Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Focus, focus, focus. Tue Feb 15

It was a good night for commodities as Chinese import growth remains strong and that helped US indices to a steady close. The Aussie market is down a few points after an hour and my focus is on, just that, reducing the number of trades I'm in.
So, out of small longs in Aru at 134.5 and Kar at 766 which made small profits but didn't take off. I'm looking to buy back some of my short in Ipl today. I put it on at 465, 466 and have traded in and out for a few dollars my way. It was just an attempt to fade an overbought trade and not really my type of thing but it looks as if yesterday's high was a short time peak, the stock having just slipped below yesterday's low.














Also in the "don't do this at home kids" file is my other attempt to fade an overbought stock in Boral. These trades are tough because there's no easy stop. I was using 20 cents and was lazy with that since my initial short was at 525 and I added a few at 537. I'm just hoping to get out for close to square now. The stock is reversing, at least, as the market has now lost 13 points. The minimum to do these trades should be a break of the previous day's low. If I'm lucky that will happen today at 531.

11.38 Fortescue has held well and is unchanged at 687. It reports on Friday, and is my key position. My other two longs are in gold stocks, Resolute and St Barbara. They're both still retracing.

1.50 Chinese CPI came in at 4.9% but since food is now excluded the picture is unclear. Reaction has been muted and the market is stuck in a small intraday range.

3.01 Spot gold is higher by a couple of dollars and my two gold stocks have ticked into the black for the day after early weakness. I had a look at the biggest gold stock, Newcrest, and that has a reasonably bullish chart in the short term. I'm hoping it's indicative of the sector.
4.15 The Asx 200 closed down 5 at 4931. Fmg was up 3 at 690 and I sold a few out at 689 as the options have some delta here which means my long position is much the same. Bld closed flat at 540 and Ipl was down 4 at 460. I'm only short a few Ipl now but didn't buy much Bld back, just a couple at 536.
It was a quiet day with no moves greater than 1.1% in any of the top 20 stocks.

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