Tuesday, February 1, 2011

I ate already. Tue Feb 1

There was a decent rebound in the US last night with oil and base metals among the leaders. The local reaction, at 10.30 am, is muted because we're still running about half a session ahead of the rest of the world in some kind of psychic trance and our bounce back came along around lunch time yesterday.
There are a few stocks on my list that I wouldn't mind shorting - Bld, Cgf and Ozl spring to mind - but they're too far away from my stop levels so it's another day where the buying opportunities are presenting.
The first is Lynas which has a similar set up to yesterday's long in Aru. I'm not convinced that the correction is over but I do think that there's a good chance that the bull run has further to go. The risk/reward is reasonable with a stop at around 165 but a lot of upside in a volatile stock. Long at 180.5 for about half of my usual amount.
The second trade is a long in Fmg at 643, with a stop at 633. I'm looking for a quick bounce from an oversold position so this may turn out to be a day trade. I traded one of these in Paladin yesterday and made a few dollars but regret not holding overnight. Here's the Fmg chart which doesn't look particularly special except for the fact that the price has moved above yesterday's high after the second sharp fall and it's close to the bottom of a trading range.
Here's the Pdn chart to illustrate the sort of thing I'm looking for.
1.33 Hong Kong has opened mildly stronger while Japanese and Korean indices are firmed too. The Xjo has been chopping around in a tight range all day with a positive skew. We're up 9 now.
I've had a few winners and one loser. Aristocrat is down 8 at 289 and I bought back some stock at 294 and 290. I sold a few Aru as they rose to 133 and a handful of Lyc at 185.5. Awe is more problematic and has slipped 5 to 173. My take on this chart now is that there could be another corrective leg down so that while I'm bullish in the medium term, it may be wise to stop out in the short term and see how far the stock slides. I'd guesstimate that the mid 160s would hold it. For the moment, I'm watching it, having sold stock yesterday at 180 and 178.


 2.39 And no rate rise. As expected, I assume.

4.13 Without big rises in Asia to help us along, the Asx 200 dipped lower to close down 2 points.
I sold a few extra Lyc at 188.5 and Aru at 132.5 and stopped out of some of the Awe at 172.

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