It's possible that we could run all day as there might be a vacuum of selling. My positions are mixed though, with Avoca the worst, down 5 on light volume, and Linc up a further 8 at 254 and looking quite good.
Zooming in on the Xjo 60 minute chart, Friday's low could have formed a double bottom and if we push through the Friday high then there's a good chance that we keep going.
It's noon and recently this has been the time when the market has started an inexorable decline after early optimism has faded. So far, the Asx 200 has retreated from the early high of up 42 points and is up 23 points so maybe we're still reading from the same script. I'm just waiting and watching.
12.55 Ok, we've avoided the usual sell off and the market is hanging in with a gain of 31 points as we await the HK open. I was getting a little paranoid by Friday about the persistent selling but really, it's just the rhythm a market can get into. I'm hoping that we'll see the tide turn today in which case there could be some solid gains over the next week or two.
Nagging at me is the thought that we could instead get the situation we saw in August where there was a 3 wave pullback because despite 2 weeks of retracement and stabilisation elsewhere, the local market seems very short of enthusiasm.
1.12 I've still got some Arafura which I picked up at 107 last week, along with a few extra at slightly higher levels since then. It has edged its way back to 115.5 and I'm trying to work out what it could do. This is about the third or fourth time I've tried to pick a support level in Aru and I've had to stop out on the other occasions.
Looking at the daily, I suppose I can target the last couple of swing highs which gives me 125 and 136. After such a big sell off I'm quite sceptical that it can regain recent highs but if it has bottomed then even a moderate retracement would take it to around 130. If a more robust rally develops it would still be likely to pause at around 140 so for now I can use that as a guideline.
2.37 The Hang Seng is down about 0.4% and the Shanghai index is up about the same. The Aussie market is slightly above its lows, up 15. I've jobbed out a few Aru at about 115, having bought some extras this morning at 112, 112.5.
3.07 Almost comically gloomy now, the market up 7 points despite HK recovering a little and most other markets stronger.US overnight futures are up about half a percent too.
4.10 The final result was a rise of 14 points.
I bought and sold some Aax, Aru and Cgf for small gains on the day and bought a few more Avo and Mmx. Avo is a problem position, down 11 by the close, but looking quite stretched so I'm leaving it long with 300 as a stop and the thought that it will probably retrace to 340ish even if the bull run is over.
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