Culture clash. Thu Mar 17

I was watching the press conferences given by the Japanese authorities and they were so vague that it was easy to understand the lack of confidence of the Japanese public. By contrast, the EU energy minister - and I read on FnArena that he's a tax lawyer - is using the most apocalyptic language he possibly can while the US commentators aren't much better. And now that I have the benefit of cable TV again, I can enjoy the news channels ramping it up for all they're worth.
With deterioration of the situation at Fukishima, the overnight leads are negative and the rollercoaster continues. The SPI is lower by 76 points and it's expiry of the March contract at the open which might amplify some of the moves.
It's a very changeable situation though; the latest is that radiation levels have been dropping steadily for the last 12 hours, there's no immediate threat to human health in the vicinity, and power may be restored to the plant soon which could restart the cooling systems.
Most things came back last night, especially with Moody's driven debt concerns in Europe and poor housing stats in the US. There were pockets of strength in coal and natural gas which is actually quite good for Australia. Our oil and gas sector is increasingly gas focussed.

9.50 Watching CNN, their take is that a US nuclear team is now assisting the Japanese and that the situation is worse than they expected. For example, the US have warned their citizens in the area to move 50 miles away, rather than the 20 or 30 that the Japanese authorities were suggesting.
The overnight sessions seem more spooked, at least it's daylight when we're watching and there's more chance of progress.

10.59 An hour in and the market has recovered from marginal new lows to be down 39. The low was down about 82 at 4477. The Japanese futures contracts is down about 5% so something is built in.
I sold anything that wasn't hit too hard on the match and have generally bought the stocks back at better levels. Have also bought and sold a few Ipl and Lnc which I expected to both perform well after the early sell off. They're going ok now, Ipl is square and Lnc is down 2.

11.37 It's very tricky. Are we going to have a huge reversal day or has the bounced stalled at 65 points from trough to peak?
The news flow from Japan is better, at least.
I've bought Karoon, more an explorer than a producer, but sitting on huge gas reservoirs. It had a long consolidation between 700 and 800, following which it might have had 5 waves down. It's obviously chopping wildly now, along with everything else. I'm long at 646 with a stop around 600. I'm looking for a reversal trade, as all the buys are at the moment.
I've got the stop there but the nature of the market is I'm unlikely to hold much of it overnight if the market tips over.

12.07 Japanese markets have cut the losses in half, down 2%. The Asx 200 is just down 7. I've bought a few Lynas at 184, simply as a high beta stock in case the rally continues.

12.50 The market here is stalled at down 7. It looks quite bullish intraday but it all depends on Fukishima. Helicopters are dropping water and Cnbc are saying that electricity has been connected to the water pumps.

1.21 The market has lost steam, I'm out of the Lyc for a few dollars my way and have sold small amounts of other intraday longs.

2.44 The market is back to square.

2.47 It was short lived but the market is hanging in there, down 3. The number 3 reactor is playing up again so although the pumps are close to getting cooling happening, the situation is fluid.

2.52 I feel like I've dodged a bullet today and I guess I'll be ducking and weaving tomorrow because there are a bunch of potential higher lows forming in the stocks I'm already long.

Here's Bsl.

Awc is similar.

I've been trying to play the bounce for the last couple of days and it's still shaping up to make an a-b-c rally.

4.14 The index had a second attempt to get in the black but couldn't quite make it, down 3. A strong performance given the circumstances and I've held on to most of my positions.

The progress in Fukishima has stalled, they're still using helicopters and fire trucks to spray water and the power restoration has either happened or is about to but I don't think the cooling pumps are back in action. There are plenty of chicken littles willing to say that the sky is falling in but I notice that the more somebody knows about nuclear power and the situation at the plant, the less willing they are to make sweeping statements. The best impression I get is that it's serious and barely under control but the health threat to the general public is minimal for now. What nobody seems to be able to tell us is how bad it could get, ie how much fuel is there to burn?

Nevertheless, as the Europeans look ahead to their trading day, it's probably better than they feared.