Friday, February 11, 2011

On the precipice. Fri Feb 11

After the US close and before the Aussie market opened, Mubarak reiterated his intention to stay until the September elections which didn't please the protesters. The Egyptian unrest was largely ignored by a US market which closed basically unchanged but the overnight S&P futures are a touch weaker and the Asx 200 is responding similarly with a drop of 0.3%.
I'm assuming that gold and oil may strengthen overnight but it's a tough call because there's also the potential for the situation to be resolved over the weekend too.
I've added to my short position in Ipl this morning, at 466, as the stock doesn't have much follow through after the big buying yesterday.
Boral has a volatile expanding pattern and I'm trying to pick a top - dangerous, obviously - by shorting at 525. Analyst response to the result was mixed and I'm looking at a 60 minute chart which could have completed 5 waves up.
Here's the 60, then the daily.













Daily for Bld...

11.47 The index is holding, having only posted a 10 point loss. Awc is looking decent now after taking a couple of days to digest the result.

I sold out my last Lnc shares at 289. They look as if they will push higher but I had very few left and I wanted to slim the book. I'll look for a retracement for another opportunity.
I'm out of Lynas at 191 for much the same reason and would also look to buy back on a dip.

12.37 The selling is gathering some momentum and the Asx 200 is down 20. I've bought back a couple of Ipl at 457 and added a few more Sbm at 190.5. Gold is not responding to Mubarak's failure to resign and is up just USD 1 but I'm still quite confident about the sector.

2.19 Support held and the loss is 12 points. US and European indices look slightly positive on intraday charts and so does the Xjo now. Some overnight strength might see the index push above Wednesday's early high of 4930 when trding resumes on Monday. But for this afternoon, it's likely to be aimless chop. Here's a 30 minute chart.

3.35 Boral has had another leg up to 535 but I'm sticking to my short for now, as much on time as anything. If there's serious buying at these levels on Monday or Tuesday, rather than short covering, then I'll stop out. I missed out on getting a buy order filled at 518 earlier as it slipped to 519 before recovering.
I'm out of my long in Ost at 277 which is a 1.5 cent loss. I've had this for a couple of weeks after chasing an entry and glad to be out. The stock is in a trading range and although it looks mildly bullish with support at 270, it's a turnaround situation so not strongly positive or a great entry.
I'd consider buying in the high 250s or low 260s on another leg down as there would be a clean swing low at 253 as support.

4.10 The index closed down 31, below the intraday support, so some short term weakness is due. Daily looks ok though.
Bld eased back to 530 and Awc held 250. A very moderate week but mildly profitable, at least.

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