Lunar New Year. Thu Feb 3

It's a new start for many and maybe Queensland can look forward to a better time ahead. The cyclone is working its way inland and gradually losing force. Thankfully, damage has been limited to property and crops.
The overnight lead was flat after protests in Egypt became more heated. After an hour and fifteen the market here is basically unchanged.
My book has become flabby once more and I'm concentrating on taking positions off.

11.20 Fortescue has lost momentum and it was a quick reversal trade so I'm out at 661.
Lynas is stabilising and is up a couple at 175 while Bsl is a slow mover but reasonably constructive. A push through 218 would confirm the buy signal that I've pre-empted.

On a 30 minute scale, the Asx 200 made a double top soon after the open at 4807 but the subsequent sell off looks to have stalled already and the index is pushing above 4800 again. If it can push through the early peak then we might get a run up to last week's high around 4825.

1.20 It's a quiet day with most Asian markets closed but the Xjo index has been as high as 4814, helped by a better than feared outcome from Cyclone Yasi.

My positions are mildly positive and I haven't added anything new. I did sell a few Aru at 136 (v 129.5) as they edge higher but haven't taken off, perhaps held back by the Lynas weakness yesterday.

1.51 Awe has continued the rebound so my delayed stop yesterday wasn't so clever. The false break and reversal is common at the moment, a reflection of a choppy market.

Strategically I'm pulling my head in and looking to buy support in uptrends and to sell conservatively. It's basically my normal strategy but it takes a certain amount of discipline to do it because it's counter to most people's instincts (including mine). I think I've been impetuous recently.

2.53 The market is up 27 and almost made it to 4825 (4824.7). It still looks ok so maybe we'll see another tilt at the recent high of 4837. My positions are unexciting and it's galling to see things that I stopped out of now running hard over the last day or two - Awc, Awe, Mmx. One of those things, I think, but as I wrote earlier, I'm conscious of entering trades at the right levels which means I'm on standby today.

4.08 My one decision of note to make was whether or not to buy Qantas. The stock is in a long downtrend but it's having a reversal day following an announcement of a rise in fuel surcharges. Given that this trade is the flavour of the week, I was tempted to buy but decided that the context was different. The reversals in Awc, Awe, Fmg and Pdn were all in stocks which have been in uptrends.

The market has closed with the Asx 200 at 4821.