Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Mustn't grumble. Tue Apr 5

A change in fortunes for me after I stopped fighting the tape. The best of my 3 new longs is Paladin which has risen 14 to 393. The new short in Osh has performed ok as it made a marginal new high at 730 but is now lower by 6 at 721.
Wsa has edged up some more but the market is finally looking tired and the European and US leads were dull. Oil was the outperformer, with Brent rising to USD 120, which is supposed to be a level where economic growth starts to become impacted. The oil plays here are not so hot today though with Santos and Woodside also lower.
Gold keeps surprising to the upside: it didn't have a large rise but I think that people have been looking for a sell off. I've bought Intrepid at 210, although it's a tad lower now at 208. There was a breakout the other day which I didn't take and I've put on the trade hoping for another push up. I've got a stop at 200.
I'm buying near the top of the range but I like the higher low last month and the way that the stock is starting to move in large swings.
The expression "mustn't grumble" is usually the preface to a whinge and mine is that I've completely butchered Lynas. I was so bullish after the 200 breakout but stupidly tried to put on an intraday trading short one day and completely missed the move. I also didn't pull the trigger to buy the early pullback on Friday even though I'd written about doing just that if it were to happen.
One thing to remember is that great opportunities turn up on a regular basis so just shrug your shoulders, laugh at yourself, and move on.
Maybe Paladin is the next good one for me. Unlike Lynas, it looks like a retracement and not a breakout, but it has that lovely parabolic shape. Fingers crossed for a quick move to 420 or 440.
11.59 The gains are gently evaporating. Here's the Asx 200.
I was looking at images of parabolas. Here's the path of a dropped golf ball courtesy of intmath.com.


2.34 No change from the RBA.
The market is making a minor sell signal on the 30 minute chart after a new high. Could be a weak finish.

4.05 This rally is a Hollywood uber-baddy; it's not going to die easily.

4.11 In the last hour, my longs edged down and my shorts ground higher so the day was flat and a trifle disappointing.
The Asx 200 managed a 13 point gain, finishing at a fraction of a point above 4900.

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