Look before you leap. Wed Mar 31

It's the end of the first quarter today and with very little in the way of direction from overnight trading, any market moves today are liable to be influenced by window dressing. It has been a meandering day which slipped from mildly positive to mildly negative after the release of building approvals and retail trade figures for February. Halfway through the trading day we're down 8 points.
I've put on a short trade in Alumina which is not a vintage trade but just about stacks up on a quiet day. The stock has had a lukewarm bounce over the last month and is just bouncing back from a minor sell off but remains short of recent highs. I've sold short at 173.5 because my stop is a cent or so above the recent 176.5 high and a modest pullback should take the stock down towards the low to mid 160s. Since, I think that there's conservatively a 50% chance of that happening but the risk reward equation is 2 to 1 in my favour then the trade passes muster.

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