Friday, April 29, 2011

Still the beat goes on. Fri Apr 30

Another good US lead ignored as the currency and interest rate henchmen put their steel capped boots into the Aussie market. A fleeting 2 point rise has turned into a 29 point drop at the 40 minute mark. Another day, another stop out as I sold Linc at 275. My last long position in Toll is holding support and with oil prices flat over the last couple of weeks, this transport company is a beneficiary of a strong AUD. Most stocks are off so the lucky escape may be short lived.
Overall, it's a good start to the day. All my short positions are lower, Fortescue by 3%, and I've added a short in Oil Search. I think it is making a head and shoulders type top so there could be some momentum to a fall. Stop is in the high 730s and my entry is at 718. Not an excellent stop - 3% - so I'd probably actually use yesterday's high of 728 which is a swing high on the 60 minute chart. Here's the daily.
12.03 The rot stopped at 4803 when the Asx 200 was down 70. The loss is 49 points now, although it seems pretty likely that the recent 4789 low will be broken in the next few days.













A fair few stocks have already broken their equivalent lows. Here's Fortescue.

I bought back about 10-15% of my short positions fairly near to those lows with the exception of Boral where I added to the short at 493. It seems to have escaped notice lately but I have the feeling that support is weakening. It's tending to close towards the day's lows. This latest short is more exploratory though, it's not a great entry point, it's more that I want to get a feel for the support or lack of it.

2.40 The index just made a new low at 4797 although it has bounced a handful of points from there. Boral is hanging in at 493 so I may not get the break I was hoping for today. Osh has slipped further and is 700 offered now.

4.08 It looks like 4800 has held for now, with the index 4819 approaching the match. Most of the stocks I'm short edged back up but Boral is closing at 492, its lowest level since early February.
That's the end of April and a better day to finish off. The final level for the Asx 200 was 4823, down 50.

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