Jitterbug. Tue Nov 30

The month is ending and is behaving in character with yet another attack of the jitters. Europe was hard hit on bail out ructions while the US rallied through the day to close just lower. The Aussie market opened slighly weaker which would have been most people's guess after surprise strength yesterday. It has chopped around for a bit and now taken a sharp plunge to fall to a recent low of down 32 points.
The chart pattern is a variation on yesterday's early situation where I was wondering whether it was a choppy rally up to resistance and then a failure. The point of difference is that yesterday's rally went above the Friday high but I guess, yes, it's still quite possible that the rally has failed and we could go lower. Actually, I think it's too hard to call.

I've started buying back into Arafura as I think there could be more juice left in the rally. My average entry price is 119 so far with the stock back at 117. I'd be concerned if it closed back through the swing high at 114 so stop is around 112.

2.32 Back from a trip to the physio to find the market little changed but Aristocrat, unfortunately, has cost me. This was always a little countertrend trade and I sold half out at 266 before I left the office but didn't expect it to sell off rapidly. Oh well, out of the rest at 256.

3.06 We're still down 0.5% but doing ok relatively because HK is down over 1% along with Japanese indices while mainland Chinese indices are down 3 and 4%. Not sure why.... tightening concerns?

In Australia, the chances of further rate rises have reduced so perhaps that's helping. Awe, Djs, Lnc and Ost are all up while Aru is down near its lows. I've now got an average entry of 118 with the stock trading at 114.5.

3.54 Linc is the standout, up 10 at 260 and I've sold a few at 259. It's a new high and looking good but with the market in its current phase, selling a few on a new high is probably wise.

After falling for so long, there are obviously some bearish patterns around, I've just been trying to find buy signals. Anyway, I think Ipl has probably made a lower high about 3 days back at 389. I can use 390-392 as a stop so I'm looking to short this on a rally back to around 380.

4.13 That's November over and it has left a cliffhanger with the index teetering on the edge of the precipice and European and Asian markets under intense pressure. The tough part for the Aussie market is that we've already had a 50% retracement while most other markets have fallen 20-30%. If they continue on to a relatively modest 35-40% pullback it will give us significant headwinds to battle against.

Obviously, the context is all. If I'd been on top of the market rhythm then I'd be short and loving it and more than happy to see another 10% drop.

Just to show that it's a diverse market, I've had a reasonable month. Below budget but adequate given the circumstances.

There was extra volume going through on the close and one or two things jumped about. Arafura rallied from 118 to 122.5 and I sold some out.

Bailing out. Mon Nov 29

The market was steady at the open as last Friday's fragmented lead from the shortened Thanksgiving session seemed like a long time ago. But gradually the early sangfroid has ebbed away.
I stopped out of Karoon, covering costs, as they're not really going anywhere. The bigger problem has been Avoca. I started getting cold feet and dumped at 319 and 315 as it has clearly evolved into a minor correction - and not a buy signal - before another leg down.

11.46 The index is down 32 points as figures point to a slowing retail sector. Much as it did last week, the market faltered at the next resistance level and has then accelerated back down.

Earlier, I sold the last of the Lynas at 162.5 as they were firmer earlier. They are one of the few firm stocks in my watchlist at the moment so I'll be watching them closely for another buying opportunity.

11.52 Had another go at Aristocrat. Buying as it broke above the high of the previous bar on the 60 minute chart after it had rejected a new low. Most analysts have wearily confirmed a buy despite yet another disappointment as this year's PE is 26 and a big profit turnaround should come sooner or (probably) later. Long at 269.

1 pm The cricket is tragic if you're an Australian fan and England now have an outside chance of victory. The index seemed to gather the mood of impending doom as the English team batted cheerfully all morning and the Xjo was down 40 points a lttle while ago, completely out of kilter with the rest of the region which is in a range from mildly weaker to mildly firmer.

With US futures also mildly firmer things have turned around and the deficit has been halved. Avo has recovered to 319 but I'm still happy to be out as events aren't panning out as I expected.

1.36 The loss is just 11 points now.

A new trade this morning was Djs where I've bought at 448. My stop is around 440 with the stock having retraced most of an earlier bounce. It's a risk/reward type trade where I can see the possibility of a quick push back to 465-475 while the downside is fairly limited.

2.52 That's a very strong reversal, 52 points from the low till now when the index is up 11. It's led by the banks. There was a higher low on the Xjo chart as well so that's hopeful. According to the Dow jones Newswires chartist, a firm close today could form a bullish hammer pattern.

4.12 I've marked in a line on the updated Xjo 60 minute chart to show roughly where I think resistance is. The index closed right on it (after I'd guesstimated a level an hour ago) but it did overlap for a little while. It's a fairly hopeful sign that we could be due a short squeeze tomorrow.

In general, my positions didn't do much. The best was One Steel which bounced off the 247 low from last week and finished at 252.

Aristocrat plunges. Fri Nov 26

A quiet night due to Thanksgiving but the larger European indices were stronger with the FTSE up close to 1%.
Aristocrat has had a profit warning and has slumped as low as 265 and is still down 56 at 277. Lost opportunity in hindsight with the chart having looked suspicious for some time despite looking very cheap on forward PEs. Obviously there was a lot of scepticism about it.

I've actually been punting around on the 5 minute chart. I've only been playing it from the long side but I did some quick maths and worked out that even on a nasty downgrade, the stock is on a PE of 30 for this year. Presumably there may be a recovery at some point! Anyway, I just wanted to make sure that I wasn't trying to catch a falling anvil because even a small punt can prove very costly if you fail to grasp the severity of a problem.
I'm also watching cricket, trading quite busily and trying to follow the online chat about the cricket all at the same time. It's actually a bit too intense but the action is calming down now.

I tipped out my Aru at 133, around my target level and looking like a 5 wave completion on a 60 minute chart, although in the context of a pretty good looking daily chart.

11.23 Have also sold out more of my Lynas - not much left now - as it got a tad below yesterday's close and drifted off with the market after early gains. Average was about 166.5.

Linc confirmed my original idea -I think - so I rushed back in at 247.

Karoon is stronger again, I'm hoping it will take off.

Have actually added to my Avoca position at 326 as it has made a tight little buy signal.

11.43 Oh, and earlier I got out of Murchison at 126. My opinion on this one has been that it was a tradeable retracement before another test of the lows. It wasn't going anywhere and time is of the essence with these ones. It was a fraction above breakeven as a trade.

11.59 I've added some text to make my reading of the Aru chart somewhat clearer. Ie. I see it as a 3rd wave completion where the 3rd wave subdivided into 5 (which was what I was referring to with the comment about a 5 wave completion). If it's a short term top then maybe it will drop to the low 120s to complete a wave 4 pullback. I'd then be looking to buy with a target around 140.

Click to enlarge, as usual.

12.43 Market is just up 7 now, other markets doing very little also.

2.19 My mucking about in Aristocrat hasn't added up to much. The stock is hanging around near the day's lows. There might have been more action if the cricket wasn't on. Market up 8.

3.41 Tea time in the cricket and it's far more gripping than anything happening in the market today which is barely up, 2 points. I guess Avoca is the pick for me, holding on to a 5 cent gain at 326 and, more to the point, holding on to the buy signal. Ie if it closes back around 321, 322 then it won't seem so convincing.

4.10 That's it, a 5 point gain on a nondescript day. One Steel came under some late pressure but there was a lot of volume. In fact, there was more volume this week than average and I take it to mean that the stock has found a level. It's a tired old long position but it makes sense to hold for longer.

Otherwise Avo finished at 327 and the rest did little.

There will be limited trading tonight in the US so Monday may be a better day.

All eyes on the cricket. Thu Nov 25

A nice big overnight rebound but we recovered yesterday so the rise is moderate at 17 points after the first 20 minutes or so.
The first test starts this morning in Brisbane so volume might dwindle over the next couple of days especially with the US closed for Thanksgiving tonight.
I sold a handful of Aru at 130 and Lyc at 160 as they continued to strengthen. I've also bought a few Linc back on a fairly flimsy buy set up, at 239, because it's such an old favourite that I can't bear to miss out if it has made a pennant correction and is ready to rally.

Another new long position is very small so far in nickel producer Western Areas. Long a smidgin at 595 with a stop at 570. It's quite illiquid so I might get some cheapies if there's a blip down.

11.38 The opening skirmishes in the first test are gripping and activity has almost stopped. Out of another handful of Lyc at 165 as they're the one thing that is moving.

1.01 That's lunch in the cricket and the market has just ticked up a few points after drifting back for 2 hours. Up 12.

The Asx 200 needs to get through about 4620 in order to look good. Here's the 60 minute.

2.33 The market is square and it's possible that we could make a minor new low on the index given the failure to push on again. It would look quite complete on the downside if it did but I think it's more likely to hold here. No real action in the last hour or so.

I've done some tinkering here and there for a few dollars my way.

I've had a short term punt in Karoon. It has been hammered lately after the failure of an IPO to list their South American oil fields and the premium that was in it has ebbed away. Long at 758 with a stop at around 740 based on the 60 minute chart.

And here's the daily. I'm obviously looking for it to have made a higher low; it's through yesterday's high of 762 having just got to 763.

2.55 Asian markets are generally firm today with even the Kospi back in the black. Our market is following suit and is up 9. I had second thoughts about Linc and sold out at 240.

4.15 Also had second thoughts and sold the Wsa at 595. Like Linc, just too marginal.
The market finished with a gain of 9 points. Lynas held on to 11 cents to close at 164.

Lil Kim. Wed Nov 24

North Korea is playing soldiers again and the talk is that they want attention with the handover of power to Kim Jong-Un. It's helped to stoke up the bearishness so that Europe and the States fell 1 to 2%, the CAC40 was a little worse.
Looking at the Xjo chart again, and assuming that 4560 doesn't hold, I'm wondering where it's going to stop. Since the swing low in late August, the Xjo rallied 500 points and has now fallen 230 with perhaps another 30 to 50 to come on the open. It was about a 12% rally and compares to rallies of minimum 15% in most other markets. They've also come back less. For example, the German market has rallied about 19% and only retraced about 3% so far.
The AUD had a strong rally versus the USD in that time which may have hindered the local performance but that argument is dented when you see how the market has dropped since the Aussie dollar peak. That is, weakness in the AUD might have been expected to provide a little support on the downside if it provided a headwind going the other way.

10.36 The market fell 38 on the open to 4551 but has rallied 10 points since then. It seems like the first time in the last few weeks that the Xjo has outperformed the overnight lead. It's early in the trading day so things can turn South again later but it's still the best open for a while.
It's a fairly orderly retreat in general with Lynas the outperformer among my watchlist stocks following on from the announcement that they are going to replace Intoll in the Asx 100 index.

10.45 I've bought some Lynas after prevaricating for a little while. I'm long at 143.5 with a tight stop at 135. The chart looks quite solid if it gets through 148-150.

11.58 According to Sky Business, the bombings of disputed South Korean territory are simply a cry for help. Nice.

The Kospi is down less than 1% after initial fears of heavy falls. Our market is hanging on to the early bounce from the lows and the loss is 21 points.
Lynas is up to 147 after the announcement that they are close to signing a long term supply agreement with a Japanese customer. A further reminder that there is some substance to the story.

1.10 The market almost got back to square and is only down 7.

Lynas is still firm while Ost has managed a small gain although at 253 it's still in territory where I was originally planning to stop out. Having said that, it has the look of a falling wedge which can be a nice reversal. In this situation, a stock is grinding lower with reducing momentum and a narrowing range.

Awe is my worst position on the day, down 4 at 163.5, but above the breakout level and I added a further 10k at 162.5.

2.14 Index much the same, down 12, and the Kospi is down 0.6%, Chinese markets are up a half to one percent also.

Here's the Awe chart. This was always a tricky one, trying to pick the level where the retracement stops. It's still well clear of the surge through 155 so no reason to fret.

And Lynas is clear of the two recent highs.

3.10 Out of the last Aax at 286. I still like them, I just had very little left so I wanted to create some mental space. I might get another buying opportunity. Also out of the last of the extra Mmx at 126, still have the initial long position which is in the black at last.
Bought a few extra Aru this morning at 119 and just tipped out half at 122. Will try to keep the extra Aru in case the stock tracks Lynas closely. The placement at 120 was in two tranches and the smaller part of the new issue comes on stream in a week or so. It doesn't seem to be weighing on the stock for now though.

3.21 Bsl is looking like a nice, low risk long. The first leg up broke through the previous swing low at 198 and it might have made a higher low. It has also popped through yesterday's range to make a healthy reversal bar. However, I'm already long One Steel and I don't suppose one will rally and not the other, so I'll let this opportunity pass. It's a technically stronger chart although Ost has the potential for a more explosive move.

4.11 The index didn't quite get back to square but managed a respectable loss of 4 points.

The rare earths stocks kept strengthening, Aru closing at 125 and Lyc at 153. A surprisingly good day.

King Canute. Tue Nov 23

It's more properly King Cnut but since that's a dangerous one to spell, he's commonly known as Canute. I've seen the beach where he's supposed to have tried to turn back the tide, at Bosham, and maybe things have changed since Cnut's day but there was hardly any tide that you'd notice and still the king couldn't reverse it.
(He's given a bad press because he was ridiculing his lickspittle courtiers who'd been bigging him up.)
I've been in Cnut mode, trying to fight the market lately. Once more, it's down despite a late rally in the States which left the main indices just below breakeven. We're in that phase we've had sporadically through 2010 where Euro worries and China slowdown are dominating sentiment.
I've cut Linc for 246 this morning because it might have made a double top. I'm not unhappy with this. My entry at 243 was not brilliant and it fell away after I bought. If it has made a minor double top then perhaps it will fall back towards 210, 220 which should be a good entry.

Best news is Avoca which does seem to have turned the tide. It's back up at 323, helped by an overnight rise in gold.

10.52 The Xjo, shown below on a 60 minute basis, failed to break back above short term resistance yesterday and made a lower high. There are a couple of support levels here, but I'm assuming they're going to break which would give targets down to the range lows at 4580 and 4560.

11.37 Ago has announced a decent resource upgrade at one of their mines although the stock hasn't jumped on the news. Otherwise, support is holding and the index is down 17.

Aru is continuing to strengthen, up to 119.5, and my only problem position is One Steel. Ost made a minor announcement that iron ore sales would be at the upper end of forecasts. Because they're not a pure steel producer, they have a hedge against flat steel prices with their iron ore sales and forecasts for FY11 and FY12 mean that they look very cheap. Admittedly, that's building in a steel price recovery and it's very hard to gauge whether that will happen or not.

I bought at 260 and they've slipped below support at 254. I'm prepared to stretch the friendship because the selling momentum is quite weak and it seems like a long squeeze for all those who jumped in on the first rally in mid November.

 1.24 I've been hunting around but haven't seen anything particularly compelling on the long or short side. I'm reasonably happy with what I've got and even Ost is clawing its way back, having gone 252 bid.

The market is following Chinese indices down and the Xjo is sitting at 4616, lower by 27.

Aax is resuming its run and is back up to 280. I still have 10k left, having sold out at 275 a few extras I bought on the dip. I'd take anything above 290 because I can't see it going straight through last week's short squeeze highs.

2.24 I was just looking at the Asx 200 chart on a closing basis. Interesting. One way to look at it is to see the first swing down from 4800 to 4700 as an "a" leg, followed by a little b wave rally and then 5 smaller waves to make up a c leg. Probably clutching at straws and the market is obviously still in selling mode but if the bottom of the range was to hold then the selling could be almost complete.

3.28 On our lows with Chinese markets down around 2%. I sold a couple of Aax at 288, didn't quite manage 290.

4.14 I did some more housekeeping on the close, sold more Aax at 287 (just 2.5k left), some Aru at 120, some Avo at 322 and a little earlier, some Mmx at 123 after a late blip up and a small gain vis a vis the extra stock I bought yesterday, (the first lot was at 125.5). My positions did pretty well so it was a good day in spite of what was happening to the broad market.
It's funny, now that the market has fallen 5 or 6% in 2 and a half weeks, I'm seeing a spate of bearish articles.

Vacuum? Mon Nov 22

US stocks shrugged off early weakness to close slightly up and since Chinese markets reversed course late on Friday and there was no rate rise, it left the Aussie market looking isolated. We've bounced 38 points early, helped along by Sunday's confirmation of an Irish bailout from the EU.
It's possible that we could run all day as there might be a vacuum of selling. My positions are mixed though, with Avoca the worst, down 5 on light volume, and Linc up a further 8 at 254 and looking quite good.
Zooming in on the Xjo 60 minute chart, Friday's low could have formed a double bottom and if we push through the Friday high then there's a good chance that we keep going.

It's noon and recently this has been the time when the market has started an inexorable decline after early optimism has faded. So far, the Asx 200 has retreated from the early high of up 42 points and is up 23 points so maybe we're still reading from the same script. I'm just waiting and watching.

12.55 Ok, we've avoided the usual sell off and the market is hanging in with a gain of 31 points as we await the HK open. I was getting a little paranoid by Friday about the persistent selling but really, it's just the rhythm a market can get into. I'm hoping that we'll see the tide turn today in which case there could be some solid gains over the next week or two.

Nagging at me is the thought that we could instead get the situation we saw in August where there was a 3 wave pullback because despite 2 weeks of retracement and stabilisation elsewhere, the local market seems very short of enthusiasm.

1.12 I've still got some Arafura which I picked up at 107 last week, along with a few extra at slightly higher levels since then. It has edged its way back to 115.5 and I'm trying to work out what it could do. This is about the third or fourth time I've tried to pick a support level in Aru and I've had to stop out on the other occasions.

Looking at the daily, I suppose I can target the last couple of swing highs which gives me 125 and 136. After such a big sell off I'm quite sceptical that it can regain recent highs but if it has bottomed then even a moderate retracement would take it to around 130. If a more robust rally develops it would still be likely to pause at around 140 so for now I can use that as a guideline.

2.37 The Hang Seng is down about 0.4% and the Shanghai index is up about the same. The Aussie market is slightly above its lows, up 15. I've jobbed out a few Aru at about 115, having bought some extras this morning at 112, 112.5.

3.07 Almost comically gloomy now, the market up 7 points despite HK recovering a little and most other markets stronger.US overnight futures are up about half a percent too.

4.10 The final result was a rise of 14 points.

I bought and sold some Aax, Aru and Cgf for small gains on the day and bought a few more Avo and Mmx. Avo is a problem position, down 11 by the close, but looking quite stretched so I'm leaving it long with 300 as a stop and the thought that it will probably retrace to 340ish even if the bull run is over.

Frankly, pathetic. Fri Nov 19

Geez, what do we need to see in order to rally? After 45 minutes the market is up 25 points. Bear in mind that a virtually identical fall in overseas markets compared to last night's rise saw the Xjo fall 75 points the other day. On top of that, it was the risk assets rebounding, we had a little buy signal on the Xjo 60 minute chart and we're probably oversold and at the bottom of the range.
Obviously, that's the rant of a disappointed long. My positions are mildly positive. I've added a few here and sold a few there but no real changes.

11.40 I have bought something else. It's Murchison and consistent with the mood of the day, I'm not even sure it's worth writing about. I was thinking about buying it yesterday when I would have had a tight stop but I didn't pull the trigger. Now I've paid 125.5 as it jumps on news that they've secured some financing. It could just be a retracement rally but it's a good chance of getting to the low 140s. Given the target, it's just about a worthwhile risk/reward equation.

12.56 Once again, we're taking the glass half empty (and full of hemlock) approach and having ignored very strong rises in Asian markets yesterday, we're taking a flat follow up as our cue to sell off. Gains are just 13 points now.

It's counterproductive to rage against the market; it's more that I can't quite get a grip on why there is so little enthusism for stocks and why we're continuing to underperform. Our rates are higher, but they have been for some time and the only change in the last few months is a 25 bp rise. The strength in the AUD hasn't previously been a problem and base metals look like recovering from the sudden sell off - the metals stocks were under pressure previously anyway. Valuations are very reasonable, in fact, some of the best I've seen when the market is outside panic mode.

1.05 On further reflection, this is entirely typical. I've seen this happen before and it tells you that there isn't a lot of foreign activity in the market at present. The Aussie character tends to caution and the local market is heavily overbroked and full of house traders. As a tribe, they are very keen to short stocks.

3.03 Back from a visit to the dentist and the market is now down as the malaise continues. More psychosomatic than actual, I think.

3.36 The Asx 200 has recovered to be down 13 while the HK market is down 1.5% so maybe we're actually outperforming. Generally, I'm unsure as to whether the Aussie index has made a higher low or not. I'm fairly confident that the range will hold and that downside is limited so it's a matter of waiting for the tide to turn.

4.10 The weakness in Hong Kong is related to the potential for a rate rise which, apparently, would happen tomorrow.

By the end the Xjo closed down, lower by 11 points. Two weeks of retracement and I haven't had a short position. I'm actually breakeven for the period but skewed to market strength and would love to see my long positions hit support and rally.

Overcompensation. Thu Nov 18

You never know what it's going to be with the situation which occurred in Aax yesterday. There could have been big upgrades everywhere and the price jumping another 20 cents on the open or a more modest reappraisal in the cold light of day. It's been the second of the two and, at 11.20 am, the stock has slipped 15 cents to 276. I sold another 2.5k at 286 soon after the open and I'm left with 10k. I'm just playing it by ear now. I think I'd buy some more in the mid 260s. Here's a 60 minute chart.

I think the market might have bottomed in the short term. This morning the index opened stronger by a few points, then was down 10 and is now square again. The early strength and sell off was predictable but it wasn't a sure thing that we'd steady up again.

I nibbled at a few more Awe and Ost at yesterday's entry prices of 168 and 260 which is roughly where they are now. Aru held yesterday and is back up to 110.

There is a plethora of stocks which have come down to support and I've picked Avoca as a new trade. There's some slight overlap at 320 but it seems to have held. Long at 323 with a stop at 315ish. It's just starting to move actually, 330 after spending most of the morning around 320-322.

11.42 I was worried about Linc having another retracement leg down but the situation looks rosier this morning. On the back of some gas drilling success in Alaska, the stock has bounced back to 241. There's a good chance now that it can continue to run. A trade at 246 would confirm yesterday's low as a higher low and provide a minor buy signal.

 1.47 Avoca has drifted back to 322 which is a drag because gold is up $11 and most of the golds are bouncing nicely. Aax is at 267 and I picked up a few at 268 with more on the bid at 265. The market is still quite flat, up 3.

3.05 Asian markets are up 1% or more, pretty much across the board, and gold is up $13. US overnight futures are up about 0.7%. The Aussie market is firmer by 8 points and is making a buy signal on the 60 minute charts but we're continuing our pattern of underperforming.
I've accumulated some Aax at 265 and 268. They might have stopped falling. Nothing much has changed otherwise.

4.16 The Asx 200 index closed at 4640 which was a rise of 16 points; a lacklustre performance in relative terms.
My positions were little changed with the exception of a rise in Linc to 241 and a 24 cent fall in Aax to 267 which is about the average price of the extra stock I bought.

Carry bagged. Wed Nov 17

The mainland Chinese markets sold off hard again yesterday afternoon although it's in the context of a stellar run since their return from the holiday week in early October. Here's the Shanghai futures chart.

Along with a ratcheting up of European debt worries centred around Ireland, it was enough to spark the capitulation I was starting to worry about yesterday. All the risk stuff was hammered, gold, oil, base metals, the AUD etc. European indices fell over 2% and the US was marked down by about 1.5 to 1.7%.

Despite the market having fallen pretty hard over recent sessions, I can't see a lot of missed opportunities on the short side. Here's a possibility in Minara.
I think I could reasonably have been looking to short a potential lower high after a very marginal and fleeting peak in mid October. 81 might have been the entry level, but it's not a startling trade yet.

A better one could have been Lynas. When I stopped out at 141 there was a good case that it would swing back towards the recent lows - I was thinking about trying to buy around 120 with a tight stop. So again, that 141 level could have been a cut and reverse situation. Also, it's quite plausible that this doesn't hold 116 but instead heads for the 105 support level.

Apart from these, I haven't seen much that stands out which is comforting.
My reaction after a tough trading period is pretty standard; I look at my rules and guidelines and try to make them more specific. It's a dumb thing to do though. Let's say I've identified a stock in a nice clean uptrend and I want to buy dips. My rule of thumb might be to wait for at least a 50% pullback of the previous swing and to try to buy at a target level. Quite often the retracement will fall short of there and at other times it might be closer to 80%; and that's when it goes right.
So, if I've bought the pullback of a move from 300 to 400 at 350, I might have to watch it go back to 320 even if the uptrend resumes as I've hoped for. I try to fine tune my entries and wait for deeper pullbacks to improve my risk/reward but ultimately the situation is inherently fuzzy. There are all sorts of factors that come into play, eg, if overall sentiment is weak, say, or there happens to be a big seller, then the sell off might go deeper than normal. And since the situation is fuzzy it makes sense to me that my approach should match that. This means having to use my judgement, perhaps to work my way into a position or to chop and try again or to go harder than usual etc etc.
When I use my judgement - within a framework of how I approach the market - it can create more stress and I'm not sure how I avoid that. My approach is probability driven and I can trade with that understanding but as a human, it's not so easy to feel good about it. I can keep telling myself to trade like a casino and try to suppress the fear and greed. A second way is to practice a zen like detachment and that's probably the way to go. It sounds like much the same thing but I'm not sure that it is. The first approach is for the mind to dominate the emotions but emotions usually bust out at some unfortunate point or another. The second is more wholistic, I think. It might be expressed as a way to get all the parts of you working together.
It's handy too, if you have a monastery you can pop into for a month or two to develop that zen like detachment.

10.10 We've opened with a drop of 75 points with resource stocks quite hard hit. Soon after the opening is usually the weakest point on days like this.

10.17 And here's the Xjo chart, working its way towards the bottom of the range. There's a bit of support around 4620 and that's held it so far.

10.51 After falling to 124 early on, Lynas has rebounded to be almost unchanged at 131. Using that as an indication, I've gone long the other main rare earth play, Aru, at 107 as it's just above some decent support at around 103, 104 and I can use that as a stop.

Aax upgraded its forecast profits early and is trading down 3 at 246. It made a very minor new low early and I bought a handful more at 235 as the upgrade had been announced but some stops were still being triggered.

11.29 Sold the extra Aax from early on, at 249. They're up to 253.

11.57 Aax is really taking off, up 18 at 267. I just sold 2.5k at 265 using my usual fuzzy logic. I've still got most of my overnight stock, 27.5k left.

12.08 Still running. Out of another 2.5k of Aax at 277.

Overall, the market has made a double bottom on the intraday chart. Japan and Korea aren't down much. If China hangs in there we can bounce this afternoon.

12.33 Aax is still the big story and seemed to be starting to stall so I sold out a couple more at 280. They're up to 284. I have to be careful now. I'm happy to have sold 10k out at a reasonable average (given a jobbing profit earlier) but I do want to see what the rest of the day brings.

The market is hanging around near the lows because the Shanghai market has opened and is down another 1.5%

12.56 The Hang Seng looks like opening down 1.1% (it was pretty flat yesterday) and the mainland Chinese markets have trimmed their losses to under 1%. We're still sitting down 68 points but I think that there's a reasonable chance of a bounce.

I've added two new positions that I've been following. I've only bought partial size because on a daily basis, there's no obvious sign of a bottom yet.

The first is some Awe at 168. It's just trying to gauge reasonable levels for the retracement.

The other one is Ost where I'm long at 260. This is not in a trend like Awe but sentiment is changing towards the stock, the last bounce overlapped the previous swing high and it briefly got back through resistance levels at around 280. I'm hoping for another leg up here and the stop is close.

2.14 After all the action, it's now a quiet choppy rally. I'm assuming that we'll see new lows on the Xjo but maybe not until tomorrow morning. I'm also hoping that those new lows would be minor since I've got a few positions, including the new ones, which are sitting just above support.

Here's the Xjo chart.

Aax is still pushing up although the momentum has slowed right down. Lynas is also firm at 133.5 but I'm long Aru and that has fallen very close to support at 105.

2.41 The little rally has faded and maybe the new low I was looking for is going to happen today. Most of my stuff is hanging in there.

I'm planning to get out of Challenger. I bought them at 468 and that's where I've started tipping them out. I think they still look good but now that the market has fallen, this trade doesn't offer as much upside as the others.

3.37 Ausenco watch.....Now up 20% on the day at 300. Just sold another 2.5k at 299. I only have 12.5k left but my average sale price is ok and I don't want to get too smart. It's just below the September high of 303.

The Xjo made a higher low by a tiny fraction and bounced slightly but we're still down 1.4% which is about the worst in the region. It's a reasonable enough reaction on a standalone basis with commodities so weak but given our underperformance lately, it's a bit grim.

4.20 That was a turn up for the books; made quite good money today thanks to Aax (closed at 291) and the rest holding up reasonably well.

The index finally made a lower low after a congestion (on the intraday charts) at about 3.50 pm and the closing mark was 4624. I'm hoping that 4620 can hold.

My dollar exposure is about the same with sales in Aax and Cgf and new longs in Aru, Awe and Ost. Linc is my main concern. I was too agressive yesterday and I'm worried that it will drift back lower towards the breakout.