Hairy moments. Thu Feb 24

I had a stark reminder of the perils of reporting season as Aristocrat reported a result in range but with the hint of an improved outlook. That was enough for it to charge up as high as 340. I waited for it to settle and it's back at 323. I have to admit that the chart looked very promising last night and I was too rigid in sticking to my plan. Could easily have taken off the position and waited for the result. Anyway, I shorted a few more at 334 and bought them back at 329. Since then I've nibbled at a couple of the short position at 323. I'm hoping for a big reversal but if it stabilises will just stop out.
On the numbers, the stock is still expensive and building in a recovery. The company seems to be talking up some quite small green shoots.

Otherwise, my scenario for today was wrong. I was expecting some follow through in the States which might leave us weaker on the open but thought buying could kick in again if there were no further developments of note in Libya and the region. I'm not sure that the situation has changed much and there's a growing possibility that Gadaffi will take the money and run but I woke up last night and watched some of the US session - a sure sign that I know I've got the wrong book. It was blanket coverage of the Gulf and plenty of speculation about potential trouble in Saudi Arabia so fear was definitely the driving force.

Some of that tension has carried over and the index is now down 38 after about 90 minutes. My positions are generally fine except for Qan which is 6 lower at 235. Since I missed the early stop there, I'm going to wait to see if a new low will succeed or fail. It looks like it will make one but could reverse sharpish if things quiet down in the oil market.

12.06 There's some bargain hunting kicking in which has helped the index to recover to a loss of 23. The Japanese are down abut 0.8% but the Kospi is a touch higher.

Lynas bounced quite well yesterday after opening at a low for the day of 180. I decided to put on a long on the basis that it could make a higher low - with 168ish my stop. The long is at 183.5 and the stock is a little firmer at 186.

Despite oil and gold rising overnight, my energy play in Linc and gold longs in Rsg and Sbm are unexciting today.

12.58 Early indications are for the HSI to open down about 0.2% so I'm hoping for some more of a recovery locally. Down 20 now.
Aristocrat is back at 319 and Boral has fallen 6 to 550 so the shorts are ok.
Qan has made a marginal new low, hitting 232, and may well go lower but I bought some March 325 calls at 13 since I think there's a strong possibility of a bullish reversal.

1.50 I stopped out of All at 322. It could still be a reversal day but you would expect to see more weakness by now and the stock is just consolidating above the recent highs.
The Japanese indices have recovered half of their losses while the HSI, Kospi and US overnight futures are stronger. The Asx 200 isn't playing though and we're down 0.5%.

3.15 It's fairly boring, not untypical for an options expiry day where major stocks get stuck at a strike price and the index grinds to a halt.
I'm concerned about the gold stocks I'm holding. They haven't responded to the strong run in the gold price. If gold has a breather they could react on the downside. Newcrest was a much more simple play on the gold price - next time I have a strong view, I might do better to look for some call options here.

4.14 The market faded away in the last hour to close down 37 points. The reasonably valid conclusion is that the situation is unlikely to resolve tonight and momentum is to the downside. A grim day for my positions, the only cut on the long side would be in Qan and I think that's worth paying to look for another day. The rest of them have just wound back recent gains.