Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Not so fast....Wed Apr 13

The market isn't ready for more of the same unidirectional action. The early sell off was quickly reversed with a 23 point drop turning into a 12 point gain in quick time. The lead overnight was more of a catch up to action in Asian and Australian markets and gold recovered Asian losses before matching them in the end. Oil fell solidly though as it continued its reversal.
So far, I've got the intraday stuff fairly right. I've closed out my short in Awe at 162.5, bought back the short stock in Fmg at 647 (still have puts), closed out the Tol short at 572 and nibbled at Ipl at 431.My gold longs are showing signs of recovering today and US gold major Newmont actually gained last night. Aussie gold behemoth Ncm has also rallied from early lows although it's still fractionally lower.
There seems to be support for Linc so I picked up a few at 284. I still like the short in Bld and sold a few more at 500.
The rare earths stock were largely unscathed in the US so after dabbling with a short in Lynas early on, I've cut it and reversed for an intraday squeeze.
My overall view is that oil and gold are just having a breather so I'm trying to hold on until proven wrong.
Here's the spot gold chart; it was a clear breakout above 1440 and the trend looks solid enough.
11.15 No new trades although there is always the one that got away. Today's example is Qantas. I was thinking about buying this yesterday for the same reason that I didn't expect Tol to fall much more ie big users of oil and oil is having a nice reversal. I had to be quick though and I couldn't quite bring myself to pay 215 when I could have pre-empted yesterday for 210, 211. Should have done though, it's raced up to 221.
12.11 Or maybe not not so fast...another reversal and the market has just been almost back down to the lows. I'm punting support is close but it could go either way and the HSI has opened and drifted down about half of one percent.

2.05 Support held and the market is square now. I suspect the Asx 200 has topped and it's just a question of how far it retraces.

2.47 Bought back into Intrepid at 223 a little while ago. The stock held support this morning and there's a chance of a quick reversal above 240. Stop is at 210.













The index is firmly positive again with a rise of 18 points.

4.20 The gains held; 12 points up to 4911.
A funny day, I traded ok intraday but lost overall because the small cap gold and oils are still struggling to find their feet while the larger caps had minor bounces. If the tiddlers can recover, I'll be in good shape because the bounce will probably be strong.

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