There was an ambitious iron ore takeover attempt in a couple of the mid West's smaller players from an inadequately capitalised HK raider yesterday, a lot of reasons for that deal not to go through but perhaps an indicator that there's still a lot of interest in Aussie resource stocks. Straits resources have also accepted an offer for their coal assets.
Merrills have upgraded their copper price assumptions and their valuation for Pna has shot up to 100. Combined with the rebound yesterday in the Pna price and the strength in copper overnight, I might finally be getting some joy with this one.
The US charts are behaving like ours this week (although they've been much stronger over the last few months). The post QE2 bounce is slowly grinding back towards the breakout level. I think the odds favour a bounce off this so although we may not do much today and could test Wednesday's lows, I'm happy enough to continue to be patient.
1.48 Just got back from a couple of hours away and I've been trying to figure out the intraday action. The market worked its way into the black by noon only to reverse and drop 30 points. We're now down 22.
There has been some profit taking in commodities, gold has sold off by 10 bucks and there has been some general nervousness in the region. Technically the Xjo index looks to be neither here nor there. My stocks have responded accordingly except for Pna which is still firm, up 2 at 79.5.
Also, the G20 released a communique and although there doesn't seem to be anything significant in it, it seems like another reason for some weakness.
1.53 Aax is getting closer to support but doesn't seem to be under specific pressure. I'm more concerned about Lynas, which might have completed stage 1 of its bounce. It will tend to move more than most stocks and it has reversed an early gain of 3.5 to be down 3.5.
2.17 Just sold out of my Lynas for 141. A roller coaster trade and a small loser that was a big loser for a while because I ignored my stop. In the end, I've got out for about the same or a little better than my initial stop but it definitely wasn't worth the stress. I'll watch it now and if it can make a higher low then I'll buy a few for a second rally.
The index has been back down to 4691 which is a point of so above Wednesday's intraday low.
Oops, new low now. Down 40 at 4688.
2.24 On closer inspection, Wednesday's low was 4686 so we're just above. Out of Rsg at 143.5. Gold is down $21 and is having a wave 4 correction. I think it might test 1360ish.
2.50 Sold the last 5k of Lnc at 235 after yesterday's high looking like a lower one. Another stock I want to buy again, 210 would be nice.
The Xjo is now down 47 points and is at 4682. It's been sold down all week and it's looking more and more like a failed high. It's a dense trading range that it's back into so I wouldn't necessarily expect carnage. I've been completely wrong on this and I'm definitely struggling to put my finger on why the index is under such pressure.
Valuations are pretty good and the market found a lot of support above 4600 in the last couple of months too and most stock charts that are trending look as if they have further to go.
If the index makes a low above 4640 then I could make the case that it's the early stages of a bigger run where the first part of wave 3 chops back into the range.
Obviously the market doesn't have to fit into any predetermined pattern, it's just nice when it starts to perform in a textbook kind of way because the percentages really improve then.
For the moment, I'm still long Aax, Aru, Cgf and Pna.
4.12 There was some sort of recovery and the index closed down 36 points. I managed to make a few dollars this week which was good as I was 100% long and the market fell all week. I'm still 100% long so I wouldn't mind a couple of up days.
No comments:
Post a Comment