Still the beat goes on. Fri Apr 30

Another good US lead ignored as the currency and interest rate henchmen put their steel capped boots into the Aussie market. A fleeting 2 point rise has turned into a 29 point drop at the 40 minute mark. Another day, another stop out as I sold Linc at 275. My last long position in Toll is holding support and with oil prices flat over the last couple of weeks, this transport company is a beneficiary of a strong AUD. Most stocks are off so the lucky escape may be short lived.
Overall, it's a good start to the day. All my short positions are lower, Fortescue by 3%, and I've added a short in Oil Search. I think it is making a head and shoulders type top so there could be some momentum to a fall. Stop is in the high 730s and my entry is at 718. Not an excellent stop - 3% - so I'd probably actually use yesterday's high of 728 which is a swing high on the 60 minute chart. Here's the daily.

12.03 The rot stopped at 4803 when the Asx 200 was down 70. The loss is 49 points now, although it seems pretty likely that the recent 4789 low will be broken in the next few days.

A fair few stocks have already broken their equivalent lows. Here's Fortescue.

I bought back about 10-15% of my short positions fairly near to those lows with the exception of Boral where I added to the short at 493. It seems to have escaped notice lately but I have the feeling that support is weakening. It's tending to close towards the day's lows. This latest short is more exploratory though, it's not a great entry point, it's more that I want to get a feel for the support or lack of it.

2.40 The index just made a new low at 4797 although it has bounced a handful of points from there. Boral is hanging in at 493 so I may not get the break I was hoping for today. Osh has slipped further and is 700 offered now.

4.08 It looks like 4800 has held for now, with the index 4819 approaching the match. Most of the stocks I'm short edged back up but Boral is closing at 492, its lowest level since early February.
That's the end of April and a better day to finish off. The final level for the Asx 200 was 4823, down 50.

Reluctant participant. Thu Apr 28

More strong leads overnight have not given the Aussie market much cheer with a grudging rise of 21 points at 10.37 am after an initial 35 point pop.
With the AUD up at 1.09 versus the USD, it's fairly understandable. Despite all that, it's a bit hard to imagine much conviction to the selling given the way markets are running everywhere else.
This is a daily chart of the German market which has recovered strongly despite the Euro strengthening sharply against the US dollar.

11.34 A range has been established and the index is up 29. It's April expiry day for exchange traded options and that may hold most of the majors in a tight range for the rest of the day.

I'm always telling myself to do fewer and better trades and the holiday break has had me thinking about that.

Taking a critical look at the trades I have on, most of them are reasonable although only a few are compelling. Of the ones I'm in, I'm most interested in Alumina and Linc today because I can add to an existing position with a reasonably good margin of error.

Awc has had a sharp pullback after the nice run from the March sell off. I think a 3 wave retracement rally is the most likely but because there's plenty of room to the 272 high, a c wave could quite easily get to 255 rather than being a flat thing. I've bought some at 238 and my stop is at 231.

Linc is the most bullish looking of all the stocks I watch. I don't see it as a potential head and shoulders. I think that the 305 high in mid February was the completion of a move which corrected in 3 waves down to 237 at the mid March lows. Since then, the bounce to 300 looked like wave 1 which has been followed by a choppy correction. I'm hoping that correction is complete and looking for an explosive breakout through 300 as wave 3 begins. The danger - even if this is broadly correct - is that the correction chops along for some time and I have to stop out again. Nevertheless, I've bought more at 285 this morning with a stop around 274 and the chance of a range break and acceleration on the upside.

2.30 Back from a lunch and the market has drifted lower. Out of Bsl earlier at 188.5 but didn't stop out of all my Ost before I left, which was costly. Out of the last at 218 as the steels can't recover from the blow of the currency strength.

2.58 Expiry day hasn't stopped the market as I expected, the weakness has continued and the rise is just 9 points as the Aussie market reacts to higher rates and worsening terms of trade for many companies.

I cut my Fortescue hedge at 643 so I'm left with May 650 puts again. It looks like another leg down is possible.

It could, of course, find support and have another leg up. But unlike Awc, say, there's not much space for a retracement rally to push into.

I got out of my last Rsg at 123.5 because I had very little conviction about the trade.

My remaining longs are in Awc, Lnc, Pru and Tol which are all stocks with the potential for a higher low. Shorts are in Aru, Bld, Fmg and Lyc.

4.02 As the gains keep ebbing away, my conviction in any longs diminishes. I decided to stop out of Awc at 233 and Pru at 301. I can't necessarily justify it, the stocks are still above my stop, but the market seems under genuine pressure and I figure that there'll be other opportunities to buy.

4.13 The Asx 200 finished almost unchanged. Up 0.1 at 4873.

I'm still around breakeven for April, which isn't a great result, but better than how I feel which is as if I've been hammered after numerous stops. I guess I haven't let anything get out of control and that's the main thing.

Holiday mode. Wed Apr 27

The Aussie market is having a sleepy start to a shortened week. It's a safe assumption that many participants are away and despite quite strong gains overseas, when the missed days are netted out, the rise is just 7 points after 45 minutes.
The best mover for me is Lynas which has fallen 16 to 229 after some bad news over the break. According to the Dow Jones news wire, its Malaysia based processing plant is facing an environmental review next month. Lyc has first mover advantage so delays in the commisioning process will be a big negative. Secondly, there is a bit of a stink about a related party transaction which has also put investors offside. I suspect that if more players were on deck, the falls would be larger. The situation won't be resolved until next month and that's plenty of time for uncertainty to do its worst.

I've been watching Arafura with the intention of shorting it and although Lynas' misfortune could be construed as Aru's gain, the action is not positive. It's down 5 at 122 and I've shorted a small amount at 122.5 although I might have done better since I'd identified it as a short pre-market and the stock opened unchanged at 127. In mitigation, the opening market moves were strong. Anyway, here's the Aru daily.

11.19 The Asx 200 is just hovering above breakeven but with quarterly CPI figures due at 11.30 am there may be some impetus soon. I heard an estimate for 0.7% compared with two recent 0.4% rises as the flood effect is anticipated to kick in.

11.48 The CPI figures came in higher than expected and the market has dipped into the red by 6 points.
Early reaction is that I've read that a hawkish economist is calling for rate rises while the dovish RBA is pointing to the effect of the Queensland floods. Gee, a resources rent tax would make sense! Shame that the Rudd government lost the PR battle so badly.

12.15 The loss has extended to 23 points. I've been having a look at the top 100 to see if there's a pattern. It's generally a switch to defensives although that's a debatable strategy given a 2 speed economy. In the short term, the logic could be that downgrades due to the recent AUD strength are yet to find their way into analyst estimates.
One takeaway that is working in my favour is some weakness in Boral. Continued US housing weakness and the prospect of more of the same in Australia has seen the stock slip 11 to 501.

2.22 Back in the saddle after running some errands to find that the index is making new lows, down 32 points.

I sold some of my Resolute long at 126.5 before leaving the office, on the basis that momentum is fading and it could test the lows again even if the trade idea is ultimately correct. The stock is a shade lower now at 125. Stop for the rest is at 118. Entry level was 122 but even if I stop out for the balance, the trade will be about breakeven overall.

There's some selling across the board in the gold stocks and 13 out of 19 stocks in the Asx 300 gold index are down 2.9% or worse. One of those is Perseus which is back at 303, roughly my entry level. The stop is at 295 there.

3.01 Just bouncing now, down 33 but 9 points off the lows.

Bought some Linc at 284 so I'm glad I managed to hold myself back from buying too many at 292 last Thursday. This is more like the level I was looking for.

4.13 The index drifted down to new lows before closing just off the worst at 4873, down 41. An ok day for me with shorts in Bld and Lyc doing well.

I think the market might have over reacted to the headline CPI.

Whites of the eyes. Thu Apr 21

I'm really looking forward to a break, this is the last trading day until next Wednesday. Early gains are fading slightly as some caution prevails but the market is still up 31 after a strong overnight lead where it seemed as if everything went up.
For the umpteenth time this month, my longs and shorts are balancing out and I've nothing much to show for the day. One reason for that is that I'm not waiting until the balance is my way. For example, Lynas is up 7 at 247 where I've shorted some more. I should have been starting here, it was a toss of a coin trade yesterday when I shorted the first few at 238 and 240. The stock has rallied past what I thought could be resistance at 247 (intraday high of 251) but I think it's a good bet that there'll be a second swing down, it's just not the simple 5 wave thing I was anticipating. A stop above 260 is reasonable as I'd expect another drop to get to 220 but it does highlight that the risk/reward isn't there for yesterday's initial shorts.
My usual logic is that if I can consistently get the trade on at a really good level, my returns will be much better. The corollary is that there are going to be plenty of opportunities where a stock goes the way I expected and I don't get on board. The point to remember is that there will still be plenty of opportunities.
Here's the Lyc daily.

Looking at the chart, above, you can see that this is no sure bet. It's only in the short term that the stock is weak, on any medium term basis, the stock is in a good uptrend so any short I put on has to be well judged.

11.56 Fortescue is gathering speed and I'm out of the last of my short. It may have completed an a-b-c correction, in which case, it could pop up to a new high. I bought stock 1 for 1 with my puts so I'm synthetically long calls now.

Linc made a sell signal on Tuesday and reversed yesterday. I reluctantly cut but now, once more, it looks massively bullish. I'm loath to chase it up here because I'd like to see a pullback to the mid 280s but I'm worried about missing out! Now that it has had a c wave down, albeit a short one, the downside risk seems milder. It could track all the way back to 250, 260 but there has been ample opportunity in the midst of a sharp market correction and it hasn't happened so far. Here's the daily.

And here's the weekly.

12.32 Gold is rising in the Asian session, unusual lately when it has tended to pare back some of the overnight gains. If it wasn't for the Aussie dollar running even harder, I might be getting some joy from the gold longs.

2.40 Decided to buy a few Lnc on the backfoot at 292. I'm hoping to get more lower but with a couple more coal mines sales due to be announced, there is the possibility of market moving news over the long weekend.

4.28 That's it, a rise of 55 to 4914 and a strong finish to the week.
Same old April story for me, longs and shorts cancelled out although having reversed in Fmg, I'm bullishly positioned now.

Bucket of cold water. Wed Apr 20

A reasonable bounce overnight and after 25 minutes the response in Australia is roughly in line. Gold was a touch firmer and gold stocks started to recover in the US as did steel stocks after Korean company Posco increased prices.
I had more of a look at Intrepid and the report on their Indonesian mine. I realised that there was a good reason the stock had underperformed yesterday because the market capitalisation had moved well ahead of NPV estimates which are going to tend to the conservative anyway and administer a bucket of cold water to overheated speculators. I dumped the stock at 198 on the open, which was unchanged and the stock has slipped to 195. I feel that it's too late to chase but it's probably going lower. In hindsight, the sell signal was obvious but my bullishness about gold blinded me to it.

In the meantime, I'm fairly happy with the rest of my holdings. The steels are moving conservatively but could gather momentum through the day. I bought more Bsl at 194.

On the gold front, I bought some Perseus at 300 yesterday afternoon and have added the rest at 305 this morning. There was a gap to fill and some support at around 295 so I took that as a reasonable level from which to try to pick a retracement completion.

11.11 It's quarterly reporting season for the miners and Resolute have announced increased gold production at a lower cost than the previous quarter. The company is making money and paying off debt. It looked pretty good to me and using a previous 118.5 swing high as the basis for a stop, I've gone long at 122. I'm hoping that an a-b-c retracement is complete.

1.03 The Asx 200 is having a very decent recovery, up 55 points at 4849.

I sold a third of my Fmg May 650 puts at 36 with the stock just up a couple of cents. Telstra is unchanged and only Boral is moving against me with a rise of 8 to 506, although I'm more inclined to short stock into the rally.

I wouldn't mind re-shorting Lynas either, but there doesn't seem to be any rush. Something in the 240s would be reasonable because I'm looking for the rally to fail below the last swing low which is at 247.

2.44 The market is steady over the last couple of hours.

I shorted a few more Boral at 506 and made a start on Lynas at 238. The steel stocks haven't got a move on but they're holding while Resolute is up at125.

3.18 I've been buying odds and ends in Toll holdings this week. I've averaged around 566 with a few jobbing profits as well. I'm fairly confident that it is turning around and should make a higher low. My stop is going to depend on how serious any selling might be but, I guess, somewhere in the mid 550s.

Actually, this looks like a stock which would be quite a good buy for a value investor. It's trading well below its long term P/E and is priced at bottom of the cycle levels on the assumption - probably accurate - that consumption won't improve in a hurry. Nevertheless, the cycle will turn eventually and the stock will get the benefit of increased earnings and P/E expansion. In the meantime you could keep writing option premium around the edges to get a return on top of the dividend.

The weekly chart shows one bounce from the post GFC lows which has retraced over 15 months but looks like making a higher low.

4.18 The Asx 200 added 66 points to close at 4859 so it was almost a complete recovery of yesterday's loss.

I shorted a couple more Lynas at 240 - where they closed - and it was yet another flat day in a month that hasn't got off the ground for me.

Shock, horror. Tue Apr 19

Ratings agency S&P put the US on credit watch and the early impact was a 250 point drop in the DJIA but there was a gradual recovery and the Dow finished down 140. Most metals were lower, as was oil, but gold had a 10 buck bounce.
There's a school of thought that the need for a credit alert is so blindingly obvious that even the S&P could see it and that the headlines will allow US legislators to cut budgets much more easily. With that in mind and despite an early 50 point fall in the Asx 200, I'm not uber bearish for the rest of the day and I suspect that overnight leads would need to be very weak for further substantial falls because there'll be a fair bit of book squaring going on leading into Easter.
I was net long overnight and my book is about square this morning but I can't quite take a trick in April. Iau was the fly in the ointment as it has fallen to 201 on what seems like mild panic. I bought more at 201 on that basis and I'm hoping to flick it out later to soften the blow.
Otherwise, I bought back the Fmg short stock at 629 but still have May puts and bought back half of my Lynas short at 235. I've added a couple more Tol at 568 and Ost at 226 as they flirt with support on the basis that it's a close stop if I'm wrong and I'm looking for a retracement.
My energy longs, Karoon and Linc, are also flirting with support but I'm less confident about them and just watching.
Looking at the Xjo chart, there's no particular reason why the fall should stop here and that gives me reason to be cautious. V tops are much less common than V bottoms however and there's maybe a bit of previous resistance around 4800 from October/December plus the chance of some round number support that might help the index.

11.45 The index fell out of a little range as the Chinese markets opened so that the drop is now 62 points and the Asx 200 is right on 4800. Asian markets are posting equivalent losses of just over 1%.

I've started to sell out of Karoon as it slowly tips over. I was using a swing low at 695 as a stop and sold some at 694. There's some steady buying so although the stock is now 689, I'm hopeful of getting out of this illiquid stock at slightly better levels.

2.02 Just bobbing along on the bottom of the intraday range with signs of minor support as Asian markets recover slightly.

Boral is catching up with the state of play and is down 18 at 493. I bought back half of my short stock but added puts yesterday which means my net position is little changed. The chart looks more bearish than my initial ideas so I'm hoping for a couple more weak days.

4.03 Another stop in Lnc as 280 fails to hold. Out at 279.

I also bought back the last Lyc at 233; prematurely it seems as the stock has hit 229 and looks set to close around that level. Molycorp is still performing well so I'm worried about the risk/reward in this one on a change of sentiment. Shorted them at 255 so not a bad little trade.

4.12 The Asx 200 closed at 4793, down 69 points. It was a breakeven day which is ok because although the dollar value of my book is pretty square, it's a high beta shape with a few mid cap shorts and a bunch of smaller cap longs.

Indiscriminate. Mon Apr 18

A late Easter is fast approaching, the kids are on holiday and the weekend is extended to 5 days this year because of Anzac day on Tuesday next week. The upshot is that the market is softening quickly after a mildly positive open and scant attention is being paid to overnight leads.
For example, gold rose just short of 1% but the response has been negligible as investors continue to lighten off ahead of the holiday. I bought a handful of Intrepid at 217 with a tight stop at 210. It either fails and drops back into the December to March trading range or resumes the rally. The risk/rewards seems ok but I'm hoping to see some direction emerge before buying more.

On Friday, the union movement came out strongly in favour of the steel industry gaining exemptions to the proposed carbon tax. I thought it could provide a strong catalyst for the steel stocks but there's no response so far.

11.32 Short and not so sweet. Out of the Iau at 212, they're 210 now, as the selling continues. Lynas is down 10 at 243 and Fmg is weakening so a bit of joy there.

11.48 Bought some more Ost at 229. It's just ticking back up and Bsl has got some support so I'm hoping that we could get a squeeze this week as the long break approaches.

12.08 Talking of squeezes...Boral is up 7 at 514 but I can't take it too seriously. I'm going to leave a stop in the mid 520s and I'm actually looking to buy a few June puts on the back foot if it keeps edging up.

12.50 A sharp change of sentiment has helped the market to bounce 34 points off the lows. Just a tad below the high now, up 21.

I bought some Bsl as well since it has a similar chart to Ost. I like the Ost story better but they're moving in tandem and both now finding support; Bsl slightly more so than Ost. Long at 191 with the stop below Thursday's low.

I was too hasty in Iau which has had a clear rejection of the old trading range. Fortunately, it was for a small amount and I've re-entered at 217 in larger size as the picture is better now.

3.03 The index has held most of the gains and looks ready to firm into tomorrow.

Boral has been as high as 517 but is back at 513. I bought June 516 puts at 20 when it was a touch higher.

3.14 Definitely a counterintuitive few days in the gold space. Out of Resolute at 125. The sell signal was 125.5 but I was hoping for a false break and gave it an extra half cent. I could have cut and reversed but the sector is flaky at the moment so I might try to short on a weak looking rally.

4.12 There was selling across the board in the closing match so that the gain was trimmed to 10 points.

A pretty flat day for me, with a small loss attributable to Rsg.

Passing the time. Fri Apr 15

With no significant lead from the US indices, the Aussie market is waiting for the Chinese figures which come out at noon. Gold recovered overnight and rallied up to a new high so that's the sector that is moving.
I sold some Sbm stock at 226 and finished selling Intrepid at 222 this morning as early promise has faded. I still have Resolute but exitted Regis on strength yesterday.
My short in Lynas has edged up to 258 but I'm reasonably happy because Molycorp was strong in the US overnight but Lyc (and Aru) are showing signs of disengaging from that particular train.
I've shorted some Fmg at 661 as they also push up on rumours that Chinese growth will surprise to the upside. I'm looking for a lower high here.

I want to buy some One Steel but the stock is going nowhere so I don't need to chase it. When a chart is as weak as this, I do go and look at the numbers and the stock is very cheap with a hedged earnings stream, so I don't expect nasty surprises.

I plan to use 225 as a stop and hope to get set around 230. I'm hoping for another leg up and given the value in the stock, a move above 260 is easily possible.

11.37 Approaching noon but the market has shown its hand and has fallen by 23 points. Sold a few more Lynas at 256 as they started to slip.

12.12 As you were, the market is square again after the figures - roughly as expected with the tightening bias to continue.
I sold out of Sbm at 225 and bought a few One Steel at 234 as they're slightly sought after and it's not a bad place to start buying.

3.00 The recovery at noon was fleeting and the index has slipped again to be just off its lows at 4856, down 28. Fmg has come back - I added a few more to the short at midday and have bought that back at 655 and 651. I did much the same in Bld and Lyc and that's helped to get the day on track because they're falling gently while the longs are hanging in there.
Ipl is down another 9 at 408. I could have shorted a few this morning on a little recovery up to 421 but I was hoping for something in the mid 420s. I'm irrationally tempted to buy some but won't. I suppose that if it had a quick plunge to 400, I'd have some sort of justification.

4.10 No lasting bounces and the index is closing at the lows, down 32.

It was a minor up day for me but I'm pretty happy with my positions, I've worn some pain on a couple of the shorts but the rallies didn't last and time is running out for them on the long side. The only problem position is a long in Karoon which rallied a bit yesterday but is back close to support again at 704. I did sell a few in the high teens.

Sneaking up. Thu Apr 14

Almost an hour in and the Asx 200 is 20 points lower and it looks like yesterday was a pause before more weakness. European indices recovered but the US didn't do much. Oil and gold have muted recoveries while base metals sank again. The large miners are down around a percent and the top 20 generally is a bit weaker than the overall market. Some of the smaller caps are having a sneaky rally. Regis (gold) is up on a positive quarterly cash flow although I haven't got much left; I've just been feeding my last stock into the buying this morning. Rsg and Sbm are showing signs of turning and Iau is up.
My energy longs are a bit softer. Karoon is the problem position. It's fairly choppy so I've got a wide stop, below the last swing low. I was hoping yesterday's late recovery would feed into today but there's been no joy yet.
The key here is that the rally has broken through resistance but it's only just holding a little trend channel.

Otherwise Boral has bounced 10 to 507 and is just below the sell signal. I'd bought about half of my position back in the 490s so I've reshorted at 507.

11.04 Yesterday, I got Lynas wrong early and recovered later. I sold out the long stock this morning and I've shorted it at 256. I'm anticipating a lower high and it may be that the stock can get a bit closer to the recent high at 270 before falling over, if I'm right. At least, the fill is better than yesterday where I was chasing the trade.

2.04 Back in the office after a couple of hours away to find the market down by 35 but off the lows. Not a lot of change.

I bought back the last of my Ipl short in the low 420s and it has fallen further to confirm a sell signal. The chart is much clearer now and I'll be looking to re-short into rallies or flat consolidations.

4.14 The final result was a 27 point loss as the Asx 200 fell below 4900 to close at 4884.

I reduced my longs in Iau, Kar, Lnc, Rsg and Sbm but added a small new position in Toll. I'm assuming that this will make a higher low because the downtrend has lost all momentum. It has retraced about two thirds of the recent swing so I'm to start nibbling at a long here.

Otherwise, Boral fell back a little to 505.

I'm not quite in synch yet, 2 days up then 2 days down for a very minor gain so far this week.

Not so fast....Wed Apr 13

The market isn't ready for more of the same unidirectional action. The early sell off was quickly reversed with a 23 point drop turning into a 12 point gain in quick time. The lead overnight was more of a catch up to action in Asian and Australian markets and gold recovered Asian losses before matching them in the end. Oil fell solidly though as it continued its reversal.
So far, I've got the intraday stuff fairly right. I've closed out my short in Awe at 162.5, bought back the short stock in Fmg at 647 (still have puts), closed out the Tol short at 572 and nibbled at Ipl at 431.My gold longs are showing signs of recovering today and US gold major Newmont actually gained last night. Aussie gold behemoth Ncm has also rallied from early lows although it's still fractionally lower.
There seems to be support for Linc so I picked up a few at 284. I still like the short in Bld and sold a few more at 500.
The rare earths stock were largely unscathed in the US so after dabbling with a short in Lynas early on, I've cut it and reversed for an intraday squeeze.
My overall view is that oil and gold are just having a breather so I'm trying to hold on until proven wrong.
Here's the spot gold chart; it was a clear breakout above 1440 and the trend looks solid enough.

11.15 No new trades although there is always the one that got away. Today's example is Qantas. I was thinking about buying this yesterday for the same reason that I didn't expect Tol to fall much more ie big users of oil and oil is having a nice reversal. I had to be quick though and I couldn't quite bring myself to pay 215 when I could have pre-empted yesterday for 210, 211. Should have done though, it's raced up to 221.

12.11 Or maybe not not so fast...another reversal and the market has just been almost back down to the lows. I'm punting support is close but it could go either way and the HSI has opened and drifted down about half of one percent.

2.05 Support held and the market is square now. I suspect the Asx 200 has topped and it's just a question of how far it retraces.

2.47 Bought back into Intrepid at 223 a little while ago. The stock held support this morning and there's a chance of a quick reversal above 240. Stop is at 210.

The index is firmly positive again with a rise of 18 points.

4.20 The gains held; 12 points up to 4911.
A funny day, I traded ok intraday but lost overall because the small cap gold and oils are still struggling to find their feet while the larger caps had minor bounces. If the tiddlers can recover, I'll be in good shape because the bounce will probably be strong.

Go, go, Gagarin. Tue Apr 12

Sputnik might be coming back down to earth as it looks as if we've had a blow off top. The index is down just 17 but it was a night when USD strength reasserted itself at the expense of oil, gold etc. Base metals were steady but Alcoa is down after market following a disappointing result and that has set the tone here.
My smallish cap longs were smacked early, especially as they're largely oil and gold, but they're steadying now while the larger cap shorts are gradually capitulating.
I've had some May 650 puts in Fmg which have been ebbing away but they're bouncing back today and I shorted some stock at 674 too.
I've also added a short in Awe at 170. There was a reversal yesterday and a pullback is probably in order.

I'm nearly out of my short in Sek for a small profit as they're holding up today and there's more good news for them relating to their Brazilian offshoot. I've also cut the Aru long - maybe just temporarily - as the stock isn't responding to overnight sector strength and a rare earths conference in Australia.
Tol is slightly weaker and I've bought a few back because the oil price drop is a plus for them.
Ipl looks ok now. The lower high I was punting may have eventuated. Added a few more at 443.

11.06 The second mini bounce of the session has faded and it's a day when the beaten up short players might start to gather confidence. It's in the balance now but the possibility is definitely there of a snowball effect.

11.53 Short again in Boral. Wasn't patient enough with the previous short, partly because the entry was poor. This is a better entry because there was an a-b-c retracement which failed to overlap previous support in the mid 520s. There's a good chance this is heading into the 480's. Short at 510 and the stock is down at 502 now.

The fall in the index is gathering momentum. Down 40 points now.

12.09 Got out of the Intrepid long on the open at 236, it was the only gold that opened firmer.

Also sold a third of my Linc long at 293. I decided to keep the rest as there was some support but the stock is down to 288 now that the index has fallen harder. I'm hoping that 280 support will hold but I'm debating whether the risk is too high that there'll be a c wave down. In fact, I've just convinced myself and have sold the last 2/3 of the position at 288. Entry was at 292.

I'm a little bit in love with this stock but if it does hold 280 and rally again then I won't mind chasing an entry too much because the picture would then be very bullish.

1.35 It's a pretty big snowball now with the market down 70 points; colloquially known as a Ricketson.

I've added a trading short in Lynas but have been nibbling away at things. Bought back a few Awe at 165, Bld at 500, Fmg at 660, Ipl at 434 and Tol at 575.

4.18 The index kept grinding lower but managed a small late bounce to finish down 72 at 4899.

It wasn't a bad day in the end, the small caps didn't really recover but the large caps fell through the day. I did buy back some Linc at around 288 as the buying returned.

Out of the trading short in Lynas but it looks like one to play from the short side again tomorrow.

New high and a reversal....although not incredibly stretched.

Better start. Mon Apr 11

Well, it's a better start for me as I begin to get in step with the market's current rhythm. The gold longs are doing pretty well, as is the energy long in Linc in a minor way. Shorts in Tol and Tls are weak or flat and I'm also short Ipl and Sek now.
Not really sure about Ipl because the strength is in resources but it's a strange choppy chart and as a hedge for the rest of my book, it works ok, with a tight stop just above the last swing high. Short at 440.
Actually, it looks like the sort of thing where I could be stopping out by this afternoon....I hope not.

Sek looks a lot like Tol, with a five wave swing which looks complete. Short at 667 with a stop above the recent high.

I'm long another energy play now, Karoon. I was watching it this morning and there was a lot of stock offered just below the recent high so I was tossing up whether to buy into it when a large buyer hoovered up the lot at 730, 731. I chased it up and got set at an average of 735 as the vacuum sucked it quickly up to 750. It's at 745 now. It's a nice breakout, once more breaking back into the consolidation band which held through mid November into mid February. I think it can acclerate from here. Stop is around 715, 720.

11.38 I got my knickers in a twist over a few stocks last week, one of them was Intrepid where I cut a long on a minor technical break without giving it time and a couple of extra cents to consolidate. Iau recovered and has shot up today. I got a few shares in the low 220s after just missing out on the opening match. The stock is well bid and up 8% now at 231.

2.36 It's the ultimate V bounce; the Asx 200 is now clearly above February's high, just before the tsunami.

4.10 I managed to hang on to the gains as the day unfolded although the positions didn't really get on a roll. I'm still balancing longs and shorts so the net dollar exposure is flat.

The Asx 200 is closing on 5000 after a 30 point up day left the index at 4971.