Aristocrat plunges. Fri Nov 26

A quiet night due to Thanksgiving but the larger European indices were stronger with the FTSE up close to 1%.
Aristocrat has had a profit warning and has slumped as low as 265 and is still down 56 at 277. Lost opportunity in hindsight with the chart having looked suspicious for some time despite looking very cheap on forward PEs. Obviously there was a lot of scepticism about it.

I've actually been punting around on the 5 minute chart. I've only been playing it from the long side but I did some quick maths and worked out that even on a nasty downgrade, the stock is on a PE of 30 for this year. Presumably there may be a recovery at some point! Anyway, I just wanted to make sure that I wasn't trying to catch a falling anvil because even a small punt can prove very costly if you fail to grasp the severity of a problem.
I'm also watching cricket, trading quite busily and trying to follow the online chat about the cricket all at the same time. It's actually a bit too intense but the action is calming down now.

I tipped out my Aru at 133, around my target level and looking like a 5 wave completion on a 60 minute chart, although in the context of a pretty good looking daily chart.

11.23 Have also sold out more of my Lynas - not much left now - as it got a tad below yesterday's close and drifted off with the market after early gains. Average was about 166.5.

Linc confirmed my original idea -I think - so I rushed back in at 247.

Karoon is stronger again, I'm hoping it will take off.

Have actually added to my Avoca position at 326 as it has made a tight little buy signal.

11.43 Oh, and earlier I got out of Murchison at 126. My opinion on this one has been that it was a tradeable retracement before another test of the lows. It wasn't going anywhere and time is of the essence with these ones. It was a fraction above breakeven as a trade.

11.59 I've added some text to make my reading of the Aru chart somewhat clearer. Ie. I see it as a 3rd wave completion where the 3rd wave subdivided into 5 (which was what I was referring to with the comment about a 5 wave completion). If it's a short term top then maybe it will drop to the low 120s to complete a wave 4 pullback. I'd then be looking to buy with a target around 140.

Click to enlarge, as usual.

12.43 Market is just up 7 now, other markets doing very little also.

2.19 My mucking about in Aristocrat hasn't added up to much. The stock is hanging around near the day's lows. There might have been more action if the cricket wasn't on. Market up 8.

3.41 Tea time in the cricket and it's far more gripping than anything happening in the market today which is barely up, 2 points. I guess Avoca is the pick for me, holding on to a 5 cent gain at 326 and, more to the point, holding on to the buy signal. Ie if it closes back around 321, 322 then it won't seem so convincing.

4.10 That's it, a 5 point gain on a nondescript day. One Steel came under some late pressure but there was a lot of volume. In fact, there was more volume this week than average and I take it to mean that the stock has found a level. It's a tired old long position but it makes sense to hold for longer.

Otherwise Avo finished at 327 and the rest did little.

There will be limited trading tonight in the US so Monday may be a better day.