Thursday, April 7, 2011

Stalling. Thu Apr 7

Another gain eked out despite the bail out in Portugal and a potential impasse with the US budget. The Aussie market has peeled off from some early gains to be just above breakeven after an hour.
Base metals were firm last night with nickel bouncing 4% and copper 3%.
I haven't really put on any new trades this morning, just traded around existing positions.
I stopped out of Iau at 205. It was a risky buy at the top of the range and unlike the other golds, it seems to be under some selling pressure.
11.23 I had to stop out of Wsa at 700 as it took a lead from the nickel price. Also in the nickel space, I've gone long Mcr at 144. It's in retracement mode but has just announced a "spectacular" nickel find (their words) and given it had been sold down because of the early closure of an older mine, there may be a few shorts around. Stop is at about 134 and if there's a squeeze, it could move fast.

Also out of the short in Ipl at 425 and 426. I'm undecided about this so I took it off for a small profit.

11.51 I've been caught out in Iau as it has reversed back to be down just 1 at 210. Frustrating but an occupational hazard.
I've replaced it with a long in fellow gold stock Sbm which is gathering strength after making a higher low in mid March.

11.58 Earlier on, I also stopped out of Bsl at 204 and Ost at 247 for a small profit and a small loss respectively. They're both failing to accelerate.
It has been a frustrating period for me and I'm trading skittishly.

12.39 The rally is not going to give up without a fight but there are increasing signs of exhaustion. I've just bought May 290 puts in Telstra at 10 because there's a sharp swing higher in 5 waves which was followed yesterday by a break of the previous day's low. There's no serious weakness yet but a run of the mill retracement might take the stock down to the low 270s while the options would still retain 4 or 5 cents of premium if the rally were to keep going into the 290s.

2.23 Also short Toll at 593.5 as it also has a swing up from the lows which subdivided into 5 waves. It's always going to struggle when fuel prices are surging and may be due a quick trip to 560 something.

4.10 Paladin sold off steadily all day and I probably could have cut earlier. Out at 371 (v 378) although some sales at 392 meant it was breakeven.
The Asx 200 closed down 5 but it's the first down day for a while.

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