Thursday, February 17, 2011

Once more unto the breach. Thu Feb 17

There was a positive lead overnight but the market wavered for a while at the recent high. It pushed through at the second attempt and after 90 minutes the Asx 200 is up 13 at 4943.
My trade for the day was Qantas. I bought at 244 on the open. The result was as expected but it highlighted how cheap the stock is and since 7 out of 8 brokers in the FnArena database have a buy on the stock (and the neutral target is still 278), there are enough reasons for fundamental investors to get long.
I was tempted to buy over the last couple of days because I thought it could make a higher low and, if not, my stop would be tight. But the stock has been in a long downtrend so I wanted to wait for some confirmation. Anyway, it has performed well so far, pushing up to 250.
Otherwise the gold longs are firm, especially Sbm, which is up 4.5 at 199 and Fmg is pushing the top of the envelope at 690. It reports tomorrow so if it doesn't push through this afternoon I might sell the physical and just leave the options as an upside kicker. Here's the daily.

12.15 The market couldn't sustain the rally and it's back below recent resistance at 4934.
Paladin has slipped further and I bought back a couple at 513. I'm looking for a quick move to the support level around 500.


1.25 Out of my Fortescue long at 686 and 685 as the stock can't sustain the high.

4.01 The market has chopped around all afternoon in a narrow range and the easy run up to 5000 hasn't eventuated over the last few days. Asian economies are facing a rate tightening environment so in our time zone there hasn't been a lot of enthusiasm to sweep us along.
Sbm got as high as 204 today and looks like it will match at 201 which is up 7.5. I sold a couple of small lines at an average of around 201 but kept most of my position.
Paladin is closing on its lows. I'm trying to buy a couple more on the match at 507 but again, I'm holding on to most of the short.

4.13 The match has come and gone and left the index up 8, at 4938.
I paid 508 for the Pdn in the end. A good day though, with decent moves in Qan, Sbm and Pdn.

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