Monday, November 15, 2010

Leading the pack. Mon Nov 15

It looks like we led the market down for most of last week so despite a big hit to commodities and the Aussie dollar along with softness in US indices, the market is slightly firmer after an hour with a rise of 10 points. With most indices having failed to hold onto the QE2 breakout levels, there's the possibility of a reversal down but for the moment it looks more like a choppy trend channel.
Fortunately, I don't have to trade the index and there are still charts which are cleaner. One of them is Alumina. I took the view that the retracement could hold the recent breakout level of 207. I went long at 210 and I'm looking for about 230. Stop is at about 206.
12.04 After the big fall in gold which started in the Asian session and continued overnight, I was looking for some bargains since it seemed that around 1360 could provide support for gold.
The golds stocks are mostly pretty resilient though and some bids I put in were too conservative. I'm still interested in Perseus and I tossed up whether to buy some at 310 and now regret that I didn't.

Still, I'm encouraged by the action so far today and I've paid 315. My preferred stop would be about 280 which is too far away so I'm using 300 which is adequate because there's a mini swing high (it would be on a 60 minute chart, it's just a wide range day followed by an inside day here) at 303 and then the previous range highs just above 300 from early October. Target would be a new high so there's some room to move although I'd be happy enough with a quick retracement.

12.18 Chinese markets are steady after collapsing on Friday so the Aussie market is gaining some confidence and pushing up a bit further.

3.41 Had an unexpected guest and I've come back to a market which has given back the early mild gains and is now down 6 points. Pru is back to 308 so I could have waited there; most things haven't changed a great deal. Still difficult trading.
Chinese markets are mixed, the Hang Seng and Shanghai markets are down about 0.6 to 0.8% but the Shenzehn market is up. US futures are flat.

4.12 A slight uptick left the index down 5 points by the close. The Chinese water torture continues...

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