Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Wrong but unscathed. Wed Mar 30

I didn't get the lower high I was hoping for after a strong night in the US and a solid one in Europe that has led to gains this morning. The momentum is still strong and the index is up 37 points after 70 minutes.
I have very few positions and they're small size so although I'm net short, the damage is minimal.
Lynas is in a trading halt with the company due to announce details of a capital raising and a strategic agreement, presumably with Japanese company Sojitz.
I'm just waiting on developments before putting on any new trades. The index has just reached a level which could provide resistance. Over the last few days, I kept telling myself (and not quite listening) that it was too early to start shorting things but the Asx 200 is reaching a point where the equation looks better.
12.06 The index is holding on to the gains and is 41 points higher at 4797.
I changed my mind on All and sold out at 322, a couple of cents below my entry level. I was looking for it to take off and it hasn't.
2.08 Both the steel stocks that I follow are looking promising again as if their choppy rallies could get another lease of life. Here's Bsl....
...and One Steel, on a daily basis.
3.14 I'm obviously not the only one who's too clever by half because the index shot up to 4839 - a rise of 83 - before easing back to where it is now, 4822.
Fortescue is a conundrum. It's nudging into the level from which it broke down. I don't really want to cut it though so I've bought some May 650 puts at 32 and I'll buy back the stock. The option premium is discounted for the Easter public holidays and Anzac day which makes them reasonable in my terms. If the rally fails to break through resistance then the stock can drop back to 600 quite quickly.

 4.13 The Asx 200 closed up 66 at 4822.
My book is tiny now. Seek had a good day, rallying 16 to 669; I sold a couple along the way at 664.
Lyc is in a trading halt pending the capital raising and Fmg eased back to close at 639 where I bought back half of my short stock. I also have a very small short position in Ozl which did very little.
I'll keep watching Bsl and Ost. They slipped back from their highs and I'm in two minds about them.

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