Monday, November 1, 2010

The phoney war. Mon Nov 1

Once again it was a nondescript trading session in the US with the indices barely changed although gold did rebound some more. The Aussie market continues to reverse, almost on a daily basis, and after selling off 23 points on Friday, we're now up 35 points after an hour and twenty minutes.
My strategy is to wait until the QE2 decision is made and to reduce exposure in the interim but I haven't done that yet. I actually added to two quite small long positions once they confirmed some strength.
One is in Pna, where it looks as if there could be a double bottom at 73. Bought a few more at 75 to add to Friday's small purchase at 74.5.













The other is in Murchison at 158 after it showed some strength, approximately where I hoped it would.

12.26 Still about where we were an hour ago, up 38 points. I have, at last, managed to trim some positions. Sold a handful of Awe at 151 and Lnc at 196.5.

2.25 Linc energy has pushed above 200 again and since I still have most of my stock, I'm quite happy about it. With Lnc, I suppose it's always the prospect that they're going to announce an asset sale that gives the stock a lift but the chart looks hopeful, especially if it can get through last week's high of 203.

Gold miner Intrepid has been sold down heavily today. It's off 20.5 at 145. They reported a quarterly, and there's not a lot of research out on this, but a Canadian broker has upgraded their target so it can't have been too disappointing. Anyway, the old cliche of profit taking is probably actually true in this case. It has had a monster run. I would often be looking to buy some with a stop around the swing high at 141 but the selling momentum looks quite extreme so it's possible that it can fall all the way to support at around 115. Wait and see.
3.53 Iau held a low at 142.5 and has bounced up to 155. I did buy some at 145 for a day trade but got out at 150. Otherwise, it's more of the same with the market having gone nowhere after gapping open.
I reduced the extra Mmx at the same price of 158 after having second thoughts and sold a few of the extra Pna at 76.

4.12 The close of the day saw the index settle up 37 points. It was actually slightly disappointing given some strength in US overnight futures and Chinese markets up 1 or 2%. The Japanese were flat but that was yen related.

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