I've been punting Lynas from the long side but not generally holding much of a position overnight. However, the major US rare earths stock surged 17% last night as investors move to a view that the supply shortfall, which is driving prices, is here for some time.
Lynas has taken off early and I'm long at a tick under 210. I'm chasing the stock because it's shaping up like a 3rd wave with the prospect of a rapid move to new highs. The extended and quite large range correction did overlap the early December highs but not on a closing basis so the pattern is essentially intact. My stop is in the mid 190s.
11.15 The mood change didn't last long and the Asx 200 is now square. Notwithstanding, I'm comfortable with Lynas and apropos the other positions, I'm mostly winding them down. Out of the last few Ost at 241.
12.35 The broader Topix index in Japan is down about two thirds of a percent after a weaker open, while the Kospi and the HSI are down a little also. The Asx 200 has edged back to be up by 3 and it's low volume stuff after the recent action.
Lynas is digesting plenty of stock at around 209 but the intraday chart seems quite bullish. A gap open after two days of consolidation and a reasonable effort to hold most of the gains on a day where there's little conviction. Here's the 30 minute chart.
1.13 I'm out of Resolute at 113.5 for a small profit. They look ok but I'm in the mood to get out of smaller positions and this is one of them.
3.37 Not a lot to add. The index is up 10 in light volume. I've got a buy signal in Djs but I've decided against taking it because I'm not sure that it's likely to move very far. The signal is in the middle of a large trading range and actual trading conditions are sluggish.
Meanwhile, Lynas continues to chop back but it's still clear of the consolidation around 200 as it trades at 206.
4.13 The index closed up 9 at 4652.
I bought some Djs after all; I'm always reluctant to trade what can seem a boring stock but the signal is better than some I've bought lately. Also, at second look, if the slow retracement is complete then a move back to the top of the range is on the cards. Long at 459.
Bld slipped back to 499 and Lyc closed at 206 so they were the two disappointments on the day. I closed out some of my Ozl short at 151 and I'm out of the small Fmg short from yesterday.
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