Look before you leap. Wed Mar 31

It's the end of the first quarter today and with very little in the way of direction from overnight trading, any market moves today are liable to be influenced by window dressing. It has been a meandering day which slipped from mildly positive to mildly negative after the release of building approvals and retail trade figures for February. Halfway through the trading day we're down 8 points.
I've put on a short trade in Alumina which is not a vintage trade but just about stacks up on a quiet day. The stock has had a lukewarm bounce over the last month and is just bouncing back from a minor sell off but remains short of recent highs. I've sold short at 173.5 because my stop is a cent or so above the recent 176.5 high and a modest pullback should take the stock down towards the low to mid 160s. Since, I think that there's conservatively a 50% chance of that happening but the risk reward equation is 2 to 1 in my favour then the trade passes muster.

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Linc. Tue Mar 30

Just a quick post today, I've been out for much of the afternoon.
On the theme of trying to get into moves as early as possible I've gone long some Linc Energy at 167. I've been on the bid all day at 162, which is my preferred entry, with no success so I've bought a third of my proposed position at a higher price. It's still at a level which is just a touch above a 50% retracement of the move which began in early March. I think 160 could hold a pullback and I expect a new high or else a test of the recent high so the risk reward is still ok.
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Fine Tuning. Mon Mar 29

It's often a trade off between certainty and profit potential. I've played around a lot with pre-empting signals and although it's given me a certain amount of grief, it has also been responsible for some great trades. I think, though, that I've often been too conservative with anticipating a trade and thus fallen between two stools. That is, I might have wanted to get long ahead of a breakout but I would still want to see good momentum before jumping on board. This has sometimes resulted in buying (or selling) only a few cents before confirmation which leaves me vulnerable to a failure.
So, I've been looking at my trade history with the idea of getting in either earlier - perhaps on a potential higher low with a tight stop - or later, after a move is confirmed but has retraced. It runs the risk of backfitting to get better results but it does look like a good approach to me and it has the advantage of taking uncertainty, and hence stress, out of trading. For example, if a potential trade has got away from me then using this approach I don't chase the entry. I either miss it or get in on a retracement.
I flicked through a few stocks and pretty much any of them could be used as an example, but I've plumped for Telstra.
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As an example, suppose I had been looking to short Telstra in mid December. I would have found it very hard to get on because it dropped rapidly over two days. However, it seems pretty common for these moves to retrace more than 61.8%, even to make double tops. My rule of thumb is to use two thirds of the first swing which in this case was 26 cents. That would have got me short at about 346 or 347 depending on rounding. In this case it didn't turn out to be an excellent trade but the good entry would have enabled some sort of profit.

The stop would be above the mid December high so the longer I can wait the better.

There's a much better example in early February where I might have got short at around 342 before a good swing down.

At the lows in early March, there wasn't really a 1-2-3 buy signal - there clearly would have been on 30 or 60 minute charts - but there were a few days where I might have anticipated a turning point and got in at 291 or 292 with a stop below the low of 288. It certainly looked like a turning point although these things can be dangerous. If I look back a few days earlier in late February there was another potential turning point which failed to hold.

The other pitfall with this approach is that you still need to pick the right direction. For example, that short position in early February could have been viewed as a potential long just a few days earlier when the January move seemed to have retraced. Having said that, my view at the time was bearish but I was waiting for confirmation and the day that occurred, February 11, was a fast moving gap day that I wasn't willing to chase.

Anticipation. Fri Mar 21

I've been weighing up the pros and cons of entering positions on a pullback at a preset level versus waiting for confirmation. It's as much to do with what I'm going to feel comfortable with as what is technically the best.
Anyway, this morning I decided that I would buy Lihir Gold if it traded around 300. The logic is that it is in an uptrend and the last leg ran from 288 to 323. Most pullbacks won't retrace much more than two thirds of the run up so that gave me a buy level of approximately 300. As it happened, I bought at 299 and luckily enough the stock has bounced straightaway and it now stands at 309.

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Obviously, if my assessment of the trend is wrong then I have to cut. My initial stop level was at 287.
The advantage is that if the uptrend continues then my entry level is generally going to be better than if I waited for confirmation.

A fine line. Thu Mar 25

Those of you who've seen the 80s mockumentary "This is Spinal Tap" will know that while it might be a close run thing between love and hate or pleasure and pain, it is definitely a fine line between clever and stupid.
In the course of writing this daily blog and also when I periodically go through my trades in detail, I've discovered that I quite regularly cross that line into stupid territory. In fact, I've sometimes crossed that line and set up home for weeks at a time.
For example, I've been working on my trading rules for some months now, trying to define what my set ups are, when I exit, how I execute my trades etc etc and I've realised that I'm quite haphazard. Given how long I've been trading, it's kind of scary although encouraging in some ways - there's plenty of room for improvement.
Part of the inspiration for going through my trades carefully has been the excellent blog electroniclocal which a friend put me onto. This is somebody who knows his method inside out and yet still feels he has an advantage as a discretionary rather than a mechanical trader. That last point is comforting for me, I don't want to lose the human, intuitive element from my trading.
I managed to drag myself away from the screen for half an hour or so and as I walked back through the city it occurred to me that my first 10 years or more of trading involved having to make very quick decisions and doing dozens, sometimes hundreds, of trades per day with negligible trading costs which meant that I could clean up messes fairly easily. Being a market maker, I was competing against other market makers whether on a trading floor or in a screen traded market, and since there is generally a spot of edge in the trades then speed becomes more accurate than fine tuning. By contrast, the type of trading I do nowadays often involves negative edge because I'll be paying across the price spread, as well as incurring higher costs.
I suspect this prior conditioning is a more generous explanation for why it has taken me so long to adjust my trading style but I'll certainly put my hand up to periodic bouts of silly trading.
I was going to admit to being lazy too but actually I've always worked hard at my trading, even if the work hasn't always been applied effectively. I feel like I'm on a very good track though as slowly but surely, I'm cutting out the errors from my trading and refining my approach.

Neither fish nor fowl. Wed Mar 24

The uptrend keeps grinding along with the market up 34 points as we approach 2 pm.
I've gone long Challenger today at 417. It's an unusual chart and it took me a while to decide that it's worth buying.
Here's the daily.
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It had a 3 wave rally off the early February lows which overlapped the last congestion before the final sell down and also support from December at around 400. This indicated to me that it had probably made a near term low. Subsequently, it has made a succession of higher lows and higher highs but in a narrowing band.

I was concerned that I might be buying the top of a slowly rising trend channel but I think it's more likely that the action over the last few weeks has been corrective and because the correction kept grinding up, then it's probably quite bullish.

Takes me back. Tue Mar 23

I've been out of the office for most of the afternoon and just scanning through the market I can see that Atlas Iron has bounced strongly with the market. I'm long some of these which I bought on the 10th of March as the stock broke strongly to the upside following good reviews of their strategic takeover bid for Aurox resources. The correction was sharp over the last week or so but today there's been the nice strong resumption of strength that you often see in a clearly trending stock. It reminds me of the last bull market where I used to hunt around for these sort of retracements.

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I'm hoping for a quick move to new highs and I'm targetting around 270.

The less said the better. Mon Mar 22

Despite getting a reasonable move today - 38 points down at 2.40pm - it has been very lacklustre.
The small amount of money I made on some intraday stock trading was eaten up by costs because the moves were small and didn't continue on. I did make a few points out of the Spi where the costs are lower but that has also failed to trend.
As for my overnight positions, I'm out of most things as the recent pattern of a slow grind up provides very few opportunities. I'm not so concerned though, in the past I would have been trying to make things happen which is usually costly as opposed to just waiting for opportunities to present themselves.
I'm tending to think that the rally could be over but there's no proof at the moment. Here's the Xjo daily chart.
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In a way that's fairly typical for a retracement rally, the first leg up was choppy and cautious since when there was a much more confident 3rd wave up followed by a run up to new (retracement) highs on slowing momentum.

In the USA, the indices have behaved in a similar fashion except that they rose to new highs. Nevertheless, Friday's modest 37 point drop in the DJIA was the biggest fall for a month and overnight futures are down as the healthcare reform package is passed by the House of Congress. The Hang Seng is down close to 2% today too so we're starting to look like there's room to fall further.

Best laid plans. Fri Mar 19

It's the quiet day which often follows the rollover of the Spi futures contract and with another mildly positive lead from the US, the Aussie market has tickled up 8 points at 1.09 pm. It's quadruple witching day in the US tonight which is, according to investopedia, "A day on which contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures (SSF) all expire".
My instinct is that this will provide a nice opportunity for the US market to gap down given that it has been grinding up and the Vix index of volatility in the US is below 17 which signals bullish complacency.
In response to that, I've been clearing the decks and selling out of a few of my overnight positions.
I haven't got much else to add except that the title of today's post refers to my plan to get out of my intraday positions by lunchtime. Everything is happening so slowly today that I'm still stuck with a couple.

Trial and error. Thu Mar 18

The morning trading in the Spi and a few of the larger cap stocks is continuing for me. So far, it's working, sometimes I want to keep going and maybe I should consider it occasionally but generally, stopping the intense 5 minute trading by lunchtime is a good move.
I'll highlight my Spi trading this morning. I thought it could be a tricky market because the March contract expired just at the open today but in fact it turned out to be a standard sort of morning. These trades and this chart are for the June contract.
There was some early chop and then a small buy signal formed so I went long one contract at 4893. It went my way for a few minutes but petered out, I stopped out fairly quickly at 4889.
I've noticed that pre-emptive trades work better than standard signals early on in the day so I could have cut and reversed at 4891 but didn't. Instead, I'd got a bit fixated on the long side and tried to pre-empt another leg up on the possibility of a higher low having been formed at 4883 at around 10.45am. So I went long one again at the break of the high of these pivot bars at a price of 4888. Once again there was no follow through and this time my cut cost me 5 points.
I almost repeated the mistake when 4882 held again just after 11am but I managed to restrain myself, step back and see what was in front of me. When this rally stalled at 4887, it was clear to me that a break of 4882 would be a genuinely strong selling opportunity. I duly got short two contracts at 4881, buying back one contract at 4875 on a first, conservative exit and then waiting for a 5th wave low to play out and buying back the second contract at 4869. This picked up 18 points all up.
The result was a gain of 9 points or $225 less $12 costs.
I'm trading a minimal size because I won't scale up until I convince myself that I'm consistently profitable in this time scale.
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I'm cutting out the silly mistakes I was making but today there were a couple. I already mentioned that I'm not too confident about traditional signals early on. The exception would be if the stock is going clearly in one direction but in this case the little buy signal was well within the range formed by the first 4 bars and therefore less significant.

The second trade was maybe not an error but certainly marginal. Because there was room to the top of the range, a modest leg up might have gained me a few points. The problem, with the benefit of hindsight, was that any momentum that there was, was strictly negative, ie the early rejection of the highs and then the failure of the first rally which I bought.

In the end though, I traded the clear break quite well and that covered the mistakes.

I toyed with the idea of buying the simple reversal at 4872. It seemed to me that there had been a clear 5 waves down in the leg which started at about 11.05 am from a high of 4890, so a standard sort of retracement might have been worth 8 or 10 points. I was conservative and left the trade alone because it was already 12.15pm but it obviously would have paid off.

I have been trading the Spi slightly better than this most days recently. However, the errors are generally quite educational - as long as I focus on them and see where I can improve.

Interestingly, the pattern lately is of an early peak followed by a minor trend down and then consolidation, sometimes with a late rally. I suppose it's characteristic of a grinding uptrend but it's amazing how many days follow a similar template when you look closely.

I'm concerned that I might build a pattern of trading that suits this market but is not appropriate in other circumstances. Thankfully, I'm also day trading (or morning trading) in Bhp, Cba, Mqg, Ncm and Wpl so although they often just mimic the Spi, there is more variability and they will just do their own thing at other times.

More straightforward. Wed Mar 17

After agonising about Fmg over the last few days, I found a much simpler trade which I entered on the close yesterday at 306. Lihir Gold had a 40 cent bounce from its late February lows, congested for a couple of days and then continued on. After 7 days in a narrow range, yesterday's close took it well clear and having only had the one leg up so far, it seems to me that I can be patient with this one. There was a better entry at last Friday's close but I was lucky enough to have missed that by a couple of days without losing out particularly.

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It's a similar story today in Alumina. I've bought some at 172 and I'd like to see it close above that level for a clean breakout.

Awc has closed at 174 so the breakout is confirmed. My average cost is 172.25.

He doth protest too much. Tue Mar 16

I went through a bunch of charts last night and I wondered what I was smoking when I was trying to justify holding on to my Fortescue long. I still like it in the medium term, say as a 4 to 6 week investment, but in the time frame I trade it's no longer anything like as compelling a trade.
I needed to see some real acceleration and instead I got a series of fractional new highs over 3 trading days followed by a fast sell off.
Here's the 60 minute chart.

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The new high and failure to follow through is something I've been shorting recently on 5 minute charts and there's generally at least one more leg down.

Anyway, I metaphorically slapped myself round the face last night and hoped for some sort of retracement rally that I might be able to sell into. I was lucky enough to get it so I'm out of the last of the Fortescue at 486. No harm done in the end, except the opportunity to sell out yesterday in the mid 490s. The net result was break even and I'm obviously still looking for a buying opportunity in this stock which I hope will come at a lower level.

The old chestnut. Mon Mar 15

After 5 days in a very tight range today has seen some mild opening strength evaporate to leave the Xjo index 34 points lower at 3.30 pm. It's interesting because it's actually the sort of pattern that I've been shorting on an intraday scale with a little success. There were a couple of set ups which I shorted earlier today on 5 minute signals but I'm reluctant to short something like this on a daily scale since it still looks like there'll be another high after a minor correction.
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I haven't got much on in terms of overnight positions but I do still have my Fortescue long which has dropped 14 cents to 480 at this point. I sold a few on Thursday at 492 and more this morning at 496 but still have two thirds of my original position. It's challenging me here though on the classic fear v greed equation.
I really like the chart, I like the fact that the strong support at 440 held very well when the overall market fell in January. I suppose you could say it fell a characteristic 20% while the market fell 10% but most of that gain came from a sudden spike in early January which you would have expected to retrace at the best of times. However, I'm long at 488 and bullish but do I really want to have a stop all the way down at 440? Actually, my initial stop was at 455 but even that is a fair way from here.
This quandary has arisen because the acceleration I was hoping for hasn't eventuated and now I'm wondering whether we're going to have a leisurely c wave retracement towards support.
Now that I'm looking closer at this, it's pretty obvious that my stop should be moved to just below the last swing low at 473. If it fails to hold that then there should be further weakness.

I do have the luxury of playing it by ear with stops because I sit in front of the screen all day. If I was doing something else as well I would have left a stop, either automatically or with a broker once I was in the position.

The advantage of this is that I don't get caught out in thin whippy moves where some of the automated stops get set off, often deliberately, the disadvantage is that when it's not a thin move and I get close to stopping out my tendency is "to give it a little more room" - which rarely works.

Whatever works. Fri Mar 12

Having done a sort of strategic review of my business after reading Van Tharp's book again the other week, I decided that it would be good to leverage my time by trading intraday (see Tuesday's post).
Since then I've been working away at my intraday trading and this week I began limiting it to the period from the open until lunchtime so that I'm out of all intraday positions by about 12.30 to 1pm if at all possible. This has been working quite well in some respects. It's only a short period and I've already noticed that I'm more patient with my overnight trading positions because I'm not trying to will something to happen, but this week has been unprofitable with respect to the intraday stuff.
My initial approach, which worked reasonably well, was to look for clear breaks, keep wide stops and run the positions for as long as possible. However, this then required me to trade the 5 minute time frame all day which was counterproductive elsewhere and also got quite intense as you need to concentrate closely for a long period.
This week I'd been trying to modify this approach for the shorter time period and found, unsurprisingly really, that the days when you can stay long or short all day pay for a lot of choppy losses so that when you reduce the holding period the returns reduce. It has also been a choppy, tight ranging week.
Every evening I've been going over my day trades and diarising where they went right or wrong as well as what I could have done differently.
One thing I've noticed is that on this scale it's possible that reversal trades are more effective than trend breaks. Again, this is not me reinventing the wheel, floor traders have done this for decades ie fading momentum.
Bhp is a case in point this morning. There was a choppy opening and then the stock started started to rise and pushed through the opening high and the previous close. I considered buying since there'd been a small pause before the range break and I thought that could act as support. In the end, I left the trade alone because the set up was too loose and the only sensible support was going to be 20 cents away at 4280. Shortly after this the move peaked and congested for a few bars. I seriously considered going short at this point as I would have a tight stop (just above the top of the range) but chose to observe this sort of trade. It turned out well and it would have been a fairly simple short for a quick 20 cent down move to support where there was another congestion. My costs for the round trip are about 3 cents a share which was another reason I didn't take the trade, I thought it quite possible that if the pullback eventuated, it might stop around 4290 or 4295 and this would be too marginal.
It's not a bad example though and I've seen plenty of these patterns where the range is wider and you could more easily take the trade as the upside is better.
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Panic stations. Thu Mar 11

For the second day in a row the index collapsed after an announcement at 11.30 am. Today's jobs figures were mixed, slightly softer on the headline number but with underlying strength. It's a really strange reaction and with Chinese data out later there could be more jumping at shadows.
It's 12.07 pm and the market is retracing some of those recent losses. I'm beginning to expect an upside panic now.
Fortescue has been as high as 499 and I used a 60 minute buy signal to get long at 488 with the daily trigger following fairly soon after. So I did pre-empt the signal in a way, although I was using a solid enough intraday breakout ie it wasn't just a punt.
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Here's the 30 minute chart, I was watching for a breakout of the 486 level for the last couple of days.

Skinning the cat. Wed Mar 10

The strange and obscure adage says that there is more than one way to skin a cat. This seems to be the case with Fortescue at the moment.
Using the fundamental approach, there have been a couple of upgrades in the last few weeks based on higher iron ore price forecasts, including one yesterday from RBS Australia which has a target stock price of $6.41.
On the FnArena website today there is also an article from their technical analyst, techwizard, pointing out a bullish consolidating triangle after a breakout.
It's not the sort of approach, or at least descriptive language, that I normally use but I agree that the chart looks good.

The way I would describe it is that there was a powerful breakout in early January, a wave 3 surge, and a long choppy correction has held above the breakout level of 440 with some very minor overlap. The corrective pattern may have further to run but I'd certainly be interested at buying some stock on a break of 495. Once the stock gets moving then standard wave counts would give you a projected price in the range of 600 and the move could be reasonably quick although it's hard to imagine it being as rapid as the January move.
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The relative underperformance of the stock was starting to baffle me but yesterday 2% of Fortescue changed hands as a large shareholder, Leucadia, reduced their holding from 10 to 8%. I've no idea whether they're an ongoing seller and I'll just focus on my technical indicators but it provides a reason to not rush in and try to pre-empt a rally.

More strings to the bow. Tue Mar 9

Apart from this blog, I have a document which I find myself adding to every few months which is a diary/strategy document. Whenever I re-read this it becomes apparent that I've been a quandary over whether I should hold positions longer term or look to trade more aggressively intraday.
It's been a few years and I hadn't been able to reconcile the two approaches particularly well but in the last week I've realised that the best intraday opportunities usually occur in the first couple of hours of the day while it's often better to wait until later on for confirmation before entering new longer term trades.
So what I'm going to test is trading until 12.30 or 1pm intraday and focussing on the longer stuff for the rest of the afternoon. Obviously, the overnight positions need to be watched at all times and often the best time to close a position is early in the day, but allowing for those caveats I think this could be a workable way to maximise the time and capital I have available.
In fact, I'd noted more than once that I often do well with intraday trading in the morning but get exhausted and make errors later on. I'd also find that I would miss good overnight positions because I wasn't paying attention towards the close of trading.
I'll see how it goes but I'm quite optimistic. I can't believe it has taken me so long to work out that there could be a middle way. I was reading the electroniclocal blog the other day and he mentioned that he usually just trades in the morning and that helped the light bulb to come on.

Dumb luck. Mon Mar 8

I didn't get round to writing this earlier as I was doing some budgetting. I was in a reasonable mood for it though because I fluked a big win in Arrow Energy which I can only describe as dumb luck. I'd been thinking that I hadn't traded the rally so well and also after Friday's post regarding the outperformance of big caps, it occurred to me that there should start to be some catch up since the rally shows no sign of stalling.
Anyway, I got long on the closing match out at 348 on what was a marginal daily signal but a pretty good 60 minute one. If the daily signal was better I would have bought 20k rather than 10k but I'm still happy with a stock that surged to 511 on a takeover bid from Shell.

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Here's the 60 minute as it looked on Friday afternoon.

The other reason for buying was that I'd missed a pretty obvious opportunity in Awe which is also in the energy sector. Here's the daily.

I was a bit frustrated with that so keen not to miss out on the next opportunity.

I'm hopeful that there'll be some action now in the smaller resources.

It was good to stay long this and not just take the money straightaway. The stock rallied all day from a 479 open and as it's the first step in the negotiations it will often take a day or two before a stock under takeover finds a level. After that it's often a grind which might be best left to the big arbitrage players.

Commitment issues. Fri Mar 5

My energy is low at the moment and it's reflected in the limited blog posts daily. My aim is to put something up every trading day so that I stay in rhythm but today, struggling with a cold, and a grinding uptrend which I'm not capitalising on, there's not going to be much.
One thing I've noticed is that the rally is quite narrow and the outperformance is confined to a few stocks. My main overnight trading stocks are in the top 100 but outside the top 20 and they're tending to be quite mixed in a rising market where the intraday stocks, in the top 20 index, that I'm trading are running quite hard. A quick flick through the bank charts shows that Anz and Wbc in particular have performed strongly.

3.30 pm Since I wrote the comment above, I read an article saying that Goldman Sachs JBWere are encouraging bank buying - esp Anz and Wbc - as the defensives like Telstra have problems and earnings momentum is still ok in the banks. So it's not just my imagination.

Distractions. Thu Mar 4

It has been a week for distractions and once more I've been unable to really devote my full attention to the market. However, it is pretty much flatlining so I'm not missing much.
European markets are quite strong and have recovered a large chunk of their January fall but the Dow Jones and the local Xjo index are grinding up with rapidly dwindling momentum. Those who track momentum are pointing out that bearish divergence is emerging.
Here's the DJIA.

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Here's the Xjo.

I'm mainly staying out of trouble at the moment. I didn't play the rally particularly well but did make a few dollars. I don't generally want to be going long at present but neither are there many sell signals either.
Intraday is a washout today too and I'm looking at breakeven unless there's a late sell off. The Aussie market is still up 6 points at 3.16pm while the Nikkei and the Hang Seng are down about a half of one percent and the Shanghai index is lower by 1%. European stocks closed before the US gave up early gains so there'll probably be a negative bias there initially as well.

4.24 The market squeezed up into the close, we are in an uptrend after all so my few intraday positions were closed out for small losses.

One set up. Wed Mar 3

I've mentioned that I'm using intraday trading on a 5 minute scale to practise some trading techniques, particularly holding positions for longer, thereby reducing turnover, costs and slippage.
I was thinking about also using just one set up such as a 1-2-3 buy or sell signal but I've decided against that. My aim is to get in early to an intraday move where I can see either an existing trend or the possibility of one and to try to stay on until the trend changes. Every now and then you get a day which trends strongly from start to finish and those are the ones I'm hoping to capitalise on. I think that most of the others will give me small wins and losses over time with perhaps, a small winning bias.
Here's an example in Bhp.

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If I waited until there was a 1-2-3 buy signal I would have entered at 4168 just before 11 am. The stock had gapped open though, confirming a small uptrend so I waited for a pullback which came early and then entered soon after the open at 4157. The next serious swing low was after 1pm at about 4158 so my stop is just under that point now which would give me a breakeven result, roughly, if triggered. I'm still long and although the trend is looking tired, I'm staying with it unless stopped out.

The stock has closed now at 4167. The Spi was sold down during the match out period, driving down prices, only to rebound promptly afterwards. I sold out half just before 4pm at 4184 and the other half on the match. So not the windfall that this type of trading is aiming for but a reasonable outcome nonetheless.

I'm glad that's over. Tue Mar 2

It's approaching rate decision time and I've had the best part of a couple of days away from work.
First having to testify on behalf of a friend who'd been assaulted during a football match and then stressing about my son who was on his first solo overseas trip and missed a connection in Dubai. He was stuck in the terminal there for more than 24 hours but has now arrived home safely.
What I've missed is a market which is still rallying.
Ok, the rate decision has come through with a rise of 25 basis points to 4%. I think it was considered a certainty so it will be interesting to see if there's much reaction.
Apart from a few remnant overnight positions, I have nothing on the books and I'll probably just dabble if I do anything at all.
More tomorrow.