QE2 was the squib and after all the anticipation the US indices were mildly firmer as the figure of $600 b was in the range of expectations and the mid term election results also came in as expected.
An hour into the trading day and the local market has risen by 27 points and, with the proviso that we may not have seen the real reaction to QE2 yet, I'm bullish about the Aussie market which is finally drawing away from the trading range. It has been helped by the Canadian authoritites knocking back the BHP bid for Potash which was never wildly popular with investors. Bhp is up 3% to 4390 and responsible for 15 points of the rise.
My stocks haven't done a great deal and the biggest positive is to have not shorted Fmg, which is up 15 at 664.
I haven't seen any new opportunities yet. Linc is looking good still while Awe is starting to accelerate. I bought more Awe at 154.5 to try to get a bit more out of the move. It's a short term addition to the existing long with a stop at 152.
1.02 It has been a story of consolidation since the opening rise but the market is up 23 points and a number of the medium resource plays that I watch are doing pretty well. The iron ore producers are doing particularly well, with Ago, Fmg and Mgx all up strongly. Mmx hasn't joined the party but it's still under a cloud.
Gold was sold down twice overnight and twice it recovered the worst of the losses. It's up another $6 in our time zone so it's back in the range of the last 4 days and looks bullish. I'm still long Pna and wondering about buying more. I don't think it's going back to the 73 low and the target would be about 90. With a stop of 72 and a current price of 78, that would still be a reasonable trade.
I've persuaded myself and added some more at 78.
2.31 Thankfully, the Qantas plane that was rumoured to have crashed is simply having engine trouble and is due to land in 40 minutes. Got lucky with a quick buy at 287 and sell at 293.
3.23 Out of Mmx as they announce further delays to their port and rail expansion programme although the upside is that they have reiterated the continued support of partner, Mitsubishi. However, the market is accentuating the negative and rather than wait for my stop which is in the low 140s, I've decided to get out near my 155.5 entry, at 153.
4.04 It turned out to be a good decision to cut Mmx - so far - as it continued dropping and reached a low of 148. The rare earths stocks, Aru and Lyc, are also still digesting the capital raising by Aru and Lyc has come down to support in the high 130s. It looks like matching out at a low also. I'm planning to let it overlap slightly because I think it could be a capitulation. I had an opportunity to see that there wasn't too much support over the last few days and having failed to stop out early it's better to run it since the valuations are very strong and it looks like weak hands getting out. (Could be me tomorrow!)
4.11 The match left us with a gain of 23 points. Slightly disappointing, as was my day, with Lyc wiping out gains from Lnc. Here's the Lyc chart.
4.14 The downswings in Lyc and Mmx have been quite similar over the last couple of weeks with a weak consolidation for 4 or 5 days and then a break of support today. The difference is that Lyc is still in a significant uptrend while Mmx is trying to turn around. Actually, I still quite like Mmx to make a higher low and would like to see it hold 144.
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