its recent pattern and sold down early but is now back up, reaching 510.

4.12 It was a flat close on a day when the snap back rally lost its snap. I reduced my net long position by half but missed an opportunity to take the lot off.
Shorter term charts look ok in the US and European indices and retracements can catch out traders who short too early so I may get another chance tomorrow.

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