Monday, February 28, 2011

Chin up. Mon Feb 28

It looks like we pre-empted the European and US bounce on Friday and as civil unrest continues in N. Africa and the Middle East, the index has slipped back 15 points towards the end of the first hour. It's all a bit gloomy after some early cheer.
I got out of half of my Lynas at 198.5 as they rose a further 4% following Friday's afternoon run. They're looking pretty good now and I'll be looking to buy dips.













Copper bounced 3% on Friday and US copper stocks were firmer but Ozl is continuing to edge down. Gold should be a beneficiary but the gold stocks are mixed. However, spot gold is maintaining a steep uptrend and now that Sbm has stabilised, I like the prospect of another leg up.
Here's spot gold on a daily chart.














And Sbm's daily. The chart has a nice, reverse head and shoulders look about it which would imply some acceleration to the rise as it moves away from the turning point.

11.46 Resolute has tended to run its own race rather than follow the gold price too closed so I'm focussing on another gold stock, Regis, which has fairly recently found its way into the Asx 200. Long a few today at 205 with a stop around 196. I'm anticipating that a slow, shallow correction from 221 to 200 is now complete.

I've also bought some Ipl at 436. I had a minor win with a short position here recently and I suspect that this is a retracement rally. However, the uptrend is intact and it's not impossible that the stock can bounce back to new highs. It's a play on food inflation because it produces fertilisers.
12.19 Talking of inflation, the Chinese are keen to jawbone their economic growth down. They've announced a growth target of 7% annually over the next 5 years which compares with their previous target of 7.5%. It may be aspirational since the 7.5% was comfortably exceeded in recent years but it doesn't help sentiment here.

12.58 I was quite impressed with the Linc news which came out on Friday but it seems as if the broker community is not following the stock so closely any more. I sold out Friday's extra stock at 281 and Lnc is now trading down 5 at 274. I'm still long the initial tranche, bought at 265.
Chairman Peter Bond, like a Twiggy Forrest mini-me, is working the media. The company has just announced that Bond is driving on Linc produced synthetic diesel from Chinchilla in Queensland to Perth. A documentary crew is coming along.

1.16 Amusingly, Lnc is back up 1 at 280. All power to the publicity stunt.

2.18 Chinese markets are lower but pretty much in step with everywhere else, so the 7% target doesn't seem to be having an effect. The Xjo is down 13 with few highlights in my list.

3.27 Last trading day of the month and the Asx system is down which may cause problems for a few funds. I've been having a lie down.

4.11 More waiting around as the Asx is hoping to get some sort of late trading happening by 5 pm. The Topix and HSI are comfortably up now and US overnight futures have recovered half of their earlier losses.

5 pm No further trade and a long night ahead for the techies at the Asx.

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