Shock, horror. Tue Apr 19

Ratings agency S&P put the US on credit watch and the early impact was a 250 point drop in the DJIA but there was a gradual recovery and the Dow finished down 140. Most metals were lower, as was oil, but gold had a 10 buck bounce.
There's a school of thought that the need for a credit alert is so blindingly obvious that even the S&P could see it and that the headlines will allow US legislators to cut budgets much more easily. With that in mind and despite an early 50 point fall in the Asx 200, I'm not uber bearish for the rest of the day and I suspect that overnight leads would need to be very weak for further substantial falls because there'll be a fair bit of book squaring going on leading into Easter.
I was net long overnight and my book is about square this morning but I can't quite take a trick in April. Iau was the fly in the ointment as it has fallen to 201 on what seems like mild panic. I bought more at 201 on that basis and I'm hoping to flick it out later to soften the blow.
Otherwise, I bought back the Fmg short stock at 629 but still have May puts and bought back half of my Lynas short at 235. I've added a couple more Tol at 568 and Ost at 226 as they flirt with support on the basis that it's a close stop if I'm wrong and I'm looking for a retracement.
My energy longs, Karoon and Linc, are also flirting with support but I'm less confident about them and just watching.
Looking at the Xjo chart, there's no particular reason why the fall should stop here and that gives me reason to be cautious. V tops are much less common than V bottoms however and there's maybe a bit of previous resistance around 4800 from October/December plus the chance of some round number support that might help the index.

11.45 The index fell out of a little range as the Chinese markets opened so that the drop is now 62 points and the Asx 200 is right on 4800. Asian markets are posting equivalent losses of just over 1%.

I've started to sell out of Karoon as it slowly tips over. I was using a swing low at 695 as a stop and sold some at 694. There's some steady buying so although the stock is now 689, I'm hopeful of getting out of this illiquid stock at slightly better levels.

2.02 Just bobbing along on the bottom of the intraday range with signs of minor support as Asian markets recover slightly.

Boral is catching up with the state of play and is down 18 at 493. I bought back half of my short stock but added puts yesterday which means my net position is little changed. The chart looks more bearish than my initial ideas so I'm hoping for a couple more weak days.

4.03 Another stop in Lnc as 280 fails to hold. Out at 279.

I also bought back the last Lyc at 233; prematurely it seems as the stock has hit 229 and looks set to close around that level. Molycorp is still performing well so I'm worried about the risk/reward in this one on a change of sentiment. Shorted them at 255 so not a bad little trade.

4.12 The Asx 200 closed at 4793, down 69 points. It was a breakeven day which is ok because although the dollar value of my book is pretty square, it's a high beta shape with a few mid cap shorts and a bunch of smaller cap longs.