Dam busting. Wed Nov 3

I'd say the dam is bulging but which way the liquidity is going to spill is another thing. The US market had a reasonable overnight rally and it feels like a proper day rather than the shifty ones we've had lately.
I haven't added any new positions but I have decided to hold on to my longs as I'm quite bullish and prepared to risk a gap down.
The Xjo has been consolidating since mid September, albeit with a slightly bullish skew, and in this time most other markets have had a rally. If we break to the upside there's a nice base and a good chance of some acceleration. A move back into the range could make for a nasty day or two for the longs, but it's hard to see a plunge in the offing.

Mml has had a nice rebound, up 29 at 568, and I sold out a sixth of my position at 559. My eventual average entry price was 548.
Linc has kicked through 200 again and got through last week's 203 high quite easily.

Arafura opened down a few cents and I bought some at 122.5 as it held support, at least temporarily. Apparently, part of the market is under a misapprehension that the Chinese failure to take up an offer of more stock has led to a $25 m shortfall but there was never an expectation that they would go ahead. The placement was only expected to raise $80 m and that was increased to $90 m. Anyway, I was humming and haaing over whether to add to my placement position and decided to do so because there's a good chance of a short squeeze going into QE2. I added a few Lyc for that reason.

No new positions then but a couple of additions to existing holdings.

12.22 The market has worked its way to a gain of 20 points. Out of some of the Aru at 130.5 and a couple more Mml at 572. Added more Lyc at 147. They're still trading around there but looking positive intraday and the pressure relief as Aru has risen away from support should extend to them.

Here's their 60 minute chart.

2.27 Out of the rest of the Aru for 132.5. The market is up 27 points and has reached the highest level since the April sell off.

3.10 I've been thinking about shorting Fmg and it has got back to the level at which I thought it could be interesting, 650. Trouble is, I'm getting increasingly bullish overall so I think I'll wait another day.

To do the Fortescue trade, I'd have to assume a lower high and a head and shoulders type pattern. More than possible and my stop would be close enough for comfort but the Xjo chart implies some good strength and Fmg normally outperforms.

4.11 Out of the extra Lynas at 147.5 average as it didn't squeeze up. Also sold a few more Mml at 571.

So, I've got a long only book ahead of the QE2 news - sell on fact? - but position size is not massive. There's not a lot of point fretting about the outcome, I'm just trading my charts. The only real judgement call is not to short Fortescue.

Xjo up 21 points.