Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Random walk. Tue Nov 16

Another uncommitted day is upon us, the market is up 9 points at 11.22 am, and as soon as a stock starts to move one way, it tends to trickle back the other.
The overnight lead was of a similar nature with early US gains fading and some more weakness in gold.
I got out of Pru early at 313, for a slight loss, after it bounced from last night's close of 307. I was looking for a quick reversal yesterday and since that's not happening, I'm happy to get out for close to square.
Otherwise, I'm also getting out of the last of my Pna. I've given this a lot of time to push on but it has, instead, formed a trading range. The copper/gold sector is also losing impetus.
11.39 The market is still under pressure and has quickly given up the gains to be down 2. If the market holds it can rally quite quickly though, there's a sort of concertina effect happening with the range shrinking right down and the downward momentum easing.
You can see it quite well in the 60 minute chart with 3 minor new lows having been made within 5 points of each other over the last 5 trading days. You'd really need to see longs capitulate to get some acceleration down. That may happen but presumably longs have been getting out for the last 7 days unless it's all fresh short positions.
Linc had a fall after I got out of my long position last week but it quickly rebounded and I've bought back in at 243 this morning on a 60 minute buy signal. I'm chasing momentum here but it does still look pretty strong.
12.39 The market is now down on the lows and has stretched the bottom of the range by another few points. I'm watching pretty carefully because the flip side of the tightly grouped previous lows is that it makes a nice ledge for the market to drop from if the fall starts to gather steam.
I got out of the Pna at 76 and I'm tossing up whether to get out of Awc too as that fails to hold the previous swing high. It blipped down and rallied back but is now selling off again with the market. I'm almost decided but I'd like to hold on and see how the Hong Kong market opens.

1.13 No comfort from the Hang Seng which is down a little and I'm out of Awc at 207 along with some Aru from the placement at about 113 average.
It's been a tough week or so with lots of small cuts. I'm still resolutely sticking to long positions; partly because it's trickier to short stuff now but more because I can see a lot of charts which are bullish and incomplete.
It's not just that, broadly valuations are quite decent too.
I have to concede to myself though that I'm missing a trick, it's dangerous to always be looking at the market from the bullish perspective and despite a little admin hassle, the best month I had this year was April where I had a good time with short positions.

3.07 The index stabilised and it's back to square. Because the market is chopping randomly, it's one of those times where the less you do, the better so I'm getting away from the screen. I'm happy with the positions I still have.

3.40 I was overly anxious to get into Aax last week, but they held the previous low on the pullback and now they've pushed through the high of the last couple of days. Just bought a few more at 249, average entry level is now around 250 and that's pretty much where it's trading.

4.12 Quite a good turnaround for the Xjo left it with a 12 point rise. It's still small beer but more bullish than the last few days.

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