Friday, April 15, 2011

Passing the time. Fri Apr 15

With no significant lead from the US indices, the Aussie market is waiting for the Chinese figures which come out at noon. Gold recovered overnight and rallied up to a new high so that's the sector that is moving.
I sold some Sbm stock at 226 and finished selling Intrepid at 222 this morning as early promise has faded. I still have Resolute but exitted Regis on strength yesterday.
My short in Lynas has edged up to 258 but I'm reasonably happy because Molycorp was strong in the US overnight but Lyc (and Aru) are showing signs of disengaging from that particular train.
I've shorted some Fmg at 661 as they also push up on rumours that Chinese growth will surprise to the upside. I'm looking for a lower high here.

I want to buy some One Steel but the stock is going nowhere so I don't need to chase it. When a chart is as weak as this, I do go and look at the numbers and the stock is very cheap with a hedged earnings stream, so I don't expect nasty surprises.
I plan to use 225 as a stop and hope to get set around 230. I'm hoping for another leg up and given the value in the stock, a move above 260 is easily possible.

11.37 Approaching noon but the market has shown its hand and has fallen by 23 points. Sold a few more Lynas at 256 as they started to slip.

12.12 As you were, the market is square again after the figures - roughly as expected with the tightening bias to continue.
I sold out of Sbm at 225 and bought a few One Steel at 234 as they're slightly sought after and it's not a bad place to start buying.

3.00 The recovery at noon was fleeting and the index has slipped again to be just off its lows at 4856, down 28. Fmg has come back - I added a few more to the short at midday and have bought that back at 655 and 651. I did much the same in Bld and Lyc and that's helped to get the day on track because they're falling gently while the longs are hanging in there.
Ipl is down another 9 at 408. I could have shorted a few this morning on a little recovery up to 421 but I was hoping for something in the mid 420s. I'm irrationally tempted to buy some but won't. I suppose that if it had a quick plunge to 400, I'd have some sort of justification.
4.10 No lasting bounces and the index is closing at the lows, down 32.
It was a minor up day for me but I'm pretty happy with my positions, I've worn some pain on a couple of the shorts but the rallies didn't last and time is running out for them on the long side. The only problem position is a long in Karoon which rallied a bit yesterday but is back close to support again at 704. I did sell a few in the high teens.

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