Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Left a bit, right a bit... Wed Feb 23

The US indices caught up to the rest of the world after their holiday and the Aussie SPI market overreacted during the night trading. The index opened below the 4840 swing high from mid January and hit an early low of 4831 which was down about 25. It was a buy on open market though and the loss has been trimmed to 8 points.
I bought back some of my short position in All at 303 and all of Fmg at 645 (or 30 for the last puts), Lynas at 182 and Ozl at 164.5. I was too greedy in Bld and missed some early sales around 550.
The golds were hit early and although they're still lower, they've recovered the worst. Added to the Rsg and Sbm positions on the dip then decided to sell out the extra stock.
That was all fine then and I've also put on a couple of new long positions in Linc energy and One Steel.
I bought the Lnc at 265 average as they've retraced all the way to a breakout level. There could be some overlap so I won't have a supertight stop, perhaps around 250. The high may have been made in this stock but if not, there's the possibility that we've seen a sharp wave 4 retracement with a top above 305 to come.
One Steel was sold off on the basis of a poor Bsl result in a weak market. It got back to the top of the previous range and I picked up stock at 281. Stop is at 270 and it's another one where a new high might come fairly soon.

11.42 Qantas is down 4 at 242 and it's one for the "what was I thinking?" file as I was surprised that it was holding up in early trading yesterday given the surge in oil prices. The stock probably has limited downside, barring an oil price explosion, but it had already lost momentum and I could easily have sold to buy back. Oh well.
1.50 Asian indices are flat to slightly down and the Asx 200 is mirroring that with a drop of 9 points and a tight range after the initial bounce. US overnight futures are mildly higher.
The intraday chart for the Xjo is setting up for an afternoon rally with a potential higher low but needs to push through the earlier highs to confirm.
2.51 Aristocrat is squeezing up as we await tomorrow's report. I re-shorted some stock at 309 and 313. It's not a big position and could be short term volatile in the morning so I won't be too reactive.

 3.37 The market had a second attempt to rally but faded again as Asian markets retreated. We're down 13 points now. My book is ok because the golds have mostly recovered and new positions, Lnc and Ost, are doing pretty well. It's just as well because my two shorts in All and Bld are outperforming on the upside.

4.11 We'll have to wait for tomorrow. I'm leaning towards a bounce and I've placed my bets accordingly.













There's a good chance that the US indices can fall further because they've been running for a while so, in that case, I'll be looking for another buy-on-open situation.

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