Chin up. Mon Feb 28

It looks like we pre-empted the European and US bounce on Friday and as civil unrest continues in N. Africa and the Middle East, the index has slipped back 15 points towards the end of the first hour. It's all a bit gloomy after some early cheer.
I got out of half of my Lynas at 198.5 as they rose a further 4% following Friday's afternoon run. They're looking pretty good now and I'll be looking to buy dips.

Copper bounced 3% on Friday and US copper stocks were firmer but Ozl is continuing to edge down. Gold should be a beneficiary but the gold stocks are mixed. However, spot gold is maintaining a steep uptrend and now that Sbm has stabilised, I like the prospect of another leg up.
Here's spot gold on a daily chart.

And Sbm's daily. The chart has a nice, reverse head and shoulders look about it which would imply some acceleration to the rise as it moves away from the turning point.

11.46 Resolute has tended to run its own race rather than follow the gold price too closed so I'm focussing on another gold stock, Regis, which has fairly recently found its way into the Asx 200. Long a few today at 205 with a stop around 196. I'm anticipating that a slow, shallow correction from 221 to 200 is now complete.

I've also bought some Ipl at 436. I had a minor win with a short position here recently and I suspect that this is a retracement rally. However, the uptrend is intact and it's not impossible that the stock can bounce back to new highs. It's a play on food inflation because it produces fertilisers.

12.19 Talking of inflation, the Chinese are keen to jawbone their economic growth down. They've announced a growth target of 7% annually over the next 5 years which compares with their previous target of 7.5%. It may be aspirational since the 7.5% was comfortably exceeded in recent years but it doesn't help sentiment here.

12.58 I was quite impressed with the Linc news which came out on Friday but it seems as if the broker community is not following the stock so closely any more. I sold out Friday's extra stock at 281 and Lnc is now trading down 5 at 274. I'm still long the initial tranche, bought at 265.

Chairman Peter Bond, like a Twiggy Forrest mini-me, is working the media. The company has just announced that Bond is driving on Linc produced synthetic diesel from Chinchilla in Queensland to Perth. A documentary crew is coming along.

1.16 Amusingly, Lnc is back up 1 at 280. All power to the publicity stunt.

2.18 Chinese markets are lower but pretty much in step with everywhere else, so the 7% target doesn't seem to be having an effect. The Xjo is down 13 with few highlights in my list.

3.27 Last trading day of the month and the Asx system is down which may cause problems for a few funds. I've been having a lie down.

4.11 More waiting around as the Asx is hoping to get some sort of late trading happening by 5 pm. The Topix and HSI are comfortably up now and US overnight futures have recovered half of their earlier losses.

5 pm No further trade and a long night ahead for the techies at the Asx.

Carbon Tax. Fri Feb 25

The Australian government is starting the process of bringing in a carbon tax. It's not great for the steelmakers and I'm not sure how much is built into the share price. I decided to sell my Ost position at 278 and 277 this morning. It has just gone ex a 6 cent per share dividend so it was a net small profit on the trade. It's a tricky chart too, but if it makes another base around 270 it may be worth a look.

It was a volatile night with the oil price surging and then reversing on various rumours with the US finishing fairly flat. The Aussie market is square after an hour or so and I was mostly worried about my gold stocks as the risk indicator came back about 10 dollars overnight and the stocks I'm long had been underperforming.

Rsg is steady on a solid but unspectacular result. I'm finding this stock a disappointment though and the chart is overlapping so, as with Ost, I've sold most of my long at around 135.

St Barbara is a touch lower, so the golds have done better than I feared especially with American giant Newmont having been crunched 7% overnight.

Qantas has not reacted as well to an easing of the oil price but is slowing climbing off the canvas and has pushed back up a couple to 235.

1.12 Linc has just resumed trading after a brief suspension due to an announcement. Lnc has acquired some old oil fields in Wyoming from bankrupt company Rancher for US$20 m. These are full of stranded oil and are negligible producers because of pressure loss (?) but the company believes that they can produce as much as 10,000 barrels per day by using a technique called carbon dioxide flooding. I've just done a quick search on wikipedia and this has been successfully used since 2000 at the Weyburn field in Canada. It all seems a bit too good to be true but I punted some more stock at 275. It's up to 277.

The fields have produces 146.6 million barrels of oil to date since the early 1900s from an estimed original oil in place of 466.6 million barrels. Why didn't Rancher use this technique? Maybe they wouldn't have gone bankrupt.

Linc has proved to be a very astute acquirer of assets so maybe I shouldn't be so sceptical. Also the skill set involved seems to be linked (!) to their underground coal gasification techniques so it's possible that other companies are going to miss these types of opportunities.

2.37 The Xjo has risen sharply in the last hour as the HSI rallies, we're up 27 points.

I've gone long Ozl at 164. This has come down towards the bottom of the range after a failed high. There's a reasonable stop just below the last swing low of 160 and the leg down has split into 5 waves. There's no evidence that the sell off is complete but since the stop is close and there has been some form of 5th wave, I'm comfortable with the risk.

3.22 If the market was to close now, the Asx 200 would have made a bullish engulfing candlestick. Apparently, it's a moderately reliable reversal pattern! The word "moderately" doesn't fill me with enthusiasm but there you go.

3.58 Boral is a stale old short position but I'm still there and starting to get some confirmation with a minor sell signal yesterday that's been backed up by a relatively weak performance today; down 2 in a firmer market. I bought back some short stock at 549 and replaced it with March 541 puts at 9.5 average. I'm hoping for a move back down towards 520.

4.12 The index finished 27 points higher and didn't quite manage to make a bullish engulfing signal.

I sold a handful of Lnc at 279 on the close to reduce the average of the extra stock I bought. I also sold out some Qan at 238, having bought Mar 225 calls at 13 yesterday. There's notionally a few cents of premium in these calls but I figure that I can replace some of the stock I'm already holding for parity so my downside risk is reduced.

 

Hairy moments. Thu Feb 24

I had a stark reminder of the perils of reporting season as Aristocrat reported a result in range but with the hint of an improved outlook. That was enough for it to charge up as high as 340. I waited for it to settle and it's back at 323. I have to admit that the chart looked very promising last night and I was too rigid in sticking to my plan. Could easily have taken off the position and waited for the result. Anyway, I shorted a few more at 334 and bought them back at 329. Since then I've nibbled at a couple of the short position at 323. I'm hoping for a big reversal but if it stabilises will just stop out.
On the numbers, the stock is still expensive and building in a recovery. The company seems to be talking up some quite small green shoots.

Otherwise, my scenario for today was wrong. I was expecting some follow through in the States which might leave us weaker on the open but thought buying could kick in again if there were no further developments of note in Libya and the region. I'm not sure that the situation has changed much and there's a growing possibility that Gadaffi will take the money and run but I woke up last night and watched some of the US session - a sure sign that I know I've got the wrong book. It was blanket coverage of the Gulf and plenty of speculation about potential trouble in Saudi Arabia so fear was definitely the driving force.

Some of that tension has carried over and the index is now down 38 after about 90 minutes. My positions are generally fine except for Qan which is 6 lower at 235. Since I missed the early stop there, I'm going to wait to see if a new low will succeed or fail. It looks like it will make one but could reverse sharpish if things quiet down in the oil market.

12.06 There's some bargain hunting kicking in which has helped the index to recover to a loss of 23. The Japanese are down abut 0.8% but the Kospi is a touch higher.

Lynas bounced quite well yesterday after opening at a low for the day of 180. I decided to put on a long on the basis that it could make a higher low - with 168ish my stop. The long is at 183.5 and the stock is a little firmer at 186.

Despite oil and gold rising overnight, my energy play in Linc and gold longs in Rsg and Sbm are unexciting today.

12.58 Early indications are for the HSI to open down about 0.2% so I'm hoping for some more of a recovery locally. Down 20 now.
Aristocrat is back at 319 and Boral has fallen 6 to 550 so the shorts are ok.
Qan has made a marginal new low, hitting 232, and may well go lower but I bought some March 325 calls at 13 since I think there's a strong possibility of a bullish reversal.

1.50 I stopped out of All at 322. It could still be a reversal day but you would expect to see more weakness by now and the stock is just consolidating above the recent highs.
The Japanese indices have recovered half of their losses while the HSI, Kospi and US overnight futures are stronger. The Asx 200 isn't playing though and we're down 0.5%.

3.15 It's fairly boring, not untypical for an options expiry day where major stocks get stuck at a strike price and the index grinds to a halt.
I'm concerned about the gold stocks I'm holding. They haven't responded to the strong run in the gold price. If gold has a breather they could react on the downside. Newcrest was a much more simple play on the gold price - next time I have a strong view, I might do better to look for some call options here.

4.14 The market faded away in the last hour to close down 37 points. The reasonably valid conclusion is that the situation is unlikely to resolve tonight and momentum is to the downside. A grim day for my positions, the only cut on the long side would be in Qan and I think that's worth paying to look for another day. The rest of them have just wound back recent gains.

Left a bit, right a bit... Wed Feb 23

The US indices caught up to the rest of the world after their holiday and the Aussie SPI market overreacted during the night trading. The index opened below the 4840 swing high from mid January and hit an early low of 4831 which was down about 25. It was a buy on open market though and the loss has been trimmed to 8 points.
I bought back some of my short position in All at 303 and all of Fmg at 645 (or 30 for the last puts), Lynas at 182 and Ozl at 164.5. I was too greedy in Bld and missed some early sales around 550.
The golds were hit early and although they're still lower, they've recovered the worst. Added to the Rsg and Sbm positions on the dip then decided to sell out the extra stock.
That was all fine then and I've also put on a couple of new long positions in Linc energy and One Steel.
I bought the Lnc at 265 average as they've retraced all the way to a breakout level. There could be some overlap so I won't have a supertight stop, perhaps around 250. The high may have been made in this stock but if not, there's the possibility that we've seen a sharp wave 4 retracement with a top above 305 to come.

One Steel was sold off on the basis of a poor Bsl result in a weak market. It got back to the top of the previous range and I picked up stock at 281. Stop is at 270 and it's another one where a new high might come fairly soon.

11.42 Qantas is down 4 at 242 and it's one for the "what was I thinking?" file as I was surprised that it was holding up in early trading yesterday given the surge in oil prices. The stock probably has limited downside, barring an oil price explosion, but it had already lost momentum and I could easily have sold to buy back. Oh well.

1.50 Asian indices are flat to slightly down and the Asx 200 is mirroring that with a drop of 9 points and a tight range after the initial bounce. US overnight futures are mildly higher.

The intraday chart for the Xjo is setting up for an afternoon rally with a potential higher low but needs to push through the earlier highs to confirm.

2.51 Aristocrat is squeezing up as we await tomorrow's report. I re-shorted some stock at 309 and 313. It's not a big position and could be short term volatile in the morning so I won't be too reactive.

 3.37 The market had a second attempt to rally but faded again as Asian markets retreated. We're down 13 points now. My book is ok because the golds have mostly recovered and new positions, Lnc and Ost, are doing pretty well. It's just as well because my two shorts in All and Bld are outperforming on the upside.

4.11 We'll have to wait for tomorrow. I'm leaning towards a bounce and I've placed my bets accordingly.

There's a good chance that the US indices can fall further because they've been running for a while so, in that case, I'll be looking for another buy-on-open situation.

Mah Jong effect? Tue Feb 22

Just heard an interesting comment on the business station. A presenter was wondering whether the unrest could spread to China and the guest made the point that living standards are rising in China while only the few get rich in the oil states. Rising food prices are nearly always a factor in revolutions but the Chinese consumer may be able to cope better than before or perhaps the Chinese government may have more capacity to keep food inflation down. It's a big wild card though and the index is finding it hard to recover from yesterday's surprisingly deep slump. It's only the prospect of the US - which was closed for Presidents' Day - sailing blithely onwards that is keeping the index to a loss of 6 after nearly an hour.
That, and an announcement of an additional off-market buy back from Bhp combined with a medium sized shale gas acquisition that has helped the big Australian to jump more than 2.5%.

11 am Oil ran hard last night and gold was also firm, along with most base metals, although copper missed out again. The gold stocks are solid but not rocketing. Sbm is steady and Rsg is potentially breaking out as it trades at 142. The spot gold chart has a lot of momentum and it's looking like new highs are on the way.

I bought back the last of my Pdn short at 500 as the 60 minute chart showed signs of life and I thought that, being an energy play, the stock could be in demand. It hasn't turned out that way though and the stock is back at 496.
Aristocrat is holding up, down only 1 at 307. It dipped to 300 though and I bought a few which I've re-shorted at 305, 306.
Fortescue is down again and I sold a few more of the Feb 675 puts for 14.5 but shorted and bought back stock around it so effectively got a price of 17 for them.
Qan is holding up surprisingly well considering the oil price surge.

11.39 Shorting Boral was the stupidest trade I've done for about a year and I added insult to injury by refusing to cut all the short stock. Plus I bought a few puts over the last couple of days.
When I enter a trade with no obvious stop, I tend to get myself in trouble and this was no exception. I'm happy to stretch a stop if I can see where it is but this was just a skyrocket. Anyway, I've borne the pain here, and it's usually about the frustration rather than the money. The stock is finally starting to look like a natural - albeit speculative - sell as it follows a doji bar with a break of the lows.
Now that it's finally given me the signal that I was pre-empting, the challenge is to hold on for a day or two. The Feb 566 puts I bought yesterday are doing quite well but have only made up for the loss on some Feb 541 puts from the day before.
It briefly broke the previous low last Friday, the day it went ex dividend but that was only for about half an hour. If it can't rally back as the day goes on, a few of the smart punters who are long will be selling out.

12.02 Unlike yesterday, the local market is not on its own with geopolitical worries. Japanese and Korean markets are down more than 1.5%, oil is still rocketing and US futures are soft. It's too early for the Chinese markets but the Xjo is down 23.

1.30 The loss quickly grew to 47 points but the index has recovered to 4863, down 37.

I got out of more Fmg Feb 675 puts at 25 but my other short positions are holding. Nearly everything is getting hit so even oil and gold stocks are underwhelming.

3.17 It's been pretty quiet for the last 3 hours with the index sitting at 4860, down 40. Qan and my two gold longs are down with the market and sucker play Boral is recovering so it's a breakeven sort of day for me despite a good result in Fmg and some progress in Lynas. I did buy back some Bld at 550.

The HSI is down 2% and the rest of Asia is a sea of red too. Even if there's a resolution overnight in Libya - which seems unlikely - the fear of contagion is going to linger for a while

I'm not really sure what to make of the Asx 200 chart. I was assuming that the 4840 high from mid January would provide support but there's quite a lot of momentum in the selling and it's only 20 points away. It might be more likely that we get a continuation of the choppy, overlapping rally that we've had up to now. That scenario would give the index scope to fall back to 4760, 4780.

4.16 The Xjo index drifted down to close off 43. The golds recovered somewhat and helped me back into the black for the day. It's not sheep stations but it's quite nice to make a few bob on a couple of weak days, encourages me to think that it's worthwhile trying to pick the swings rather than adopting a buy and hold strategy.

Looking closer to home. Mon Feb 21

There's such a big gap opening up between the stockmarkets of the loose money and the tight money economies. The European and US indices continue to track well but Australian and Asian markets lag well behind. The local index is down 37 points after an hour and a quarter despite reasonable overnight leads again. The focus is on further Chinese tightening via increased reserve requirements and the large resource stocks fell sharply overnight in steady to firm markets despite the underlying commodities performing well, with only copper slipping.
My short position in Fortescue is going quite well early on, with the stock down 14 at 674. The future is bright for the company but a number of analysts reduced their valuations modestly on expansion risk. With Bhp down 2% and Rio down 1.5%, I think there's a chance of a fall to the bottom of the range around 640 over the next few days. Market participants are still digesting the result though so a rally is not out of the question and I need to keep a close watch.

I've bought back a couple more of the Pdn short at 502. It's been as low as 497 and is sitting around 500. I'm hoping that the bottom of the range fails to hold.

Aristocrat reports on Thursday and it has been recovering in the lead up to the numbers. I've just reinstated a small short at 304 and will try to add to that on the back foot. My stop is at around 320 and I think All can edge back towards the recent mid January highs before failing again. My real risk here is an unexpectedly good result from a perennial underperformer so I'll keep the position size moderate.

My feeling is that the US consumer may be spending a little more but behaviour is still restrained. Australia has had nothing like the impact from the GFC that the US has had and yet consumers here have had a big scare and savings rates have gone from 2 to 10%. That's in an economy with large, comprehensive, state mandated pools of superannuation money.

Having been late to get into the sector, I've been slow to recognise that the party is over (for the time being, at least) in the rare earth stocks. Lynas bounced quite well off support at 170 but I've put on a small short at 188 on a minor sell signal. It may well find support again at a higher low in which case it would look quite good, but Arafura has failed to hold and the bubble could be slowly deflating.

11.46 The Xjo is down 1% or 49 points, at 4888. There has been a small bounce off the recent low in the first serious attempt to rally today. Telstra is ex dividend which accounts for nearly 7 points.

12.55 Early indications are for the HSI to open down about 0.4% with the mainland markets flat. The Aussie market is rallying a little. Fortescue has stabilised at around 670 so I've sold a few of the puts at 11.

Gold is also moving higher which has been unusual lately. It has generally been moving up in the overnight sessions. Sbm has been weaker and I've added to my position at 203.

1.26 The HSI is down just 0.2% and that's helping the recovery. The loss has been cut to 33 points.

Arafura just came out of a brief trading suspension as they highlighted the continued strength in the price of rare earths. It has helped the stock back up to 123.5, down 2.5, after being as low as 117.5. It seems like transparent share price management which is not unreasonable in a stock which has to fund a large project, but I'm wondering how long the bounce will last. Lynas has followed it up to 190; I didn't short many at 188 and sold a couple more here.

2.22 Chinese PMI numbers showed that manufacturing has slowed for the 7th consecutive month. Hong Kong shares sank again on that news but they're hanging on for only a moderate loss. The HSI is in recovery after sharp losses following golden week and this resilience has continued into a new week.

Given that the tightening cycle is expected to carry on for some time, the PMI numbers are not positive for the Aussie market. But we might have been oversold this morning so the Xjo is picking up - down 30 now.

3.42 The gold price continues to be helped along by the domino (should that be backgammon?) effect in the Middle East. Most of the gold stocks are up, Sbm is an exception but has recently been one of the top performers. My other gold long is in Resolute and that has been a sleeper but looks as if it has managed to hold support. A break above 142 would be pretty positive.

4.18 The afternoon was a let down - Chinese markets did very little and the Aussie market responded by sinking into a mild trance. Down 37 at 4900 exactly; neat and tidy anyway.

I didn't do much in the afternoon. Shorted a couple more Lyc at 191 which is where they finished and a few more All at 307 (last 308). Bought back more Ozl at 167.5 and Pdn at 496. 

ANZ disappoints. Fri Feb 18

A first quarter trading update from Anz which was a smidgin below expectations has provided a catalyst for some weakness so that the market is down 10 points after 45 minutes despite another day of moderate gains in the US. Continued unrest in the middle East has propelled gold about 10 dollars higher although the gold stocks haven't rallied much.
The exception is Sbm which is up 6 at 208 and I sold a few more at 210. I've also re-shorted some Pdn at 514 as they've bounced back somewhat. I had a small short position in copper miner Equinox minerals which I bought back as it fell hard on the open to 653. It has continued to weaken and is stabilising around 645. I've sold and bought a few more to effectively improve my covering buy price. The reason I'm looking at Eqn is that it's heavily geared to the copper price and brokers are recommending it as an alternative to Ozl. When Ozl has the share consolidation it will be outside the dollar value of stocks that I generally look at so this has been an exercise in getting a feel for the new stock. A good start anyway. My impression here is that this is a tradeable retracement but there's a good chance the stock will find support near the January highs.

I've actually been more bearish about Ozl. Most brokers see it as fully valued and copper has had a great run. More to the point, the stock made a new high and failed to carry on. I was interested in shorting it around 177 but it was about to go ex-dividend (4 cents per share) so I left it. Anyway, I could be chasing this but I'm short at 172 and encouraged by the weakness in Eqn which may be indicative of waning enthusiasm for copper stocks. My stop is a bit far away at 179 and I'm going to try to buy and sell intraday if I can see any opportunities to improve my average.

Otherwise, Fortescue has not yet reported and the stock is sitting at 689-690.

12.05 The Fmg result is out and the stock has done nothing much. I sold out the Feb 700 calls for 6. They'd traded at 10 shortly before the announcement but I waited for a surge and it didn't come so I'm out. Although the chart looks ok, my feeling after a quick scan of the result was that there wasn't a lot there to excite. If there's a sell off this afternoon, there could be a head and shoulders starting to form.

1.39 The HSI is up around 1% in early Hong Kong trading but it hasn't had much effect, maybe it's a small help because the Asx 200 is just down 3.

I haven't been able to do anything special in Ozl, I simply bought a few back at 171 because if I'm chasing the trade it's reasonable to leave room to short more on a failed rally.

4.10 Fortescue was put into a trading halt just after 3pm. The result is an appeal against the company, by regulator ASIC, being upheld. It won't open until Monday but I'm hoping the stock slips because I punted some near dated Feb 675 puts at 4. Further to my comment earlier, if the stock didn't respond bullishly to the result, there's the chance of a move back to the bottom of the trading range which is about 640. It would need to happen pretty quickly though, the options expire on Thursday. When the stock was suspended it had eased back to 688.

Otherwise, it was a flat day, with the index falling 2 points.

Once more unto the breach. Thu Feb 17

There was a positive lead overnight but the market wavered for a while at the recent high. It pushed through at the second attempt and after 90 minutes the Asx 200 is up 13 at 4943.
My trade for the day was Qantas. I bought at 244 on the open. The result was as expected but it highlighted how cheap the stock is and since 7 out of 8 brokers in the FnArena database have a buy on the stock (and the neutral target is still 278), there are enough reasons for fundamental investors to get long.
I was tempted to buy over the last couple of days because I thought it could make a higher low and, if not, my stop would be tight. But the stock has been in a long downtrend so I wanted to wait for some confirmation. Anyway, it has performed well so far, pushing up to 250.

Otherwise the gold longs are firm, especially Sbm, which is up 4.5 at 199 and Fmg is pushing the top of the envelope at 690. It reports tomorrow so if it doesn't push through this afternoon I might sell the physical and just leave the options as an upside kicker. Here's the daily.

12.15 The market couldn't sustain the rally and it's back below recent resistance at 4934.

Paladin has slipped further and I bought back a couple at 513. I'm looking for a quick move to the support level around 500.

1.25 Out of my Fortescue long at 686 and 685 as the stock can't sustain the high.

4.01 The market has chopped around all afternoon in a narrow range and the easy run up to 5000 hasn't eventuated over the last few days. Asian economies are facing a rate tightening environment so in our time zone there hasn't been a lot of enthusiasm to sweep us along.
Sbm got as high as 204 today and looks like it will match at 201 which is up 7.5. I sold a couple of small lines at an average of around 201 but kept most of my position.
Paladin is closing on its lows. I'm trying to buy a couple more on the match at 507 but again, I'm holding on to most of the short.

4.13 The match has come and gone and left the index up 8, at 4938.
I paid 508 for the Pdn in the end. A good day though, with decent moves in Qan, Sbm and Pdn.

Bubbling. Wed Feb 16

It's 10.36 am and the market has just bubbled up 2 points into the black after trying to sell off early. The overnight lead was mildly negative and Bhp was initially a sell on fact after reporting a very solid result. Actually, it's still down 1.2% but well off the lows.
Gold was up by about USD 10 last night and the gold stocks are moving. St Barbara is my best performer, up 5.5 at 195 and with a bullish shape about it now.

I bought back the last of my short in Ipl at 451 as it opened weaker. Boral is a different problem and through my stop again. I haven't done anything yet.

Paladin reported yesterday and I had approval to short it but it strengthened and I wasn't willing to risk the trade in a volatile stock. Analysts are generally negative to neutral on the result and the stock opened weaker. I'm short at a little better than the opening high of 530 after selling and buying a few. There are 3 recent highs to act as resistance and my stop would be in the low 550s.

One of the stories around my trading over the last month has been losing patience just before a decent move. It often occurs when I've been hasty with my entry so that the timing gets out of whack. Anyway, Ost is another one for the list.

11.53 I'm off to lunch with a broker for the first time in a while and I hope to come back to find the market lower. Apart from my gold longs which are not particularly correlated to the market, I'm long Fmg and short Bld, Pdn and a couple of other short term things. After making a series of higher highs - albeit by a fraction of a point yesterday - the Asx 200 made a lower peak at around 11ish. Obviously nothing is confirmed yet but there's a chance of a leg down this afternoon. Here's the Xjo chart, 30 minute scale.

2.49 Back on deck and it's neither here nor there. The index made a minor new low relative to this morning and then reversed to make a new high compared to yesterday but in both cases by less than a point. It leaves us up 4 points.

4.15 Down less than a point by the close, at 4930. Asian markets are generally firm as are US overnight futures so that mitigated against any sustained weakness. Most of my positions are ok except the dumb one in Boral where I bought a few back towards the close.

Focus, focus, focus. Tue Feb 15

It was a good night for commodities as Chinese import growth remains strong and that helped US indices to a steady close. The Aussie market is down a few points after an hour and my focus is on, just that, reducing the number of trades I'm in.
So, out of small longs in Aru at 134.5 and Kar at 766 which made small profits but didn't take off. I'm looking to buy back some of my short in Ipl today. I put it on at 465, 466 and have traded in and out for a few dollars my way. It was just an attempt to fade an overbought trade and not really my type of thing but it looks as if yesterday's high was a short time peak, the stock having just slipped below yesterday's low.

Also in the "don't do this at home kids" file is my other attempt to fade an overbought stock in Boral. These trades are tough because there's no easy stop. I was using 20 cents and was lazy with that since my initial short was at 525 and I added a few at 537. I'm just hoping to get out for close to square now. The stock is reversing, at least, as the market has now lost 13 points. The minimum to do these trades should be a break of the previous day's low. If I'm lucky that will happen today at 531.

11.38 Fortescue has held well and is unchanged at 687. It reports on Friday, and is my key position. My other two longs are in gold stocks, Resolute and St Barbara. They're both still retracing.

1.50 Chinese CPI came in at 4.9% but since food is now excluded the picture is unclear. Reaction has been muted and the market is stuck in a small intraday range.

3.01 Spot gold is higher by a couple of dollars and my two gold stocks have ticked into the black for the day after early weakness. I had a look at the biggest gold stock, Newcrest, and that has a reasonably bullish chart in the short term. I'm hoping it's indicative of the sector.

4.15 The Asx 200 closed down 5 at 4931. Fmg was up 3 at 690 and I sold a few out at 689 as the options have some delta here which means my long position is much the same. Bld closed flat at 540 and Ipl was down 4 at 460. I'm only short a few Ipl now but didn't buy much Bld back, just a couple at 536.

It was a quiet day with no moves greater than 1.1% in any of the top 20 stocks.

I heart equities. Mon Feb 14

It's a lovefest for equities on Valentine's day. The market has sped out of the blocks following the subdued performance last Friday when worried investors looked at the troubles in Egypt. Mubarak's resignation came through late in the US trading session and helped their indices to reach respectable gains. Oil and gold were the safe havens and they sold off, although not very much in the case of gold, while base metals were positive.
Cba is ex dividend and that knocks 7 points off the Asx 200 but the rise is 36 points after 40 minutes. My book is mixed with longs and shorts cancelling out although I had a small win in Awe when it was sold down from 187.5 to 177 on the open and I fluked a buy at 175. Just tipped them out at 185. There was no news to indicate any serious problem and this seller often appears on the open, only for the stock to be soaked up at the previous closing price. For some reason the buyers missed the open.
I'm out of Awc at 253. Not because I'm bearish, simply because the stock was marked up at the open and seemed to run into plenty of selling. It wasn't a big position, but a handy enough profit, and I didn't want to be stuck during a consolidation.

Obviously, the chart for Awc looks perfectly fine and my willingness to sell reflects the caution I'm feeling about the market. The local market looks fine but the European and US indices are starting to look very complete on both daily and intraday charts. Tops can be slow to form and these indices can definitely continue to edge up but the risk/reward equation seems poor.

12.16 The banks are still hogging the action. Here's Anz - and the other charts are similar.

2.16 It's strange to feel so uninvolved when I've been expecting the market to run for some time. Because the rally is being driven by the larger stocks, the moves in my watchlist are moderate given that I've chosen shares which are quite volatile. Reporting period has also meant that I've tended to take a cautious view. All in all, I'm left with a vaguely dissatisfied feeling despite having made a little money this month.

I'm also most enthusiastic about the gold stocks and they've had a minor pullback over the last few days as the Egyptian situation has calmed down.

3.27 I've been resisting the lure of going long Fortescue for the last couple of days because I still have some Feb 700 calls. I've succumbed now and bought at 683 because the chart is reminding me of the Lnc chart last week. Here's the daily for Fmg and for Lnc.

 Lnc...

4.14 The market held on to the gains and finished above last Wednesday's intraday high at 4936, a rise of 55 points.

 

On the precipice. Fri Feb 11

After the US close and before the Aussie market opened, Mubarak reiterated his intention to stay until the September elections which didn't please the protesters. The Egyptian unrest was largely ignored by a US market which closed basically unchanged but the overnight S&P futures are a touch weaker and the Asx 200 is responding similarly with a drop of 0.3%.
I'm assuming that gold and oil may strengthen overnight but it's a tough call because there's also the potential for the situation to be resolved over the weekend too.
I've added to my short position in Ipl this morning, at 466, as the stock doesn't have much follow through after the big buying yesterday.
Boral has a volatile expanding pattern and I'm trying to pick a top - dangerous, obviously - by shorting at 525. Analyst response to the result was mixed and I'm looking at a 60 minute chart which could have completed 5 waves up.
Here's the 60, then the daily.

Daily for Bld...

11.47 The index is holding, having only posted a 10 point loss. Awc is looking decent now after taking a couple of days to digest the result.

I sold out my last Lnc shares at 289. They look as if they will push higher but I had very few left and I wanted to slim the book. I'll look for a retracement for another opportunity.

I'm out of Lynas at 191 for much the same reason and would also look to buy back on a dip.

12.37 The selling is gathering some momentum and the Asx 200 is down 20. I've bought back a couple of Ipl at 457 and added a few more Sbm at 190.5. Gold is not responding to Mubarak's failure to resign and is up just USD 1 but I'm still quite confident about the sector.

2.19 Support held and the loss is 12 points. US and European indices look slightly positive on intraday charts and so does the Xjo now. Some overnight strength might see the index push above Wednesday's early high of 4930 when trding resumes on Monday. But for this afternoon, it's likely to be aimless chop. Here's a 30 minute chart.

3.35 Boral has had another leg up to 535 but I'm sticking to my short for now, as much on time as anything. If there's serious buying at these levels on Monday or Tuesday, rather than short covering, then I'll stop out. I missed out on getting a buy order filled at 518 earlier as it slipped to 519 before recovering.

I'm out of my long in Ost at 277 which is a 1.5 cent loss. I've had this for a couple of weeks after chasing an entry and glad to be out. The stock is in a trading range and although it looks mildly bullish with support at 270, it's a turnaround situation so not strongly positive or a great entry.

I'd consider buying in the high 250s or low 260s on another leg down as there would be a clean swing low at 253 as support.

4.10 The index closed down 31, below the intraday support, so some short term weakness is due. Daily looks ok though.

Bld eased back to 530 and Awc held 250. A very moderate week but mildly profitable, at least.