Monday, April 18, 2011

Indiscriminate. Mon Apr 18

A late Easter is fast approaching, the kids are on holiday and the weekend is extended to 5 days this year because of Anzac day on Tuesday next week. The upshot is that the market is softening quickly after a mildly positive open and scant attention is being paid to overnight leads.
For example, gold rose just short of 1% but the response has been negligible as investors continue to lighten off ahead of the holiday. I bought a handful of Intrepid at 217 with a tight stop at 210. It either fails and drops back into the December to March trading range or resumes the rally. The risk/rewards seems ok but I'm hoping to see some direction emerge before buying more.













On Friday, the union movement came out strongly in favour of the steel industry gaining exemptions to the proposed carbon tax. I thought it could provide a strong catalyst for the steel stocks but there's no response so far.

11.32 Short and not so sweet. Out of the Iau at 212, they're 210 now, as the selling continues. Lynas is down 10 at 243 and Fmg is weakening so a bit of joy there.

11.48 Bought some more Ost at 229. It's just ticking back up and Bsl has got some support so I'm hoping that we could get a squeeze this week as the long break approaches.

12.08 Talking of squeezes...Boral is up 7 at 514 but I can't take it too seriously. I'm going to leave a stop in the mid 520s and I'm actually looking to buy a few June puts on the back foot if it keeps edging up.
12.50 A sharp change of sentiment has helped the market to bounce 34 points off the lows. Just a tad below the high now, up 21.
I bought some Bsl as well since it has a similar chart to Ost. I like the Ost story better but they're moving in tandem and both now finding support; Bsl slightly more so than Ost. Long at 191 with the stop below Thursday's low.
I was too hasty in Iau which has had a clear rejection of the old trading range. Fortunately, it was for a small amount and I've re-entered at 217 in larger size as the picture is better now.

3.03 The index has held most of the gains and looks ready to firm into tomorrow.
Boral has been as high as 517 but is back at 513. I bought June 516 puts at 20 when it was a touch higher.

3.14 Definitely a counterintuitive few days in the gold space. Out of Resolute at 125. The sell signal was 125.5 but I was hoping for a false break and gave it an extra half cent. I could have cut and reversed but the sector is flaky at the moment so I might try to short on a weak looking rally.
4.12 There was selling across the board in the closing match so that the gain was trimmed to 10 points.
A pretty flat day for me, with a small loss attributable to Rsg.

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