Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Bubbling. Wed Feb 16

It's 10.36 am and the market has just bubbled up 2 points into the black after trying to sell off early. The overnight lead was mildly negative and Bhp was initially a sell on fact after reporting a very solid result. Actually, it's still down 1.2% but well off the lows.
Gold was up by about USD 10 last night and the gold stocks are moving. St Barbara is my best performer, up 5.5 at 195 and with a bullish shape about it now.
I bought back the last of my short in Ipl at 451 as it opened weaker. Boral is a different problem and through my stop again. I haven't done anything yet.
Paladin reported yesterday and I had approval to short it but it strengthened and I wasn't willing to risk the trade in a volatile stock. Analysts are generally negative to neutral on the result and the stock opened weaker. I'm short at a little better than the opening high of 530 after selling and buying a few. There are 3 recent highs to act as resistance and my stop would be in the low 550s.
One of the stories around my trading over the last month has been losing patience just before a decent move. It often occurs when I've been hasty with my entry so that the timing gets out of whack. Anyway, Ost is another one for the list.

11.53 I'm off to lunch with a broker for the first time in a while and I hope to come back to find the market lower. Apart from my gold longs which are not particularly correlated to the market, I'm long Fmg and short Bld, Pdn and a couple of other short term things. After making a series of higher highs - albeit by a fraction of a point yesterday - the Asx 200 made a lower peak at around 11ish. Obviously nothing is confirmed yet but there's a chance of a leg down this afternoon. Here's the Xjo chart, 30 minute scale.

2.49 Back on deck and it's neither here nor there. The index made a minor new low relative to this morning and then reversed to make a new high compared to yesterday but in both cases by less than a point. It leaves us up 4 points.

4.15 Down less than a point by the close, at 4930. Asian markets are generally firm as are US overnight futures so that mitigated against any sustained weakness. Most of my positions are ok except the dumb one in Boral where I bought a few back towards the close.

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