Friday, March 26, 2010

Anticipation. Fri Mar 21

I've been weighing up the pros and cons of entering positions on a pullback at a preset level versus waiting for confirmation. It's as much to do with what I'm going to feel comfortable with as what is technically the best.
Anyway, this morning I decided that I would buy Lihir Gold if it traded around 300. The logic is that it is in an uptrend and the last leg ran from 288 to 323. Most pullbacks won't retrace much more than two thirds of the run up so that gave me a buy level of approximately 300. As it happened, I bought at 299 and luckily enough the stock has bounced straightaway and it now stands at 309.

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Obviously, if my assessment of the trend is wrong then I have to cut. My initial stop level was at 287.
The advantage is that if the uptrend continues then my entry level is generally going to be better than if I waited for confirmation.

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