Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Go, go, Gagarin. Tue Apr 12

Sputnik might be coming back down to earth as it looks as if we've had a blow off top. The index is down just 17 but it was a night when USD strength reasserted itself at the expense of oil, gold etc. Base metals were steady but Alcoa is down after market following a disappointing result and that has set the tone here.
My smallish cap longs were smacked early, especially as they're largely oil and gold, but they're steadying now while the larger cap shorts are gradually capitulating.
I've had some May 650 puts in Fmg which have been ebbing away but they're bouncing back today and I shorted some stock at 674 too.
I've also added a short in Awe at 170. There was a reversal yesterday and a pullback is probably in order.














I'm nearly out of my short in Sek for a small profit as they're holding up today and there's more good news for them relating to their Brazilian offshoot. I've also cut the Aru long - maybe just temporarily - as the stock isn't responding to overnight sector strength and a rare earths conference in Australia.
Tol is slightly weaker and I've bought a few back because the oil price drop is a plus for them.
Ipl looks ok now. The lower high I was punting may have eventuated. Added a few more at 443.

11.06 The second mini bounce of the session has faded and it's a day when the beaten up short players might start to gather confidence. It's in the balance now but the possibility is definitely there of a snowball effect.

11.53 Short again in Boral. Wasn't patient enough with the previous short, partly because the entry was poor. This is a better entry because there was an a-b-c retracement which failed to overlap previous support in the mid 520s. There's a good chance this is heading into the 480's. Short at 510 and the stock is down at 502 now.
The fall in the index is gathering momentum. Down 40 points now.

12.09 Got out of the Intrepid long on the open at 236, it was the only gold that opened firmer.
Also sold a third of my Linc long at 293. I decided to keep the rest as there was some support but the stock is down to 288 now that the index has fallen harder. I'm hoping that 280 support will hold but I'm debating whether the risk is too high that there'll be a c wave down. In fact, I've just convinced myself and have sold the last 2/3 of the position at 288. Entry was at 292.
I'm a little bit in love with this stock but if it does hold 280 and rally again then I won't mind chasing an entry too much because the picture would then be very bullish.
1.35 It's a pretty big snowball now with the market down 70 points; colloquially known as a Ricketson.
I've added a trading short in Lynas but have been nibbling away at things. Bought back a few Awe at 165, Bld at 500, Fmg at 660, Ipl at 434 and Tol at 575.

4.18 The index kept grinding lower but managed a small late bounce to finish down 72 at 4899.
It wasn't a bad day in the end, the small caps didn't really recover but the large caps fell through the day. I did buy back some Linc at around 288 as the buying returned.
Out of the trading short in Lynas but it looks like one to play from the short side again tomorrow.
New high and a reversal....although not incredibly stretched.

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