Friday, November 19, 2010

Frankly, pathetic. Fri Nov 19

Geez, what do we need to see in order to rally? After 45 minutes the market is up 25 points. Bear in mind that a virtually identical fall in overseas markets compared to last night's rise saw the Xjo fall 75 points the other day. On top of that, it was the risk assets rebounding, we had a little buy signal on the Xjo 60 minute chart and we're probably oversold and at the bottom of the range.
Obviously, that's the rant of a disappointed long. My positions are mildly positive. I've added a few here and sold a few there but no real changes.

11.40 I have bought something else. It's Murchison and consistent with the mood of the day, I'm not even sure it's worth writing about. I was thinking about buying it yesterday when I would have had a tight stop but I didn't pull the trigger. Now I've paid 125.5 as it jumps on news that they've secured some financing. It could just be a retracement rally but it's a good chance of getting to the low 140s. Given the target, it's just about a worthwhile risk/reward equation.
12.56 Once again, we're taking the glass half empty (and full of hemlock) approach and having ignored very strong rises in Asian markets yesterday, we're taking a flat follow up as our cue to sell off. Gains are just 13 points now.
It's counterproductive to rage against the market; it's more that I can't quite get a grip on why there is so little enthusism for stocks and why we're continuing to underperform. Our rates are higher, but they have been for some time and the only change in the last few months is a 25 bp rise. The strength in the AUD hasn't previously been a problem and base metals look like recovering from the sudden sell off - the metals stocks were under pressure previously anyway. Valuations are very reasonable, in fact, some of the best I've seen when the market is outside panic mode.

1.05 On further reflection, this is entirely typical. I've seen this happen before and it tells you that there isn't a lot of foreign activity in the market at present. The Aussie character tends to caution and the local market is heavily overbroked and full of house traders. As a tribe, they are very keen to short stocks.

3.03 Back from a visit to the dentist and the market is now down as the malaise continues. More psychosomatic than actual, I think.

3.36 The Asx 200 has recovered to be down 13 while the HK market is down 1.5% so maybe we're actually outperforming. Generally, I'm unsure as to whether the Aussie index has made a higher low or not. I'm fairly confident that the range will hold and that downside is limited so it's a matter of waiting for the tide to turn.

4.10 The weakness in Hong Kong is related to the potential for a rate rise which, apparently, would happen tomorrow.
By the end the Xjo closed down, lower by 11 points. Two weeks of retracement and I haven't had a short position. I'm actually breakeven for the period but skewed to market strength and would love to see my long positions hit support and rally.

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