North Korea is playing soldiers again and the talk is that they want attention with the handover of power to Kim Jong-Un. It's helped to stoke up the bearishness so that Europe and the States fell 1 to 2%, the CAC40 was a little worse.
Looking at the Xjo chart again, and assuming that 4560 doesn't hold, I'm wondering where it's going to stop. Since the swing low in late August, the Xjo rallied 500 points and has now fallen 230 with perhaps another 30 to 50 to come on the open. It was about a 12% rally and compares to rallies of minimum 15% in most other markets. They've also come back less. For example, the German market has rallied about 19% and only retraced about 3% so far.
The AUD had a strong rally versus the USD in that time which may have hindered the local performance but that argument is dented when you see how the market has dropped since the Aussie dollar peak. That is, weakness in the AUD might have been expected to provide a little support on the downside if it provided a headwind going the other way.
10.36 The market fell 38 on the open to 4551 but has rallied 10 points since then. It seems like the first time in the last few weeks that the Xjo has outperformed the overnight lead. It's early in the trading day so things can turn South again later but it's still the best open for a while.
It's a fairly orderly retreat in general with Lynas the outperformer among my watchlist stocks following on from the announcement that they are going to replace Intoll in the Asx 100 index.
10.45 I've bought some Lynas after prevaricating for a little while. I'm long at 143.5 with a tight stop at 135. The chart looks quite solid if it gets through 148-150.
Lynas is up to 147 after the announcement that they are close to signing a long term supply agreement with a Japanese customer. A further reminder that there is some substance to the story.
3.10 Out of the last Aax at 286. I still like them, I just had very little left so I wanted to create some mental space. I might get another buying opportunity. Also out of the last of the extra Mmx at 126, still have the initial long position which is in the black at last.
Bought a few extra Aru this morning at 119 and just tipped out half at 122. Will try to keep the extra Aru in case the stock tracks Lynas closely. The placement at 120 was in two tranches and the smaller part of the new issue comes on stream in a week or so. It doesn't seem to be weighing on the stock for now though.
Looking at the Xjo chart again, and assuming that 4560 doesn't hold, I'm wondering where it's going to stop. Since the swing low in late August, the Xjo rallied 500 points and has now fallen 230 with perhaps another 30 to 50 to come on the open. It was about a 12% rally and compares to rallies of minimum 15% in most other markets. They've also come back less. For example, the German market has rallied about 19% and only retraced about 3% so far.
The AUD had a strong rally versus the USD in that time which may have hindered the local performance but that argument is dented when you see how the market has dropped since the Aussie dollar peak. That is, weakness in the AUD might have been expected to provide a little support on the downside if it provided a headwind going the other way.
10.36 The market fell 38 on the open to 4551 but has rallied 10 points since then. It seems like the first time in the last few weeks that the Xjo has outperformed the overnight lead. It's early in the trading day so things can turn South again later but it's still the best open for a while.
It's a fairly orderly retreat in general with Lynas the outperformer among my watchlist stocks following on from the announcement that they are going to replace Intoll in the Asx 100 index.
10.45 I've bought some Lynas after prevaricating for a little while. I'm long at 143.5 with a tight stop at 135. The chart looks quite solid if it gets through 148-150.
11.58 According to Sky Business, the bombings of disputed South Korean territory are simply a cry for help. Nice.
The Kospi is down less than 1% after initial fears of heavy falls. Our market is hanging on to the early bounce from the lows and the loss is 21 points.Lynas is up to 147 after the announcement that they are close to signing a long term supply agreement with a Japanese customer. A further reminder that there is some substance to the story.
1.10 The market almost got back to square and is only down 7.
Lynas is still firm while Ost has managed a small gain although at 253 it's still in territory where I was originally planning to stop out. Having said that, it has the look of a falling wedge which can be a nice reversal. In this situation, a stock is grinding lower with reducing momentum and a narrowing range.
Awe is my worst position on the day, down 4 at 163.5, but above the breakout level and I added a further 10k at 162.5.
2.14 Index much the same, down 12, and the Kospi is down 0.6%, Chinese markets are up a half to one percent also.
Here's the Awe chart. This was always a tricky one, trying to pick the level where the retracement stops. It's still well clear of the surge through 155 so no reason to fret.
And Lynas is clear of the two recent highs.
Bought a few extra Aru this morning at 119 and just tipped out half at 122. Will try to keep the extra Aru in case the stock tracks Lynas closely. The placement at 120 was in two tranches and the smaller part of the new issue comes on stream in a week or so. It doesn't seem to be weighing on the stock for now though.
3.21 Bsl is looking like a nice, low risk long. The first leg up broke through the previous swing low at 198 and it might have made a higher low. It has also popped through yesterday's range to make a healthy reversal bar. However, I'm already long One Steel and I don't suppose one will rally and not the other, so I'll let this opportunity pass. It's a technically stronger chart although Ost has the potential for a more explosive move.
4.11 The index didn't quite get back to square but managed a respectable loss of 4 points.
The rare earths stocks kept strengthening, Aru closing at 125 and Lyc at 153. A surprisingly good day.
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