Friday, February 18, 2011

ANZ disappoints. Fri Feb 18

A first quarter trading update from Anz which was a smidgin below expectations has provided a catalyst for some weakness so that the market is down 10 points after 45 minutes despite another day of moderate gains in the US. Continued unrest in the middle East has propelled gold about 10 dollars higher although the gold stocks haven't rallied much.
The exception is Sbm which is up 6 at 208 and I sold a few more at 210. I've also re-shorted some Pdn at 514 as they've bounced back somewhat. I had a small short position in copper miner Equinox minerals which I bought back as it fell hard on the open to 653. It has continued to weaken and is stabilising around 645. I've sold and bought a few more to effectively improve my covering buy price. The reason I'm looking at Eqn is that it's heavily geared to the copper price and brokers are recommending it as an alternative to Ozl. When Ozl has the share consolidation it will be outside the dollar value of stocks that I generally look at so this has been an exercise in getting a feel for the new stock. A good start anyway. My impression here is that this is a tradeable retracement but there's a good chance the stock will find support near the January highs.















I've actually been more bearish about Ozl. Most brokers see it as fully valued and copper has had a great run. More to the point, the stock made a new high and failed to carry on. I was interested in shorting it around 177 but it was about to go ex-dividend (4 cents per share) so I left it. Anyway, I could be chasing this but I'm short at 172 and encouraged by the weakness in Eqn which may be indicative of waning enthusiasm for copper stocks. My stop is a bit far away at 179 and I'm going to try to buy and sell intraday if I can see any opportunities to improve my average.















Otherwise, Fortescue has not yet reported and the stock is sitting at 689-690.

12.05 The Fmg result is out and the stock has done nothing much. I sold out the Feb 700 calls for 6. They'd traded at 10 shortly before the announcement but I waited for a surge and it didn't come so I'm out. Although the chart looks ok, my feeling after a quick scan of the result was that there wasn't a lot there to excite. If there's a sell off this afternoon, there could be a head and shoulders starting to form.
1.39 The HSI is up around 1% in early Hong Kong trading but it hasn't had much effect, maybe it's a small help because the Asx 200 is just down 3.
I haven't been able to do anything special in Ozl, I simply bought a few back at 171 because if I'm chasing the trade it's reasonable to leave room to short more on a failed rally.

4.10 Fortescue was put into a trading halt just after 3pm. The result is an appeal against the company, by regulator ASIC, being upheld. It won't open until Monday but I'm hoping the stock slips because I punted some near dated Feb 675 puts at 4. Further to my comment earlier, if the stock didn't respond bullishly to the result, there's the chance of a move back to the bottom of the trading range which is about 640. It would need to happen pretty quickly though, the options expire on Thursday. When the stock was suspended it had eased back to 688.
Otherwise, it was a flat day, with the index falling 2 points.

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