I had more of a look at Intrepid and the report on their Indonesian mine. I realised that there was a good reason the stock had underperformed yesterday because the market capitalisation had moved well ahead of NPV estimates which are going to tend to the conservative anyway and administer a bucket of cold water to overheated speculators. I dumped the stock at 198 on the open, which was unchanged and the stock has slipped to 195. I feel that it's too late to chase but it's probably going lower. In hindsight, the sell signal was obvious but my bullishness about gold blinded me to it.
In the meantime, I'm fairly happy with the rest of my holdings. The steels are moving conservatively but could gather momentum through the day. I bought more Bsl at 194.
On the gold front, I bought some Perseus at 300 yesterday afternoon and have added the rest at 305 this morning. There was a gap to fill and some support at around 295 so I took that as a reasonable level from which to try to pick a retracement completion.
11.11 It's quarterly reporting season for the miners and Resolute have announced increased gold production at a lower cost than the previous quarter. The company is making money and paying off debt. It looked pretty good to me and using a previous 118.5 swing high as the basis for a stop, I've gone long at 122. I'm hoping that an a-b-c retracement is complete.
1.03 The Asx 200 is having a very decent recovery, up 55 points at 4849.
I sold a third of my Fmg May 650 puts at 36 with the stock just up a couple of cents. Telstra is unchanged and only Boral is moving against me with a rise of 8 to 506, although I'm more inclined to short stock into the rally.
I wouldn't mind re-shorting Lynas either, but there doesn't seem to be any rush. Something in the 240s would be reasonable because I'm looking for the rally to fail below the last swing low which is at 247.
2.44 The market is steady over the last couple of hours.
I shorted a few more Boral at 506 and made a start on Lynas at 238. The steel stocks haven't got a move on but they're holding while Resolute is up at125.
3.18 I've been buying odds and ends in Toll holdings this week. I've averaged around 566 with a few jobbing profits as well. I'm fairly confident that it is turning around and should make a higher low. My stop is going to depend on how serious any selling might be but, I guess, somewhere in the mid 550s.
Actually, this looks like a stock which would be quite a good buy for a value investor. It's trading well below its long term P/E and is priced at bottom of the cycle levels on the assumption - probably accurate - that consumption won't improve in a hurry. Nevertheless, the cycle will turn eventually and the stock will get the benefit of increased earnings and P/E expansion. In the meantime you could keep writing option premium around the edges to get a return on top of the dividend.
The weekly chart shows one bounce from the post GFC lows which has retraced over 15 months but looks like making a higher low.
4.18 The Asx 200 added 66 points to close at 4859 so it was almost a complete recovery of yesterday's loss.
I shorted a couple more Lynas at 240 - where they closed - and it was yet another flat day in a month that hasn't got off the ground for me.
No comments:
Post a Comment