Bailing out. Mon Nov 29

The market was steady at the open as last Friday's fragmented lead from the shortened Thanksgiving session seemed like a long time ago. But gradually the early sangfroid has ebbed away.
I stopped out of Karoon, covering costs, as they're not really going anywhere. The bigger problem has been Avoca. I started getting cold feet and dumped at 319 and 315 as it has clearly evolved into a minor correction - and not a buy signal - before another leg down.

11.46 The index is down 32 points as figures point to a slowing retail sector. Much as it did last week, the market faltered at the next resistance level and has then accelerated back down.

Earlier, I sold the last of the Lynas at 162.5 as they were firmer earlier. They are one of the few firm stocks in my watchlist at the moment so I'll be watching them closely for another buying opportunity.

11.52 Had another go at Aristocrat. Buying as it broke above the high of the previous bar on the 60 minute chart after it had rejected a new low. Most analysts have wearily confirmed a buy despite yet another disappointment as this year's PE is 26 and a big profit turnaround should come sooner or (probably) later. Long at 269.

1 pm The cricket is tragic if you're an Australian fan and England now have an outside chance of victory. The index seemed to gather the mood of impending doom as the English team batted cheerfully all morning and the Xjo was down 40 points a lttle while ago, completely out of kilter with the rest of the region which is in a range from mildly weaker to mildly firmer.

With US futures also mildly firmer things have turned around and the deficit has been halved. Avo has recovered to 319 but I'm still happy to be out as events aren't panning out as I expected.

1.36 The loss is just 11 points now.

A new trade this morning was Djs where I've bought at 448. My stop is around 440 with the stock having retraced most of an earlier bounce. It's a risk/reward type trade where I can see the possibility of a quick push back to 465-475 while the downside is fairly limited.

2.52 That's a very strong reversal, 52 points from the low till now when the index is up 11. It's led by the banks. There was a higher low on the Xjo chart as well so that's hopeful. According to the Dow jones Newswires chartist, a firm close today could form a bullish hammer pattern.

4.12 I've marked in a line on the updated Xjo 60 minute chart to show roughly where I think resistance is. The index closed right on it (after I'd guesstimated a level an hour ago) but it did overlap for a little while. It's a fairly hopeful sign that we could be due a short squeeze tomorrow.

In general, my positions didn't do much. The best was One Steel which bounced off the 247 low from last week and finished at 252.